DHL Stormers flanker Paul de Villiers gave a perfect summation of the unpredictability of Vodacom URC derbies this week - “They are like those derby games you play at school, no matter what the teams have done before, and who is in form and who isn't, they are close and it feels like anyone can win.”
Hollywoodbets Sharks coach JP Pietersen was hanging on to that reality after he announced his team for Saturday’s coastal derby with the high riding Stormers at the DHL Stadium.
“If you look at the last four results in Cape Town we’ve lost but there’s never been more than five points between the teams,” said Pietersen.
“We have come short, but these days it is a match between two teams of 23 rather than 15 and there is not much difference when it comes to whether you are starting or playing off the bench.”
Why did Pietersen focus on the bench? Possibly because some of his best players - Ox Nche, Siya Kolisi, and Grant Williams - are playing off the bench this week.
There’s always been a suspicion that the Sharks will target next week’s return game in Durban, and there was nothing about the selection to suggest otherwise. It looks like the finishers will start at Hollywoodbets Kings Park with next week’s Sharks team likely to be stronger.
That doesn’t mean the team selected for Cape Town can’t win, particularly if the Stormers continue their recent vulnerable form, and Pietersen’s words suggest the bench has been loaded to blunt one of the Stormers’ big strengths - call it a bomb squad, call it a storm squad, but the Stormers have regularly sifted a gear when their bench players have come on.
But that is because they have tended to select a whole separate tight five on the bench, with two locks.
RAPIER VERSUS BROADSWORD
The Sharks bench is loaded with experience, but they have one lock, and he is more of a loose-forward, in the form of Vincent Tshituka on the bench, and a five/three split.
Pietersen spoke about pace and transition, so maybe that is his aim - make it Stormers broad sword against the Sharks’ rapier, which the Sharks nearly got away with under a different coach in Cape Town last year.
But if the Stormers don’t veer from script by playing too far away from their forward strength, they have the pack depth to ensure they repeat what they did against the Vodacom Bulls three weeks ago by wearing down their opponents and finishing strong.
In that sense, their status as favourites is justified in a game where the visitors, languishing in 14th place, need the win much more than they do.
Another team that desperately needs to win is the 11th placed Bulls, who are currently three points and three places off eighth heading into Friday night’s game against 10th placed Edinburgh.
The gutsy win over Pau in France in the Investec Champions Cup last weekend broke the Bulls’ losing sequence and has given them hope, but this is a game that Edinburgh, who went under-strength against Bath last week, have targeted.
The Bulls look stronger on paper but the last time they played in Edinburgh it was in an EPCR playoff game which Edinburgh dominated most of the way. In fact, the Bulls have never won in Edinburgh in three attempts.
That fact should temper expectations in Pretoria, although this is a game the Bulls should be expected to win if they are going to properly challenge for any silverware this season.
LIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD FORM
The Lions play the Ospreys in Swansea at the same time as the Bulls are in action and like the Edinburgh game it is almost impossible to predict - the Ospreys have had some disruptions and off-field deflection of focus with the issues around them being dropped as the fourth Welsh team in this competition, but we don’t know whether that will have a negative impact or a positive one.
What we do know is that the Lions don’t have any EPCR distractions to worry about for the rest of the season, they can just focus on qualifying for the Champions Cup, and they take relatively good form into this game after wins away over the Sharks in the URC, a win at home over Lyon in the Challenge Cup and the draw last week in Perpignan where they were pressing for the win at the finish.
WEEKEND VODACOM URC MATCHES
Edinburgh v Vodacom Bulls (Edinburgh, Friday 9:45pm)
This one is almost impossible to call - the Bulls do look a better team than Edinburgh on paper, and did show a lot of mongrel in keeping their participation in the Champions Cup alive in their win over Pau last week, but have they really turned the corner?
They had to do a lot of tackling last week. Their games against Edinburgh in Edinburgh, which included an EPCR fixture last year, tend to be close. Johan Ackermann has called up a strong team, with Ruan Nortje back to start and ditto Johan Grobbelaar. The Bulls haven’t won on the 4G pitch in Edinburgh and that might mean something.
Prediction: Edinburgh to win by less than 7
Munster v Dragons (Limerick, Friday 9:45pm)
Speaking relative to seasons past, the Dragons are flying, with 16 points and holding down 13 place. They thrashed Scarlets the last time they took the field in the URC.
Admittedly that was at home in Newport whereas now they are travelling, and that makes a big difference, particularly as Munster have a lot to play for after their early exit from the Champions Cup, a competition they usually put a lot of effort into.
Prediction: Munster to win by 15
Ospreys v Lions (Swansea, Friday 9:45pm)
The bookies have made the Ospreys marginal favourites but there is a lot of uncertainty over this game given the ructions behind the scenes at the Ospreys when it was learned that they face the cut when/if the plan to cut the number of Welsh teams goes ahead.
The Lions have a strong team and have won in Wales often enough in the past plus they only had to travel across from France, where they drew with Perpignan in the EPCR Challenge Cup last week. This might be a night for a Lions win.
Prediction: Lions to scrape it by less than 7
Scarlets v Ulster (Llanelli, Saturday 5pm)
Scarlets are rooted to the bottom of the log while Ulster are third, with a game in hand on second placed Glasgow Warriors, and will be hungry for the wins that will keep them in a comfortable position as the competition breaks for the Guinness Six Nations.
Prediction: Ulster to win by 8
DHL Stormers v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Cape Town, Saturday 7:30pm)
Assuming the Stormers have the star players in tow that we expect to return when John Dobson announces his team later on Friday, the depth of the Stormers forwards and their powerful bench should give them an edge.
But derbies are often unpredictable, and the Stormers are going to have to rediscover some of the form that took them to five successive wins overseas at the end of last year. They’ve been a bit patchy at home and if they continue with that patchy form and the Sharks play well there could be an upset.
The smart money though should be on the Stormers making the needed improvements since the Leicester game last week, particularly if Ruhan Nel is back to galvanise their defensive effort.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 8
Connacht v Leinster (Galway, Saturday 7:30pm)
This is a massive game for Connacht as it will celebrate the opening of their new stand in what is now a revamped ground. That should mean that the margin of win that Leinster enjoyed when these two teams met in Dublin three weeks ago (52-17) won’t be repeated.
Connacht will be supremely motivated and it could be a close game. But Leinster should win even though their team selection might be impacted by the imminent start of the Guinness Six Nations.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 7
Zebre v Glasgow Warriors (Parma, Saturday 9:45pm)
Glasgow won 47-10 when these teams met in Glasgow in January and must start favourites now even though this game is at Zebre’s home field in Parma. Glasgow have arguably been the form team in Europe this season and are hot on the heels of the Stormers in second place on the URC log. If the Sharks help them out in Cape Town they could be top at the end of the weekend.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 12
Cardiff Rugby v Benetton (Cardiff, Saturday 9:45pm)
Cardiff have had a bit of a blip after the astounding start that until a few weeks ago had them in the top two on the log. They are now on the cusp of dropping out of the top four and will do so if they don’t beat a Benetton team that is searching for consistency and needs a win to stay in the top eight bracket.
Benetton have won two in a row, but both games were against fellow Italian team, Zebre. Cardiff lost last time out and have won only once in five meetings with Benetton. Much will hinge on how strong the Benetton selection will be.
Prediction: Cardiff to win by 7.