One thing people must know about Rassie Erasmus - nothing the double World Cup winning Springbok mentor does is by accident and is not well thought out and planned.
So, while there is some understandable consternation among Bok supporters that 10 changes have been made to a team that won so comprehensively in the opening Castle Lager Rugby Championship opener against Australia last weekend, a chill pill or two might be in order in the buildup to the return game in Perth on Saturday.
One thing should also be crystal clear - while the bulk of the World Cup winners and double World Cup winners are still playing well and the Boks have continuity at this point that should be the envy of their Rugby Championship opponents, it would be the height of optimism to expect that to remain the case for the next three years.
Like the Argentina team that beat New Zealand last weekend, most of the stalwarts are the wrong and established leaders in the team are the wrong side of 30. Regular skipper Siya Kolisi told supersport.com a few months ago that the plan for players like him and Eben Etzebeth and Bongi Mbonambi is to win another World Cup in Australia in 2027.
“Let’s put it this way, we will fight to stay in the mix, other players will fight to have to take the Springbok jersey away from us,” he said.
And that is the right attitude. Kolisi is arguably playing as well now as he ever has, there is -no sign of any let up from Etzebeth or Mbonambi either, or for that matter the big-engined Pieter-Steph du Toit.
AGE WAITS FOR NO MAN
But we are watching Kolisi at the age of 33, Mbonambi at the age of 33 and Etzebeth at the age of 32. Du Toit is 31, but turns 32 at the end of August, meaning that he will be 35 when the next World Cup arrives in September 2027.
Etzebeth will be 35 too, Kolisi 36 and Mbonambi also 36. There are of course outliers, like Duane Vermeulen and Deon Fourie, who both gave the impression they could play forever, but generally those are old ages for rugby players. Father Time waits for no man, and the ageing process can make a big impact in the space of three years.
Those players are mentioned because they are arguably the four captaincy candidates from the survivors from what we could refer to as Rassie’s Class of 2018 (the year he took over as Bok coach). All four of them have captained the Boks and might have been in the reckoning as alternative captains when Erasmus decided that this was a game Kolisi should sit out.
Instead 26-year-old Salmaan Moerat was chosen, raising some eyebrows no doubt among some fans and pundits.
“Giving Salmaan the captaincy against a Tier One nation will just help him grow as a player,” explained Erasmus.
“The same way we gave Pieter-Steph du Toit two captaincy opportunities, he now understands how to support a captain. He (Du Toit) will help Salmaan, just like Eben and Bongi help Siya. It is not just [about] who is the captain on the day. It is part of the growth of the player.”
But while Erasmus is taking pressure off Moerat by advising that we shouldn’t read too much into the selection, that it is about growing Moerat as a player, it would make complete sense for Erasmus to groom him as a potential alternative captain for 2027.
SALMAAN HAS CAPTAINCY PEDIGREE
The DHL Stormers captain will be 29 when the next World Cup arrives, in the prime of his career. He will be young enough still to contemplate being part of the next World Cup in the United States in 2031, when he will be 33. The same age Kolisi and Mbonambi are now.
Erasmus would have known about Moerat from when he was still involved with the Stormers and the lock was coming through at junior school level, and everyone was made aware of him when, along with Damian Willemse, he was a standout performer and the leader of the Western Province Schools team that dominated the 2016 Craven Week at Kearsney College.
He was selected at the end of that week as leader of the South African Schools team and was later the South Africa under-20 captain. He is currently the regular Stormers skipper and while Steven Kitshoff, who led that franchise to their historic win in the inaugural Vodacom United Rugby Championship, is back in town, Moerat is likely to remain the Cape team’s skipper.
Provided he remains fit, he will pick up a lot of senior captaincy experience in the next three years. Perhaps the biggest obstacle against him, being the established Bok captain by then, could be if Etzebeth retains his form and remains fit, his way into the starting team will be blocked unless he switches to a No 5 role, which is unlikely to happen.
But what if Etzebeth is not still at the top of his game in 2027, and Kolisi is also no longer there? To make the assumption they will be is wishful thinking, and Erasmus knows that wishful thinking doesn’t win World Cups. It is bold decisions and forward thinking that wins World Cups, and on both counts Rassie is a master.
OTHER YOUNG PLAYERS BEING GROOMED
It is of course not just the succession plan for the captaincy that Erasmus will be mulling over. When he was at the Stormers he used to speak about his mission of ensuring there were two good players in each position and then a promising under-20 player completing the triumvirate and he’s doing something similar in each position at the Boks.
And with the leadership of an Erasmus team never down to just one man, it is clear from his recent selections that he is developing a core of young leaders that will be ready to take over the baton from the celebrated giants who may not be around in 2027 and using the experience of the older players to help groom the newcomers.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has played only five tests but he’s already been spoken of as potential captaincy material, while Ruan Nortje, the Bulls captain who plays his second Bok game on Saturday, is also a natural leader.