Much rides on this weekend for SA teams

The early stages of the Vodacom Super Rugby season are a bit like the beginning phase of the chase for a total of 400 or more in the final innings of a cricket test - you have to take it bit by bit, you can’t think too far ahead and even if you manage a hundred run opening partnership it doesn’t mean you have the game won. Far from it, in fact.

If we pretend Super Rugby is a cricket innings, DHL Stormers coach John Dobson would probably agree that his team is currently about 70 without loss chasing 450, but both batsmen have been dropped a couple of times.

Okay, so the analogy doesn’t completely work as the team defending 450 always wins (up to now that target has never been chased). The Stormers aren’t at that kind of disadvantage, and neither are the Chiefs, the other unbeaten team currently level with them on the combined log. They both have reason to feel happier about life than the teams behind them, not like they are up against it in the same way as a cricket team chasing 450.

WHY THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT JUNCTURE FOR STORMERS

So when does it start becoming meaningful? For the Stormers the real litmus test will probably come at the end of their extended home run. But they can make the need to break their run of tour failures - the win over the Rebels in their last tour game in 2019 was a rare event for them - slightly less of an imperative if they continue their current winning run in South Africa.

And if winning their conference is the initial objective, then the inter-conference games are the most meaningful in the sense that they bolster their own points tally at the expense of a rival. Given that the Jaguares went into the competition as the conference favourites, Saturday’s clash between the Stormers and the Argentine side is particularly significant.

If the Jaguares win, they will go top of the conference and having gone through one of their few remaining barriers (Newlands is one of the few away venues where they haven’t won), their confidence will be boosted and they will have attained momentum that will be difficult to stop. If the Stormers win there will be more than one win between them and the second placed team and the Jaguares will be under pressure.

So it’s not quite significant enough for the Stormers to feel that they have the conference trophy wrapped up if they win, but significant enough for them to feel they have advanced their imaginary cricket score from 70 for zip to beyond the three figure mark.

JAGUARES ARE PROPER OPPONENTS

Of course, a win will mean more for the Stormers than just what it does to the log standings. It will also confirm their right to consider themselves contenders and it will be a massive boost to their confidence and self-belief.

Dobson might be wrong in saying his team is over-hyped. No-one is writing them up as champions in waiting just yet. At least no-one I have read. But when you win your first three games it is a positive, and should be recorded as such. He is right though in saying that his team has been underwhelming to this point, at least in comparison to what they should be capable of, and he’d also be right to say that as opponents go, the Jaguares are a significant step up from what his men have faced so far.

Yes, the Hurricanes are perennial semifinalists and were champions a few years back, but they looked a bit under-cooked when they came to Newlands on the first weekend. The team that beat the Cell C Sharks last week looked a much more assured and competent combination. They have been notorious for their slow starts in the past.

The Jaguares though were finalists last year and comfortable winners of the South African conference. After struggling in the initial years they have grown into Super Rugby, and since last they came to Newlands they have been emboldened by wins on South African soil against the Vodacom Bulls and the Sharks. The Durban game was a 50 pointer.

SHARKS MUST GET BACK ON THE HORSE

Talking of the Sharks, this is a big weekend for them too, as they need to get back on the horse after their first defeat against the Hurricanes. We’d stop short of saying it’s a moment of truth, but the Rebels do have the material, notably a decent pack, to test the Sharks’ perceived vulnerabilities.

If the host team in Saturday’s game in Ballarat (note the early kick-off time) delivers at forward what it delivered against the Waratahs, and the Sharks deliver what they delivered against the Hurricanes, the Durbanites will head to Brisbane and the final match of their tour with two defeats on their record.

BULLS NEED TO WIN BACK THEIR FANS

Then there’s the Bulls, who have played two and lost two so far, but both those games were away. Maybe saying their opening Loftus clash with the Blues on Saturday is their moment of truth isn’t stretching it at all. They’ve lost two away games narrowly (well, relatively narrowly) but in both there were clear problem areas that needed improvement.

The Blues have lost twice at home to good teams but their one away trip so far saw them win comfortably against the Waratahs. It will be a good test for the Bulls, and the crowd figure will test the impact of the two defeats. Loftus hasn’t been the most populous Super Rugby venue in recent seasons and the home team will need to start winning for that to change.

PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS

SOUTH AFRICAN CONFERENCE

Rebels v Cell C Sharks (Ballarat, Saturday 05.45)

This preview is being written earlier than usual to beat load-shedding scheduled for later in the morning so the Sharks team list is not to hand as yet, but it is anticipated that they will have Curwin Bosch back as their starting flyhalf after he returned home to attend to a family bereavement last week. That will be a big change, as will be the return of Thomas du Toit at tighthead. The Sharks appeared to lack something when it came to their forwards carrying against the Hurricanes, but as Du Toit’s return will mean Ox Nche starts, they will have two quite strong carriers back in their team. They may need it against a Rebels team that has South African strengths. This should be a close game with the Rebels perhaps having a slight edge on the basis that the Sharks traditionally struggle more in Australia than they do on the other side of the Tasman.

Prediction: Rebels to win by less than 7

DHL Stormers v Jaguares (Cape Town, Saturday 15.05)

The Stormers by their own admission were flat last week but they were playing at altitude. Not only that, they were playing a 3pm kick-off at altitude at the height of summer. They spoke a lot about it beforehand and their coach is probably right to assume it may have backfired. Some of the players did look like they were managing themselves. The Stormers don’t have the altitude excuse this week and are expected to step it up against a Jaguares team they have huge respect for.

Now that the Stormers have paid rent in a few players - coach Dobson’s words - and those players have game time behind them, the expectation, nay the hope, is that there will be more energy in the home team on Saturday. They also have their loose-forward tyro Jaco Coetzee and Springbok scrumhalf Herschel Jantjies back from injury. That will provide a psychological boost. There’s also the extra 10 points they get from playing in front of their home faithful. My money says that 10 points will be the difference.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 10

Vodacom Bulls v Blues (Pretoria, Saturday 17.15)

The Bulls have persisted with Morne Steyn as their No 10 despite the calls for Manie Libbok to be entrusted with the responsibility on the basis that he is both the future and the player more likely to turn the team into a less predictable attacking force. Their coach Pote Human is right to do that if he is correct about the weather - he says he’s expecting it to rain, which means a more tactical game, to which Steyn is better suited than the younger player.

Unless he has to kick a penalty over from inside his own half to win the game like was the case when he played as a replacement at Saturday’s venue in the second test of the 2009 British and Irish Lions series, Steyn is also less likely to meet the requirements of impact player than Libbok is.

Regardless of the weather the Bulls will be expected to bring more to their game than they did in the two coastal derbies they have played up until now. They’ve had a fortnight off to think about it and work on aspects of their game so Saturday’s game is a litmus test for them. Pass it and the Pretoria public might start believing. Fail it and those Loftus fans that retain interest at least won’t have to worry about traffic jams ahead of future games at the stadium.

If it does rain the Bulls will have the advantage of effectively having played a wet weather type game in their opener in humid Durban. If their forward and defensive play is as good as it was against the Stormers, the Bulls could just scrape this one. And Steyn’s kicking might even be the difference.

Prediction: Bulls to scrape it.

AUSTRALASIAN CONFERENCE

Crusaders v Highlanders (Christchurch, Friday 08.05)

Prediction: Crusaders to win by 12

Chiefs v Brumbies (Hamilton, Saturday 08.05)

Prediction: Chiefs to win by 10 to 15

Reds v Sunwolves (Brisbane, Saturday 10.15)

Prediction: Reds to win by 10