The most eagerly awaited international fixture of the rugby year is upon us and Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus probably summed it up perfectly for those who want to know who will win when he said his team’s chances of winning will depend on how they handle the big moments.
All Black coach Scott Robertson can probably say the same ahead of the third round Castle Lager Rugby Championship fixture at Auckland’s Eden Park, which both teams reach having won one game and dropped one game thus far in the competition.
Last year it was the Boks who won the big moments and the Kiwis that fell short. In both Johannesburg and Cape Town the All Blacks had their opportunities to take control of the game but didn’t. The Boks, as they have done so often in recent years, by contrast thrived in the clutch moments. And it was why they won the game.
This time of course the theatre of conflict has been changed. Also, lest it be forgotten, it is not really about just the one game at a venue where the New Zealanders haven’t lost since 1994. Yes, that’s an extra carrot for the Boks, who want to be the team that breaks an All Black sequence of success at their fortress that dates back to France’s “try from the end of the earth” 31 years ago.
It’s also a motivation for the All Blacks in reverse. There is probably a reason that it has been 12 years since the Boks last played at Eden Park, and why two subsequent Auckland games - Albany in 2017 and Mt Smart in 2019 - have been farmed out to different venues. For much of that period the Boks have been the one team, apart from the 2017 British and Irish Lions (they drew), who might have challenged them there.
The All Blacks want to hold onto their Auckland heritage, meaning the status of it being a venue where they don’t lose. They also have Ardie Savea’s 100th game that they will be wanting to celebrate in style, and that’s before we even arrive at the hurt they feel for having now lost four in a row to their old traditional foe.
But it is usually the last game you play against a team that you remember the longest so let’s not forget that there is another game in Wellington a week later. If the Boks lose in Auckland but win there, they will have prevented the Kiwis from getting the payback they are looking for after losing both in South Africa last year by completing a clean sweep.
MANY QUESTIONS
My money says the Boks may have a better chance at Sky Stadium just because it feels like there are many questions over the selections for Eden Park. Like how Willie le Roux will front at fullback. He did well last time he got to start, which was his landmark 100th game in Gqeberha. But that was against Italy at home. Plus it was seven weeks ago. How’s he going to handle the All Black aerial bombardment?
Erasmus himself also admitted that Siya Kolisi might not be completely ready for this game after his little injury layoff. He wasn’t in the team until Wednesday apparently, which was when it became clear that once again the unlucky man, Jean-Luc du Preez, wouldn’t be able to play.
The coach explained the retention of Jesse Kriel as captain on the basis that the team had initially been named without Kolisi in it, but again doesn’t it come across as a bit odd that he didn’t go back to Kolisi as the leader given he has been the regular captain for so long? It’s not like he’s new to the team.
So it is reasonable to assume he must be quite off if Erasmus can’t entrust him with a role that he has done so often. And again, if Kolisi is half crocked, there’s that other question now being asked more and more - why isn’t the next best fit genuine No 8, Evan Roos, in New Zealand?
There’s another factor that’s different from the norm when it comes to beating New Zealand - the Bomb Squad, with the reserve group being without RG Snyman or the six/two split between forwards and backs that first gave it that name, doesn’t exist for this game. Although Wilco Louw and Lood de Jager should bring some impact when they come on. And it is good to see Jan-Hendrik Wessels, who looks set to become the steady alternative to Malcolm Marx at hooker, back from injury.
When it comes to some of the other selections there are further questions, such as Canan Moodie, who needs to be much better than he was against Australia in Cape Town.
SA CAN TAKE KIWIS OUT OF THEIR COMFORT ZONE
Yet while South Africans may be asking questions about their team’s selection, the same will be true of New Zealanders of the All Blacks. For the Kiwis the last defeat in Argentina would have been every bit as harrowing as the Johannesburg loss to the Wallabies was for South Africans.
Talking of that loss, this is where the Boks might actually have the edge - sometimes since this country left Super Rugby the Boks have taken some time to get used to the tempo of the Antipodean style of rugby. But they got a good taste of it against Australia.
New Zealand by contrast haven’t faced anyone yet that will bring the physicality that the Boks will bring. France were well below full strength, and while the Pumas are physical, they are a lightweight version of South Africa.
The last time the Boks were in New Zealand it was for the Mt Smart game and they were beaten in the first 20 minutes by the furious All Black intensity and tempo, but in that 2023 clash most of the Boks were playing their first game of the international season. It is different this time, they’ve had their dry run against Australia in terms of what to expect from a tempo viewpoint, and it might just be their physicality that is the point of difference.
Those who are writing off the Boks should not forget what happened in the first quarter of the game in Johannesburg. If that is who the Boks are, and they’ve shaken off the nerves that were so evident in Cape Town a week later, they can certainly win. Indeed, if they play anything like that, and extend it to closer to 80 minutes rather than just 20, they will be expected to.
On the evidence we have seen so far this year, the All Blacks have changed their game a bit and may not be as equipped to take the Boks out of their comfort zone as the Boks may be to doing it in reverse. Don’t bet your house on it, for this is Boks v All Blacks, but that may just be the point of difference between the teams.
TEAMS
New Zealand: Will Jordan, Emoni Nawara, Billy Proctor, Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Beauden Barrett, Finlay Christie, Wallace Sititi, Ardie Savea, Simon Parker, Tupou Vaa’i, Scott Barrett (captain), Fletcher Newell, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot. Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Tyrel Lomax, Fabian Holland, Du Plessis Kirifi, Kyle Preston, Quinn Tupaea, Damian McKenzie.
South Africa: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel (captain), Damian de Allende, Canan Moodie, Handre Pollard, Grant Williams, Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Marco van Staden, Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Thomas du Toit, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Boan Venter, Wilco Louw, Loodde Jager, Kwagga Smith, Cobus Reinach, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Ethan Hooker.
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Prediction: South Africa to win by 7.