URC PREVIEW: Eben and Bongi’s absence presents opening for Bulls

It used to be the season for being jolly and lying on the beach, but for South African coaches and players the festive period has now become a season to be decisive in a phase where their outlook for the rest of their Vodacom United Rugby Championship campaigns could be determined.

That is particularly true of the two coastal teams, the Hollywoodbets Sharks and the DHL Stormers, who unlike the two inland teams will be in action twice over the festive week. While the Emirates Lions and Vodacom Bulls can go for broke this weekend in the knowledge that after this they will put their feet up until the second weekend of January, the Stormers and Sharks are set to clash in Cape Town next Saturday.

In the beginning days of the URC the whole idea of festive season rugby was, perhaps with some reluctance in some quarters, embraced by all the local franchises. In 2022 all the South African sides played twice in the week connecting the Christmas holiday to the New Year one. But it seems it is now only the Stormers who really have the appetite for it, and my money says that this time next year the Sharks might join the Lions and Bulls in showing reluctance to work when everyone else in South Africa, outside of the national cricket team of course, is on holiday.

The concept of Boxing Day and New Year games is of course not alien to northern hemisphere team sports. There are some massive games in the round ball Premier League over that period every year, and it is also derby time in the URC and in the other rugby leagues. However, it needs to be remembered that it is winter in the northern hemisphere, whereas here it is summer holidays and a time of year when families travel long distances to be together.

NO HOLIDAY ATMOSPHERE AT STORMERS

The Stormers in particular won’t be enjoying any kind of holiday atmosphere as they have dug a hole for themselves in the URC that requires two wins over the next week for them to avert potential peril. Fortunately for them this period coincides with several hitherto injured and absent players coming back into the system. By my reckoning, depending on whether Manie Libbok has got through his concussion protocols or not, the only top players the Stormers are missing from their selection mix for this week are Damian Willemse, Evan Roos and Steven Kitshoff (you do have to add the likes of Keke Morabe, Ben Loader, Sti Sithole, Dan du Plessis etc but we’re talking Boks here).

Their game on Saturday against the Lions also just happens to be only their second game of the season at their regular home base of DHL Stadium. Their other two home games, both of which ended in defeat, have been at the Danie Craven Stadium in Stellenbosch (Glasgow Warriors in the URC) and Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Gqeberha (Toulon in the Champions Cup).

The Stormers will be pleased to be home and they have also professed themselves to be enjoying the pressure of effectively going onto a finals footing so early in the season. It certainly isn’t something they are not used to, and as Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu put it, they are always seen as underdogs.

Whether they will still be underdogs going into the new year will depend on these next two games. The Lions are of course a much improved team, and have a chance to get back into the top four if they win. So there’s plenty for the visitors to play for and plenty of jeopardy for the hosts, while what happens in the coastal derby the following week might depend on the footing the Sharks will be on.

HIGH STAKES IN DURBAN

If the Durbanites win the big game of the weekend against the Vodacom Bulls, they might well feel they have leeway to give some of the top players the festive week off. Certainly the Boks, who play a 12 month season now, deserve it.

If I was Sharks coach John Plumtree I’d be telling my players that if they beat the Bulls they can spent the Christmas week with their families and without having to worry about rugby, and that might just be extra motivation for the Sharks against a Bulls team that will come to Durban desperate to correct their disastrous opening to their Investec Champions Cup campaign.

The Bulls may be struggling in that competition but they are styling in the URC and with a break coming up they can throw the kitchen sink, a figurative one that is, at the Sharks. The Sharks got a taste of the derby atmosphere against the Stormers three weeks ago and only just hung on to win against a team that brought it physically but was too error-ridden.

This might be a similar game and the Bulls should see a window of opportunity in the absence from the Sharks team of two injured mega-Boks in the form of Eben Etzebeth, who Plumtree says isn’t quite right and ready to play, and Bongi Mbonambi. The Sharks have several top Boks on their books, and Aphelele Fassi has started to inhabit that stratosphere after his breakthrough international season, but somehow the Sharks just don’t seem the same when in particular Etzebeth isn’t present.

With the derby atmosphere coming to life overseas, the two South African games aren’t the only reason to be spending time in front of the television over the next few days, and the big Irish derby between Ulster and Munster, two arch-rivals, would be a good place to start.

CHRISTMAS PHASE VODACOM UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES

Friday 20 December

Ulster v Munster (Belfast, 21.35)

Shew, Ulster and Munster have had some upheaval in the last year or so - Ulster sacked their previous coach midway through last season while Munster, despite winning the URC in 2023 and finishing top of the log in the most recent edition of the competition, have released Graham Rowntree. Munster got done by Castres in the Champions Cup a week ago so although they did win last time out in the URC, talk of a turnaround for them may be premature. Like the Stormers, they are both inhabiting lower reaches of the table they are not used to, with Ulster currently 10th to Munster’s 11th, but as that indicates it is Ulster who have been marginally superior this season and at home they should have the edge. They were good in the first half against Bordeaux Begles seven days ago.

Prediction: Ulster to win by 7

Saturday 21 December

Benetton v Zebre (Treviso, 15.00)

There was talk this week of Zebre not continuing as the second Italian club but the team from Parma have had a much improved season, as evidenced by their two wins and the fact that for once they do not hold down last place. Benetton though have much more pedigree in their ranks and on their home ground there isn’t two much question of them stumbling in this first Italian derby of two to be played over the festive week.

DHL Stormers v Emirates Lions (Cape Town, 15.45)

The Stormers will be putting out the strongest team they have this entire season, and by a long shot. There are in fact five returning Springboks if you consider that Salmaan Moerat only made his return from injury in last week’s away Champions Cup trip to London, and there may well be more than that. While Stormers assistant Dawie Snyman said in the week that “Manie is still resting”, he didn’t specify whether that meant Manie Libbok will be resting on Saturday at match time. The Bok flyhalf sustained his concussion in the same game as Ben-Jason Dixon, and the blindside flank is a confirmed returnee so who knows, maybe Libbok will be there too when the team is announced later on Friday. If he is the Stormers won’t be too far from full strength and while assimilating players back into a system they haven’t been part of for a while is always fraught with danger, there is a reason the Stormers have a good derby record. The last time they lost in Cape Town was in fact to Saturday’s opponents way back in 2021 and with so much to play for they should edge out a dangerous Lions team.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 8

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls (Durban, 18.00)

Winning momentum is with the Sharks, at least at their home patch of Hollywoodbets Kings Park, whereas the two rounds played so far in the Investec Champions Cup turned into a proper blip for the Bulls. The Sharks were also outplayed last week, but they went understrength to Leicester, whereas the Bulls had no excuse for losing at home to an admittedly fired up Northampton Saints. That of course means the Bulls have something to prove in Durban, and they do have a strong interest in the URC, as they currently hold down third place and are shaping up for another strong challenge. Another thing that may lean in favour of the Bulls is that unlike the Sharks, who have to go to Cape Town next week, this is their last game of the year and they won’t see action again until 11 January. They can go for broke. They have been given a significant opportunity by the absence of Etzebeth and Mbonambi from the opposing line-up, but this is a litmus test game for the Sharks that they need to pass. Just like they did against the Stormers in their last home derby, they should edge a thriller.

Prediction: Sharks to scrape it by less than 7.

Ospreys v Scarlets (Swansea, 19.15)

It has been a bit of a calamitous year for URC coaches, with the Ospreys’ likeable long serving mentor Toby Booth leaving his role this week following the 59-15 defeat to Montpellier in the EPCR Challenge Cup last weekend. He has been replaced by Mark Jones with immediate effect. There’s some work to do as the Ospreys are languishing in 14th place on the URC log. Scarlets are ninth and are experiencing an improved season. A Welsh derby is sometimes hard to predict but the Ospreys are at home.

Prediction: Ospreys to scrape it.

Leinster v Connacht (Dublin, 19.30)

The curve ball for those who want to predict the outcome of this game is that it is taking place a week after Leinster’s second round Investec Champions Cup pool game against Clermont-Auvergne. Leinster are known for the way they target the European competition above all else, but if that suggests a window of opportunity for the visitors, maybe you should hold that thought - Leinster have appeared to be a slightly different animal this season and have been so comfortable in most of their games that they have missed just one possible point in seven games. They’ve banked the try scoring bonus in six of those seven and should do so again.

Prediction: Leinster by 12


Sunday 22 December

Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh (Glasgow, 17.00)

The famous 1872 rivalry between the two Scottish clubs breaks new ground this year as the Glasgow leg of the home and away festive season series of derbies makes its way to the famous soccer headquarters in Glasgow, Hampden Park. That should confirm a much bigger crowd than the one you’d expect at the Warriors’ regular home ground of the Scotstoun, and with Edinburgh not far away, there’s plenty of space for visiting supporters too. The Scottish teams deserve the support as there has been a general improvement in the performances of both teams in the past two seasons. As the reigning champions and on their current form, you’d expect Glasgow to win. Regardless of who wins though, it should be a big occasion worth watching.

Prediction: Glasgow to win by 12

Thursday 26 December

Dragons v Cardiff Rugby (Newport, 19.15)

The Dragons made an encouraging start and in the early weeks they pushed some rated teams but since then they’ve reverted to type and with Zebre making a marginal improvement and winning two of their seven games, it is the Welsh team that foots the log. Cardiff, by contrast, are flying and are comfortably the best Welsh side in the competition, currently holding down a top four place. It’s an away game for Cardiff and derbies are notoriously difficult to predict but it appears Cardiff have the edge in the only URC game to be played this year on Boxing Day.

Prediction: Cardiff to win by 8