URC PREVIEW: SA teams seek and need a statement weekend
Two South African coaches have said it and there’d probably be a third if someone asked the question of Emirates Lions coach Ivan van Rooyen. This is a weekend where we will discover just how serious some of the local sides’ challenge to be among the big dogs will be.
The Vodacom Bulls are the exception when it comes to this being any kind of defining weekend in this Vodacom United Rugby Championship campaign for them.
With respect to Zebre, and while noting we would have said the same thing on the eve of their game last week against the Hollywoodbets Sharks where they very nearly won, they shouldn’t push Jake White’s team at Loftus.
For the Bulls this can only be a defining weekend if they lose to the second last team, and it would be in the negative sense. Such a defeat would signify that not only is Loftus no longer a fortress, but as open to visitors and therefore possible invaders as a train station.
But the Bulls won’t lose. It will be business as usual for them, and they will maintain their challenge for second position, where they will be hoping the Lions can help them out on their visit to the Scotstoun on Saturday night.
FORMIDABLE AND INHOSPITABLE VENUES
For the Sharks, Stormers and Lions this is a round where wins would be meaningful both in terms of who they are against and, in the latter two cases, where they are played. Let’s not forget that the Lions aren’t playing a team that they haven’t beaten before.
They thrashed Glasgow last season. In fact they almost derailed the Glasgow campaign. But it was in Johannesburg.
Scotstoun is a much more inhospitable venue, or as Stormers director of rugby John Dobson put it when referencing the Ulster home ground of the Kingspan Stadium, formidable. Inhospitable and formidable that is to visiting teams.
The home sides would be happy to play their every week such is the voluble support they enjoy from their fans.
The Lions need to win to maintain their challenge for a top eight position. If they do, and beat the champions on their home ground, they will be taken seriously as a threat. In the sense that if you beat Glasgow on their home patch, you can win an away playoff game just about anywhere.
Which is part of the Stormers’ motivation on what is expected to be an icy Friday night at the Kingspan where the weather will be a marked contrast to the heat generated in what should be an intense battle between two sides that have played some epic games against one another in the URC.
BEATING ULSTER AWAY WOULD BE BIG STEP
The Stormers have won overseas. It’s not correct to say they haven’t. Last year at this time they had to beat Connacht and the Dragons away to be sure of a top eight finish and they won both. But as Dobson suggested at his team announcement press conference on Thursday, Ulster in Ulster is a step up from those challenges.
You could probably rank the draw against Leinster in Dublin two seasons ago as their only really satisfactory result at the home venue of an overseas team ranking in the top four.
Ulster are not top four at present but if you look at their team - four players by game time, when Rob McCloskey reaches the double century mark, with 200 hundred caps or more, eight with 100 or more and another who is on 98 - you will join Dobson in wondering why they aren’t challenging for top four instead of top eight.
He could ask the question of his own team, so this is going to be a top game, and if the Stormers win it they will not only have made a decisive step towards not only the playoffs but also probably a top five spot, they will also have injected themselves with the confidence of knowing they can win a big playoff game away from South Africa.
SHARKS FACE A PROPER CHALLENGE OF CREDENTIALS
The Sharks aren’t travelling but given how inconsistent they’ve been recently, with last week’s fits and starts performance against Zebre pretty much a microcosm of their season, a win over Leinster would also be a statement result.
We haven’t seen the Leinster team yet, but it is hard to believe that their coach Leo Cullen would be so reticent to talk about who has returned to Ireland and who has flown out to strengthen the team if it was not more of the latter than the former.
The Leinster team the Sharks play should be stronger than the one that lost in Pretoria and a Sharks win will be as significant from the psychological aspect as it would in terms of the points it would net in their battle for a top two finish.
Other big games this weekend impacting the race for top eight positions are once more in ready supply, perhaps topped by the Connacht/Munster derby in Galway on Saturday afternoon. The logjam is still there and it will be another week of big impact to log position.
Vodacom United Rugby Championship Round 14 Fixtures
Ulster v DHL Stormers (Belfast, Friday 9:35pm)
For much of this week it looked like a Stormers win to follow last week’s against Scarlets - until the team’s were announced. Ulster, playing for their lives as they really can’t afford to lose if they want to stay in the top eight race, have almost all their stalwarts of the past few years, such as McCloskey, James Cooney, James Hume playing for them, plus some players returning from injury.
The Stormers meanwhile were dealt a potentially telling injury blow when they lost their regular captain Salmaan Moerat to a foot injury. There’s also no Deon Fourie of course, and let’s not forget Ben-Jason Dixon’s continued absence.
At the back, with the exception of the injury to Warrick Gelant, it all looks peachy, but it could be that they lack the big cattle they’d have had were Moerat, JD Schikerling, Dixon etc playing. Ulster have more to lose and they are playing at home and that gives them the edge in my book.
Prediction: Ulster to win by 7
Edinburgh v Dragons (Edinburgh, Friday 9:35pm)
After a strong challenge was mounting a few weeks ago, Sean Everitt’s Edinburgh have lost a bit of ground. However, against the bottom placed team, they should make up the two points that separate them from the top eight and resume their challenge.
Prediction: Edinburgh to win by 15
Vodacom Bulls v Zebre (Pretoria, Saturday 2:45pm)
It was an odd experience watching the Bulls win late against Leinster. It was almost an atmosphere or relief rather than elation, and elation there should always be when you beat Leinster. Leinster hadn’t lost in any competition anywhere this season before last week, so beating them was quite an achievement.
And yet it was tempered by the knowledge that Leinster were under-strength, something that really has to change if stadiums like Loftus are going to be filled for games such as that one. This week the Bulls have an easier task, but will be wary of a Zebre team that capitalised well on some of the Sharks’ naive tactics in Durban last week.
There’s one area where the Bulls should completely dominate though, and it is the scrums, and their mauls should make inroads against the Zebre pack too. It is all about the Bulls just playing the right way, something the Sharks didn’t do last week.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 20
Connacht v Munster (Galway, Saturday 4:30pm)
Munster lost some momentum in their fight for a top four spot when they were narrowly beaten by Glasgow Warriors and will need to get back on the bike quickly or their place in the top eight could be under threat.
As it stands, the seventh placed Ospreys through to the Lions in 13th could all overtake the currently sixth placed Munster if they win their games and Munster lose. Irish derbies often get decided by one point and this could be one of those.
Prediction: Connacht to win by one point.
Scarlets v Ospreys (Llanelli, Saturday 5pm)
Scarlets lost a lot of ground when they lost to the Stormers last week but the Ospreys have usurped them as the big Welsh challengers, along with fifth placed Cardiff, for a finish in the upper reaches of the log.
This is an important game for both teams - if Scarlets lose they can forget about the top eight, if the Ospreys lose they drop out of the top eight. A win, by contrast, will significantly strengthen their challenge.
Prediction: Scarlets to scrape home by less than 7
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Leinster (Durban, Saturday 7:15pm)
The question of the week has revolved around which Leinster team is going to the take the field at Hollywoodbets Kings Park - the one that lost in Pretoria last week or the one that is closer to the full strength version of Leinster that Harlequins can expect to face in the round of 16 in the Investec Champions Cup the following week.
Perhaps Sharks coach John Plumtree was on the money though when he said it shouldn’t really matter given how good the Leinster systems are and how good their coaching and preparation is. The one thing the visitors do need to do is improve their scrum, something that is likely as at the very least we do know that Ireland veteran front-ranker Cian Healy is with the squad in Durban.
This should be a close game that could go in either direction but I have a hunch this will be a week where the real Sharks stand up.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 7
Benetton v Cardiff Rugby (Treviso, Saturday 9:35pm)
This is another of those clutch games that will go a long way towards deciding which teams are better placed for a top eight finish when the URC returns in mid-April after two weeks of EPCR round of 16 games and the quarterfinal round.
Benetton are more desperate as they are currently 10th to Cardiff’s fifth, but the points separation is just three so a good Benetton win will see them overtake Cardiff. Another lottery when deciding the winner but Benetton should have the edge in Treviso.
Prediction: Benetton to win by less than 7
Glasgow Warriors v Emirates Lions (Glasgow, Saturday 9:35pm)
The Lions have their own reasons related to their top eight ambitions (remember how there was a time when they were talking top four?) why they need to win this game, but they will also get a lot of support from the two South African sides chasing Glasgow Warriors for a top two finish.
Obviously a Lions win will seriously hurt Glasgow, while helping the two local teams plus Leinster, who are suddenly not as far ahead at the top as they were. The chances of that happening? Well, the Lions were desperately unlucky in Cardiff last week, so they have a chance.
But that’s the thing, SA teams tend to be unlucky overseas when it comes to refereeing and bounce of the ball. They will have to have the calls go their way and the bounce go their way to win this one and that happens too infrequently.
Prediction: Glasgow Warriors to win by 12
