HIGH RISK AND HIGH REWARD
If this was still the era where everything written appeared on paper, vast forests would have had to be chopped down last week for the repetition of my line that in order to get where he wants to go, Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus would have to be prepared to occasionally take the odd hit.
Well, if there was any hit to the Boks when they won 43-10 at Wellington’s Sky Stadium, let’s just say it’s going to one hell of a day when they don’t take a hit. That game wasn’t taking one step backwards to take a step forward, which was a line used often enough to require the destruction of several hectares of rain forest were this the 1980s.
However, it could well have been, and while last weekend was undeniably a watershed moment spawned from a statement performance, there could still be hits going forward like the one suffered against Australia in Johannesburg and at Eden Park.
For when we praise Rassie for his bravery it is not idle praise - there was a high element of high risk to go with the high reward in Wellington.
Let’s imagine for a moment that instead of Cheslin Kolbe managing to get hold of the ball then grab it on the rebound before running nearly the length of the field to score his intercept try, the All Blacks had instead found the space that pass was looking for and scored. It could then have been 14-0.
Worse still, although it should have been clear from the way that his head was positioned that Kolbe was going for the ball, the Boks, like all teams, know from experience that you can’t really trust referees and TMO’s to always do the right thing. So if the ball had gone to ground, they could conceivably have carded Kolbe.
So 14-0 down with the team down to 14 men could have been the scenario they faced, and while the South Africans gave the impression that it was a day they would continue to be brave regardless, it would have been a long way back from there.
But the Boks were rewarded for their bravery, as they were on several other occasions in the game, such as when Ethan Hooker ran the ball back with that blistering run from deep in his own territory.
The Boks did bring balance to their game by doing what they didn’t do in the first Castle Lager Rugby Championship game against Australia by maintaining their aerial assault over the 80 minutes, but they also took on a ball in hand approach with much of their exiting.
That was the point of difference for the Kiwis between this Bok performance and what they have become used to. If the opposing team is mentally set up to field kicks there is then space offered to the team that unexpectedly runs the ball back.
Not that it should really be that surprising for anyone, as the Boks actually started running ball back when they lost narrowly to France with 14 men in Marseille in 2022.
LESS AFRAID TO LOSE
Were the Boks less afraid to lose than the All Blacks? It was something that was worth thinking about when watching Sky New Zealand’s Aotearoa Rugby Podcast.
Former Blues hooker James Parsons made many points worth thinking about that brought some perspective on why what happened in Wellington did happen, but it was his intimation that the Kiwis have become more fearful of losing than the Boks are that most hit home for me.
Before the two tests in New Zealand there were many who made the point that the All Blacks might be becoming more like South Africa, or at least the South Africa we saw win the 2019 World Cup and the British and Irish Lions series in 2021.
I would argue there had been a change that pre-dated the introduction of ‘Tonyball’, as Boks would not have won the World Cup quarterfinal against France in 2023 had they not played with the sense of adventure that saw them match France’s three first half tries with three of their own.
In many ways that game in Paris was a microcosm of what the Boks have started to become - in the sense that they played one way with Manie Libbok in the first half, and then when they sensed the French forwards had been moved around enough and were tiring, they hit them with their old forward game and Handre Pollard’s control in the second.
Parsons referred to the Boks having “a whole war chest” of different weapons now and he’s right. They can bring a measure of the old way, which doesn’t demand just Pollard wear the No 10 as Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu certainly has the boot to control a game too, and then also take the opposition out of their comfort zone with dazzling X-factor players they have available at the back. As well as, and this is important, a much improved skill set from the big men.
I remember writing a column in 2013 after the Boks lost to the All Blacks in Johannesburg that one of the big differences between the teams was that the Boks didn’t have the mobility or the skill-set of the Kiwi forwards.
That’s not necessarily the case anymore, and although he may be a freaky example to use, for he is arguably the world’s best player when in full form (just my view), RG Snyman’s deft touches for such a big man exemplify that.
The message that was sent to New Zealand is that while the Bok forwards aren’t getting any smaller, they are getting more skilled and they are getting better conditioned and more mobile.
A Bok pack with offloading capability is a scary proposition for any opposing nation, particularly given what is coming through in the Bok backline now, but the All Blacks might also have lost something.
There was a time not that long ago when the most dangerous place for a team playing against the All Blacks to be was in their 22. The Kiwis were masterful at turning over ball and launching long range attacks that netted tries you might consider to be against the run of play.
New Zealand were the kings of attacking from chaos, and if you disagree maybe take a look at a video of some of their big wins over the Boks from prior to the Rassie era - I don’t want to watch it as I don’t want to relive that day, but from memory there weren’t a high per centage of the All Black tries in the 57-0 win in Albany that came from launches in the Bok red zone.
More recently there was the World Cup opener in Yokohama in 2019, where the Boks bossed proceedings initially but conceded a flurry of points in a brief period when play became unstructured and the Kiwis could attack from chaos.
They don’t do that anymore, or not as much as they used to, and the blow to their confidence that may well have started a few weeks after that game, also in Yokohama in the RWC semifinal against England, and the blips that have followed that, have rendered them less prepared to be adventurous.
MOMENTUM BREEDS CONFIDENCE AND ROLE REVERSAL
When the Australian cricket team ruled the test arena in the era of Matthew Hayden and Ricky Ponting about two decades ago it was hard to not marvel at how quickly they tended to score their runs. From the start of their innings they were in attack mode and I figured at the time that it was because they always had momentum and momentum breeds confidence.
You can afford to take risks if you are scoring big every time you go out to bat as an early dismissal would be seen as an aberration, a one-off, and wouldn’t precipitate self-doubt.
But then came the Ashes defeat to Michael Vaughan’s England in 2005, when the hosts made a show of adopting the Aussie approach. David Warner’s emergence after that aside, the Aussies to me never retained quite the same rollicking tempo once their confidence was dented by that series loss and in a different sport the Kiwis may now be making adjustments that limit a previous strength.
By contrast there was a time during the Wellington game where I sent a WhatsApp to a colleague suggesting that the Boks, a bit like the Stormers sometimes are, were more dangerous from inside their own half, or even from near their own 22 given where the first Kolbe try started.
That was based on their failure to convert entries into the All Black 22 in the first half. That changed later in the game, but it was a problem across both Eden Park and the Sky Stadium clashes and if you add up the respective conversion rates the All Blacks, who converted three out of four visits in Auckland and one out of four in Wellington, probably come out tops in that particular stat.
But the Boks are now the team that can hurt you from anywhere and that is a role reversal when it comes to games between the traditional old rivals.
KIWI INFLUENCE IN BOK TRIUMPH MAY EXTEND BEYOND BROWN
There was some focus in New Zealand on the presence of former All Black flyhalf Tony Brown in the elated Springbok coaching box. And rightly so. Brown said in a recent interview that one of the reasons he was comfortable working for the old enemy was because New Zealand didn’t want him. Maybe they should.
Another coach the All Blacks didn’t want is Sharks coach John Plumtree, who was of course an All Black assistant until he was shown the door in a shake-up following the series loss to Ireland in New Zealand in 2022.
Given that Plumtree told me some while ago that his aerial skills were something he had focussed on with Ethan Hooker, because it was a weakness in the youngster’s game when he first started out at the Sharks, it might be reasonable to assume that Plumtree might have had some role to play, along with the members of the Sharks coaching team detailed to work with Hooker on that perceived weakness, in the Bok triumph in Wellington.
For the Hooker of now when it comes to his aerial skills is chalk and cheese compared to what they must have been when it was targeted as a major work-on for him. His confidence in that department played a big part in the Bok win. Of course the Bok coaches would have continued with Hooker’s advancement but it started at the Sharks.
RADICAL SELECTION FOR END OF YEAR TOUR COULD PROLONG CAREERS
Now that the Springboks have beaten the All Blacks in New Zealand by a record score while fielding what was a changed-up team that showcased the depth available and also extolled the virtues of youthful energy, maybe Rassie has the space now to do something I have been thinking about for a while - leave the older players at home when for the end of year tour.
I am not saying all the older players must be left out. Just the ones based in South Africa who are enslaved by the ridiculous 12 month season that has come about because of this country’s commitment to a southern hemisphere schedule when it comes to international rugby but a northern hemisphere schedule at club level.
This is not to denigrate the Japanese league, for by all accounts it is played with intensity and highly watchable, but it is less taxing than the leagues that the South African based players are committed to in the sense that there is a break between games.
It is one of the reasons Rassie is happy for his players to play over there, and Jesse Kriel is the perfect example to use when pointing to how playing in Japan can make you evergreen.
Kriel told me in an interview last year that he wants to play international rugby until 38 and given how strict and professional he is with his diet and training regime, plus the fact he is currently playing in Japan, he may well manage to sustain his effectiveness until the World Cup that will be played in the USA four years after the one in Australia.
Lood de Jager is injured now but if he was fit to tour I’d take him, Damian de Allende too, obviously Kwagga, and Jasper Wiese hasn’t played much recently (neither do I consider him an ‘older player’). Malcolm Marx, because of Bongi Mbonambi’s loss of form, has started just about every test this year, and until this last weekend’s game, where he cooked, he was looking a bit tired.
So if Rassie is comfortable with his emerging hooker backup Marx could possibly sit out even though he is based in Japan just because he is one of the older players who should need management if we want to see him in Australia in 2027.
Cheslin Kolbe is still Japan based so should tour as should Manie Libbok, who is now Japan based. However, Handre Pollard can be classified as one of the older or more journeyed players who is now locally based because he will be back with the Bulls this season. Having played for Leinster Tigers over the past few years he has been on the same treadmill as the rest of the locally based players.
Ditto Siya Kolisi, Eben Etzebeth, Bongi, Willie le Roux (if Rassie has changed his plan to phase him out), Makazole Mapimpi and even someone like Andre Esterhuizen, who will not have benefitted from a proper off-season for the same time period as many of the others. Wilco Louw has also been on the treadmill, so have others. Lukhanyo Am would count except that he has been injured for a while so if considered good enough, his experience could be useful on tour.
Just taking November off wouldn’t constitute a proper off-season and pre-season so maybe Rassie should get some buy-in from the franchises by asking them, in return for having their players all in from December, with no resting protocols then needing to be observed in February or March, to give those players October off.
That would just mean a couple of URC games missed, for you’d imagine the Boks, who only end their Championship campaign on 4 October, wouldn’t be available for the following week’s round of URC games anyway (10/11 October) and then there are only two rounds before they would have to start their focus on what this year is a long end of year tour.
Ideally Rassie should be prepared to follow France coach Fabien Galthie’s lead in New Zealand earlier this year by resting all his top players, but the retention of the world No 1 ranking, which leads to a better World Cup seeding, is important to him. So probably is beating Ireland in Dublin and France in France.
HE HAS A BUFFER JAKE DIDN’T HAVE IN 2006
If Erasmus did send an under-strength squad to the northern hemisphere in November it would not be unprecedented. Jake White did it in 2006, where it will be recalled skipper John Smit was one of the few regular first choice players in an otherwise second string squad.
If you remember that, you might also recall that after losing the first two tests of that tour, Jake was asked by the administration of the time to return home to explain his results.
It was a political move that fortunately backfired when the Boks broke a long win drought at Twickenham the day before his departure for his one day and one meeting trip home, but the whole situation was ridiculous as Jake had asked for permission and explained his selection policy before making his selection.
Like Rassie should be doing now, he was taking charge of the management of his players, and not just leaving it to the franchises/provinces, in the quest to ensure he had a fresh squad for the following year’s World Cup in France. White achieved that objective and more, with a teenager named Frans Steyn getting his opportunity on that tour and taking it so well that he became a key member of the squad that won the World Cup 12 months later.
The same can happen now if Rassie does what France did. France were no doubt helped by being Six Nations champions, and my money says the Boks will be Rugby Championship champions. So Rassie has a buffer that White did not have in 2006, which was Jake’s annus horribilis as Bok coach.
That was the year his team lost 49-0 in Brisbane, and the knives were out for him before an Andre Pretorius penalty to win a game against the All Blacks in Nelspruit saved him.
Unless something unprecedented happens and the Boks lose both remaining Championship games against Argentina, Rassie definitely isn’t under the same pressure for his job as Jake was back then. He has a buffer and can therefore afford to be bold.
And we all know what tends to happen when Rassie is bold - good things come out of it.