The picture for Bafana Bafana has become clearer as they head into their crunch Africa Cup of Nations Group E clash with Tunisia on Wednesday evening, needing to avoid defeat to ensure a place in the next stage.
Should Bafana win the pool they will face Burkina Faso in the round of 16, while second place would set up a meeting with powerhouse Morocco.
Waiting for the third-placed side in the pool is likely Angola, suggesting that, on paper at least, it would be better for Bafana to finish third than second.
But that is getting ahead of themselves, there is still work to do against a Tunisian side that will be hungry for success having managed just a single point in the pool stages so far, and who know that nothing short of victory will be good enough to see them avoid a dismal early exit.
Victory over Tunisia will see Bafana advance in the top two in the pool. They will win the group if Mali do not beat Namibia in the other match, but in all likelihood they will finish second. This result would leave fancied Tunisia last and out of the tournament.
A draw should be enough for Bafana to go through, though not as pool winners. Assuming Mali get at least a draw against Namibia, Bafana will finish second. Should Namibia stun Mali, Bafana would end in third.
There is a plausible scenario where Bafana can still advance in defeat, though it would depend on the manner of their loss. They were defeated in two pool games in 2019 and beat Namibia, but those three points were enough to go through.
If Bafana finish third on three points, and for this scenario they would also need Namibia to lose to Mali, then they currently have a +2 goal-difference.
They would still advance as long as that goal-difference does not drop to -4, which would require a 6-0 loss to Tunisia. A 5-0 loss would leave them on -3, but still ahead of hosts Ivory Coast on goals scored. Bafana have already netted four times and the Ivorians only managed two in their three games.