URC PREVIEW: Teams searching for cohesion makes Durban derby a lottery

Hollywoodbets Sharks coach JP Pietersen has acknowledged that his team and their Vodacom Bulls opponents are in very similar positions as they head into Saturday’s big Durban derby - they are both struggling for cohesion due to the number of Springboks they have playing for them.

“It is a challenge for most of the South African teams (absorbing the Boks back into the system) but the teams with the most Boks are on the back foot, and at the moment it is the Bulls and us who have the most numbers when it comes to Boks,” said Pietersen.

“Rugby is a sport where cohesion is important, where it is all about how long you can keep combinations together (so they gel). We played together last week (against Saracens) and we won so hopefully we can build on that. Cohesion takes time and I am sure Ackers (Bulls coach Johan Ackermann) is also feeling similar pain to us.

“But it is good to have the Boks back now and from now on we can be one Sharks group together,” he added.

Pietersen was talking after announcing a team that features just one change from the one that beat Saracens 28-23 in a second round Investec Champions Cup game. That change sees Jordan Hendrikse back at flyhalf for George Whitehead, who drops to the bench ahead of a return to Griquas in January.

It has been rare this season for the Sharks to be able to be close to full strength and make such minimal change and that could just lead to them being slightly more cohesive as a unit than the Bulls will be.

HANDRE FACTOR COULD BE SIGNIFICANT

The Bulls played a second string team away against Northampton last week and although their team will only be announced later on Friday, it should be anticipated that Ackermann will bring back all of his Boks.

If that includes Handre Pollard, and the double World Cup winner is in the mood to play, that could just be one big factor in favour of the Bulls, particularly if it is either wet (there is a 25 per cent chance of rain) or, as is likely at this time of the year in KwaZulu-Natal, it is humid, thus turning it into a wet weather game.

At the same time, it is good to see the Sharks backing Hendrikse as they need a consistent game driver and Whitehead was always only a stop-gap and is 36 years old.

It is really hard to call a winner and much might depend on whether the Bulls can build on their last full strength performance, which was the Champions Cup game against Bordeaux-Begles at Loftus two weeks ago. There has been some negativity around the Bulls because they lost that game, but that may show some ignorance to just how good Bordeaux, who are the reigning Champions Cup champions, actually are.

Ackermann’s team will struggle for cohesion in these early weeks of the Bok return but they are sure to start gaining momentum once the combinations start to click.

The question is - how far behind can the Bulls afford to fall on the log to remain in the bracket for a top four finish. If defeat on Saturday is coupled with a DHL Stormers win against the Lions in Cape Town in the early game of the URC derby double header, they are going to be a long way behind their Cape rivals and under real pressure when they go to DHL Stadium for the big north/south derby on 3 January.

WEEK 7 OF VODACOM URC

Leinster v Ulster (Dublin, Friday 9:45pm)

Ever since the Stormers whitewashed them in the first URC game of the season, Leinster haven’t looked like the unit that won the competition last year. Even in the Investec Champions Cup they’ve looked a bit off colour and didn’t always hit their straps in the two Pool games played so far.

By contrast, Ulster have lifted from previous seasons, with their good wins over Sharks and Bulls teams that had their Springboks in tow being statement performances. However, they lost blotted their copy book by losing to the Lions. This should be a competitive game but if Leinster are full loaded they should be backed to win at home.

Prediction: Leinster to win by 8

Cardiff Rugby v Scarlets (Cardiff, Friday 9:45pm)

Cardiff have undeniably been the surprise package in the competition so far (the Stormers topping the log might also qualify but the Cape side have won the URC before). They are currently just two points adrift of the Stormers, in second position, and while Scarlets produced one of the big shock results of the season so far when they thrashed Glasgow Warriors in their last URC game, at home Cardiff should be backed to maintain their pressure on the home side.

Prediction: Cardiff to win by 10

DHL Stormers v Lions (Cape Town, Saturday 3:30pm)

We haven’t seen either team yet but the Stormers should have two of their three current Springbok first choice starters, Cobus Reinach and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, in their side. Damian Willemse is apparently still struggling with a hamstring injury and the 3 January game against the Bulls is his target.

This is the first time the Stormers have played at DHL Stadium since they played the Ospreys in round 2, way back at the start of October, and much will be expected of them by their supporters after their unbeaten run in five consecutive overseas matches and then the comfortable Champions Cup win over La Rochelle in Gqeberha.

The Lions are dangerous opponents though and tend to get themselves up for derbies. The Stormers have only lost one home derby though since they lost to the Lions in December 2021, and that was the game agains the Bulls earlier this year where they missed what would have been a winning conversion in front of the posts.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 15

Benetton v Zebre (Treviso, Saturday 4pm)

Benetton have had a super weird season, with a good win over Glasgow Warriors at the start being followed by what by their standards has been quite a lot of dross. They are even in the rare position of being behind their Italian rivals, Zebre, on the log. Zebre are currently 11th to Benetton’s 12th, with one point separating them. This being a derby it is unpredictable but Benetton are at home so must start as favourites.

Prediction: Benetton to win by 8

Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh (Glasgow, Saturday 5pm)

This is the first instalment of the annual back to back 1872 Cup derbies between the two Scottish teams and this one is being played at the famous soccer venue, Hampden Park, presumably to accommodate the extra interest in the game.

Both teams had a run they should have been happy with in the first two Champions Cup games, with Edinburgh winning against Toulon while Glasgow are flying, with confidence no doubt at an all time high after last week’s massive win over Toulouse.

Edinburgh will be hoping that the Glaswegians overdid the celebrations and might be complacent for this game but that might be hopeful given the derby mentality that often makes this game a tight contest.

Prediction: Glasgow to win by 10

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls (Durban, Saturday 6pm)

Shew, this one is very difficult to call. The Sharks did win last week against Saracens, but it wasn’t a performance to be euphoric about, and while the Bulls shipped 50 points against Northampton last week, that was with a Bulls second string team taking the field.

Few of those players should be fronting again in Durban, which makes the fuss this week about the injuries sustained by the Bulls at Franklin Gardens a bit bizarre. The first choice Bulls team would have been back home preparing for Saturday’s game.

The Sharks have a decent record against the Bulls when it comes to games played in Durban at this time of the year and with just one change from last week, the Sharks might just have a tad more cohesion. Expect it to be close.

Prediction: Sharks to sneak it by less than 7.

Ospreys v Munster (Swansea, Saturday 7:30pm)

Munster took a bit of a hit when they lost at home to the Stormers three weeks ago and their form in the two Champions Cup games they have played since then hasn’t been particularly flush. They did beat Gloucester at home last week but it was a very understrength Gloucester team. But there is a reason Munster are third to the Ospreys’ 13th so the smart money should be on a Munster win.

Prediction: Munster to win by 8

Dragons v Connacht (Newport, Saturday 9:45pm)

Connacht were good when they beat the Sharks three weeks ago, but that game was at home in Galway. The least fashionable of the Irish provinces are seldom the same when they play away from home. But it is the Dragons, who have just five points after six starts and are second last on the log, they are away to so they have a good chance of winning.

Prediction: Connacht to win 7

Log position

1. DHL Stormers 27 points after 6 games; 2. Cardiff 25 after 6; 3. Munster 24 after 6; 4. Ulster 21 after 5; 5. Glasgow Warriors 20 after 6; 6. Leinster 16 after 6; 7. Lions 16 after 6; 8. Vodacom Bulls 15 after 6; 9. Connacht 14 after 5; 10. Edinburgh 13 after 5; 11. Zebre 10 after 6; 12. Benetton 9 after 6; 13. Ospreys 8 after 6; 14. Hollywoodbets Sharks 8 after 6; 15. Dragons 5 after 6; Scarlets 4 after 5.