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rugby21 November 2024 19:55
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MAGESI v MAMELODI SUNDOWNS

- Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024

- Kickoff: 18:00 SAST

- Venue: Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein

For all their domestic dominance over the decade, the Carling Knockout is one trophy that Sundowns have found hard to get their hands on.

Understandably, you might say, given that this is only the second year it has been played, but even the past versions of the League Cup with different sponsors like JPS, Coca-Cola, Rothmans and Telkom largely eluded them.

They have won only four times in 1990, 1999, 2015 and 2019, which was the last edition of the Telkom Knockout before the competition went into a four-year hiatus and Carling came along to sponsor it.

Magesi have played only nine matches as a topflight club and yet find themselves in a major knockout final.

They did not score until their third game but after losing their opening two league matches, have not looked back and are now on a seven-match unbeaten run, including upsetting Orlando Pirates, TS Galaxy and Richards Bay to get to the Carling Knockout final. Magesi played all their Carling KO matches away from home.

Key Betting Insights:

Feeling it in the legs: Eight Sundowns players were in the Bafana Bafana squad over the last fortnight plus two more for Namibia and Zimbabwe and they will only have got back to the club on Wednesday.

The players have had heavy workload for club and country in the opening months of the campaign. Sundowns have played 15 games in three months, which on the face of it does not sound so taxing.

But when you factor in that a large number of their players have been involved in international duty too, you can see why squad rotation is so important for coach Manqoba Mngqithi.

- The unknown: Magesi have never met Sundowns previously and their unfamiliarity does give them a little bit of an advantage. Of course, coaches study other teams in detail these days and have scouts and video analysts pouring all over the relevant data but if you have not met them on the pitch, they still bring an air of mystery to the encounter. This might be of the hopes that underdogs Magesi can cling to.

Betting angles:

- Over 2.5 Total Goals: Magesi’s game is based on a solid defence and then trying to catch opponents on the counterattack. It has worked well over the last months. Clinton Larsen’s team have conceded only twice in their last four matches. But if they are caught early, then it is likely they will crumble and the goals could go flooding in.

- First goal: Even though he played 90 minutes for South Africa against South Sudan on Tuesday, Iqraam Rayners should start on Saturday in a three-man attack for Sundowns against Magesi, along with Lucas Ribeiro and Peter Shalulile. Expect all three to possibly be among the goals but Rayners to pop up with the first. 

Prediction:

- Score Prediction: Magesi 0-3 Mamelodi Sundowns

This really is a David versus Goliath tale but without the Biblical ending. Sundowns should prove far too strong to their rookie opponents and win the first of what is expected to another major trophy haul this season.

MAN CITY v TOTTENHAM

- Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024

- Kickoff: 19:30 SAST

- Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City are reeling as they come into this game following the international break.

The 2-1 defeat at Brighton & Hove Albion in their last outing condemned Pep Guardiola to a fourth consecutive defeat for the first time in his storied coaching career.

They are also in something of an injury crisis with Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Matheus Nunes and Manuel Akanji all withdrawing from their respective national squads over the break while Ruben Dias and John Stones have been missing of late along with long-term absentee Rodri.

Spurs knocked City out of the League Cup with a 2-1 win at home last month but do not read too much into that.

It was a match in which fringe players were used by both camps. Still, psychologically, it will help Spurs’ mindset, especially as they caught City cold with two goals in the opening 25 minutes.

On their last trip to the Etihad Stadium, Spurs forced a thrilling 3-3 draw with a late equaliser.

Key Betting Insights:

Playing catch up: While it would of course be foolish to write City off, they can ill-afford their slump to continue for much longer given the searing pace leaders Liverpool are setting in the title race. 

The gap between the clubs, who sit first and second in the Premier League standings, is already five points as Liverpool prove consistent but City lurch along

- Not sure which Spurs will pitch up: Inconsistency remains a huge problem for Ange Postecoglou’s side, who lost 2-1 to newly promoted Ipswich Town before the international break. Spurs are one of the league's most exciting sides but when they do implode, they do so in style.

Betting angles:

- Over 2.5 Total Goals: Usually these two sides deliver high scoring affairs with six goals in both the last two times they have clashed at the Etihad Stadium and five the game before that. Given Spurs’ freewheeling style, there is every chance it will be another goal glut, just what the fans want to see but enough to see the respective managers pulling at hair that isn’t there in frustration.

- Anytime goalscorer: Erling Haaland had a most productive international break, scoring four of the nine goals that Norway netted over the last week in their Nations League matches against Slovenia and Kazakhstan. The Spurs defence should be better but the 24-year-old is right back in form.

Prediction:

- Score Prediction: Man City 2-1 Spurs

Now is the time for City to return to their winning ways and no one knows that better than Guardiola, who will have had two weeks since their last outing to work out a plan to beat Spurs. Even if they will be missing many players, there is enough quality for City to make the necessary breakthrough against Spurs. 

IPSWICH v MAN UNITED

- Date: Sunday, November 24, 2024

- Kickoff: 18:30 SAST

- Venue: Portman Road, Ipswich

Newly promoted Ipswich finally registered their first Premier League win of the campaign in their last game, beating Spurs 2-1 at home.

It was also their first Premier League win 20 years and lifted them out of the relegation places, albeit only by one point, and it is patently obvious the Tractor Boys are going to struggle to survive. 

The Ruben Amorim era gets underway at Manchester United but for the new manager it has not been the most ideal preparation, as many players were away.

He has been putting the players who did not go on international duty through their paces at the training ground and it will be fascinating to see what impact he has had, even at this early stage of his tenure.

Key Betting Insights:

- Spoil the party: For this game, Ipswich will feel they are away as all the spotlight will be on Man United and their new manager. No better arena for an upset and something that Ipswich manager Kieran McKenna, a former United coach, will have been planning on. The home side have Kalvin Phillips available again following his suspension. 

- After Ten Hag: The Red Devils, despite an otherwise dreadful season, entered the international break in reasonably good form under caretaker coach Ruud van Nistelrooy, who went unbeaten in his four games in interim charge of the first-team and signed off with a 3-0 win over Leicester City before leaving.

Betting angles:

- Away success: The Red Devils are unbeaten in their past five games against Ipswich, and their recent record at Portman Road is two wins, one loss and a draw. Ipswich have had an interesting return to the Premier League this season, only losing one game more than Man United, with five draws.

Half-time score: Each of Man United’s past three away league games have been level at the break. Three of Ipswich’s five home league games have also been drawn at half-time. 

Prediction:

- Score Prediction: Ipswich 0 Man United 1

This will be the first league meeting between Ipswich and Man United since 2002. Since then, the two sides have only faced off once, with Man United winning a League Cup tie 3-0 in 2015. The pressure will be on Amorim to deliver the goods and it is likely to be nervy affair for all but in the end the quality of the Man Utd side should see the squeeze home.

AC MILAN v JUVENTUS

- Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024

- Kickoff: 19:00 SAST

- Venue: San Siro, Milan

Inconsistency best describes the new-look Milan under Portuguese coach Paulo Fonseca. They followed up an impressive 3-1 defeat of Real Madrid at the Bernabeu by frustratingly being held to a 3-3 draw away against Cagliari in their last league match. 

Fonseca’s tenure began slowly and has been inconsistent but there have been improvements. Milan sit outside of Serie A’s top six but do have a game-in-hand that, if they win, could see them within five points of the top-of-the-table. 

Juventus also have a new coach this season and Thiago Motta has looked to freshen up the squad. The Old Lady remain unbeaten in their 12 Serie A matches so far but six victories and six draws has been a frustrating return. They come into the game on the back of defeating Torino 2-0 in their derby match and while they are in sixth place, they are only two points behind leaders Napoli.

Key Betting Insights:

Honours even: Intriguingly, the head-to-head results in the last 39 matches between the clubs at San Siro are level. Milan have won 13 times, there have been 13 draws while Juventus have won 13 times.

Injuries: Juventus has been hampered by injuries, notably to star striker Dusan Vlahović, which could be a significant blow to their attacking prowess. This evens the playing field slightly, as AC Milan have also had injury woes but whose attack is spurred by the in-form American striker Christian Pulisic.

Betting angles:

Under 2.5 Total Goals: Under 2.5 goals have been produced in three of AC Milan's last six outings while four of Juventus' last six matches have seen fewer than three goals.

Both of these teams have been in decent form of late with each only losing one of their last six matches across all competitions. The last head-to-head encounter ended in a goalless draw.

Both Teams To Score: AC Milan has shown attacking prowess despite inconsistent results, with goals in their last three matches. Juventus have netted in four of their last five games. Given their recent form and both teams' attacking capabilities, expect an open game where each side finds scoring opportunities. 

Prediction:

Score Prediction: AC Milan 1 Juventus 1

Juventus have already been to San Siro this season and were involved in a 4-4 thriller with Inter Milan. They are expected to come away with a point again although there is no chance that this will also be a high scoring thriller. The most common result of matches between the two teams at the San Siro has been 1-1. A total of nine matches have ended with this result.

NAPOLI v ROMA

- Date: Sunday, November 24, 2024

- Kickoff: 19:00 SAST

- Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples

Champions two seasons ago, Napoli made a horror defence of their title in the last campaign, eventually finishing 10th and a total of 41 points behind new champions Inter Milan. But surprisingly, they are back up in the lead again and although it is the early stage of the season, Napoli are going to be a force again. 

Roma will be managed by new boss Claudio Ranieri for the first time on Sunday, and a date at Napoli is a tough opening assignment for the 73-year-old. He has come into replace Ivan Juric who was relieved of his duties after a dismal 12-match reign. The former Torino head coach took over in the middle of September after the Giallorossi sacked club legend Daniele de Rossi, and he made a positive start to his reign with two wins from his first three matches in charge but it all went downhill from there.

Key Betting Insights:

- Injury news: Napoli’s big Belgian striker Romelu Lukaku did not play for his country on Sunday, left out for injury reasons as Belgium lost to Israel, though the 31-year-old is expected to be fit to face his former club on Sunday. Eldor Shomurodov, Paulo Dybala and Mario Hermoso are out of action for Roma 

- Can it get much worse?: Roma’s defeat at home to Bologna in their last match before the international break saw them record their worst Serie A start after 12 matches for two decades. They have lost four of their last five league games. Only promoted strugglers Como have picked up fewer points, and a meagre tally of 13 all season led to Juric’s sacking.

Betting angles:

Over 2.5 goals: Three of Roma’s last four league games have produced over 2.5 goals. Roma were beaten 3-2 in each of their last two Serie A fixtures before the international break and a similar outcome could unfold when the out-of-form Giallorossi visit early Serie A pace-setters Napoli on Sunday. In six of the last eight Napoli home matches the sum of goals was over 2.5.

Both teams to score:  Napoli have scored the first goal an impressive eight times out of the last 10 fixtures they have featured in. Roma have got the opening goal in 50% of their last 10 away games and both teams have scored in the last four consecutive away games that Roma played. Also, on Roma’s last three visits to Napoli, both teams have got themselves onto the scoresheet.

Prediction:

Score Prediction: Napoli 2-1 Roma

It all points to a home win as Napoli have won seven of the previous 10 home matches across all competitions, while drawing one and losing two. Roma have won one from their previous 10 away games. Napoli have not lost to Roma in six consecutive home meetings. The stats speak loudly.

CELTA VIGO v BARCELONA

- Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024

- Kickoff: 22:00 SAST

- Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaidos, Vigo

Having surrendered their LaLiga title to Real Madrid last season, Barcelona are moving swiftly to make amends and have taken advantage of the inconsistency of their great rival to open up a six point lead at the top of the table, albeit having played one match more. New coach Hansi Flick is fast restoring his reputation after being the first ever man to be fired as coach of Germany. 

Last season, former Liverpool manager Rafa Benitez was sacked during the March international break with Celta Vigo in a relegation battle but B team coach Claudio Giraldez came in and lifted them away from the bottom three. Since, the Galicians have become a much-improved outfit in LaLiga and have been very entertaining to watch, too, with their 13 matches in the Spanish top-flight consisting of 42 goals. 

Key Betting Insights:

- Bouncing back: Lamine Yamal was absent against Real Sociedad last time out and also did not represent Spain during the international break due to an ankle problem, but there is a slight chance that the 17-year-old could be back in the squad for this match. Robert Lewandowski did not represent Poland during the international break due to a back problem, but he too could play in Vigo.

Looking good: Celta are playing some good football, with an attack-minded coach at the helm. Their young side are certainly capable of asking some questions of the league leaders. But is that enough to translate into points. They have lost three of their last five home games against Barca. It was a positive fortnight for Celta’s Oscar Mingueza. As a reward for his fine form this season from right-back for the Galicians, he started for Spain against Switzerland.

Betting angles:

Both teams to score: A total of that 62% of Barcelona’s games in this LaLiga season has seen both teams score. Barcelona average 3.08 goals per game in the Spanish topflight this season and Celta have scored 20 goals in 13 games in the league since the kick off of the new campaign

Anytime scorer: Celta’s talismanic captain Iago Aspas is the joint top goalscorer for the Sky Blues in this campaign. The 37-year-old right wing is also the second top scorer in the Celta and Barca rivalry with 11 goals. Lionel Messi is the player who has the most goals (14) in past Celta-Barcelona clashes.

Prediction:

- Score Prediction: Celta Vigo 1 Barcelona 2

Barcelona have won 11 and lost two of their 13 LaLiga matches this season. No draws! But their last outing before the international break proved

a 1-0 defeat to Real Sociedad, and the Catalans will be aiming to return to winning ways. But Barca have not always had it easy in Vigo and won 10 of their last 37 visits.


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