Statistical guide to the PSL’s Promotion/Relegation Playoffs

The PSL’s Promotion/Relegation Playoffs kick-off this weekend as second-tier sides Cape Town All Stars clash with University of Pretoria at the Athlone Stadium on Sunday, seeking a win to give them a positive start.

The playoffs also include Swallows FC, who finished 15th in the DStv Premiership, and will be fighting for their top-flight status, with the winner of the mini-league taking their place in the elite league for the 2022-23 campaign.

The winner will be determined by 15 June, giving the victorious side around six weeks to prepare for the new season.

Here is a statistical look at this year’s playoffs.

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

In the first 14 playoff tournaments since the first in 2004-05‚ just four teams from the top tier managed to win and retain their status. But since then, the last three have all been won by DStv Premiership teams, and comfortably so.

The reasons for the failure previously are varied‚ but one of the biggest was momentum. While the NFD teams come into the competition with a successful campaign and winning culture behind them‚ for the Premiership clubs it is the complete opposite as failure and numerous losses eat away at confidence. But over the last three years that has been less of a factor as the quality in their squads has overcome mental fatigue.

A CLEAN SWEEP

Only two sides have managed a full haul of 12 points since the playoffs switched to a league format for the 2011-12 campaign and both have occurred in the last three years.

Eric Tinkler led Maritzburg United to a clean sweep of four wins in the 2018-19 competition as they took on TTM (now Marumo Gallants) and Royal Eagles (now Royal AM). Morgan Shivambu did likewise with Black Leopards in the 2019-20 campaign as they met TTM and Ajax Cape Town. Both were top-flight clubs when they achieved the feat.

THIRD TIME LUCKY?

University of Pretoria will be appearing in their third playoffs series, having failed on their previous two attempts. They reached the post-season competition as a second-tier side in 2006-07 when it was contested by four teams in a semifinal and final format. They reached the decider but lost over two legs to AmaZulu. AmaTuks were a top-flight team in 2015-16 when they were forced into the playoffs and managed only a single point from 12 against Mbombela United and Highlands Park. The latter won promotion. Will it be third time lucky for AmaTuks?

NOT THOSE BIRDS

Moroka Swallows finished bottom of the mini-league in the 2014-15 playoffs but it is a common misconception that they are the same club as the current top-flight Swallows FC. That is not true, they are two very separate entities and the ‘old’ Moroka Swallows still campaign in the amateur ranks. That means Swallows FC are making their playoff debut, as are Cape Town All Stars, who have not been to this stage before.

AMATUKS HOLD SWAY OVER ALL STARS

The University of Pretoria have generally had a dominant record against Cape Town All Stars, having won five of their previous eight meetings (D1 L2). The matches this past season ended in a 3-2 home with for AmaTuks, and a 1-1 away draw in Cape Town. The Pretoria-based side have won three from four at home (L1) with their only blemish a 1-0 defeat in February 2021. All Stars’ only other success in this fixture was a 1-0 home win in April 2017, some five years ago. Since then they have drawn one and lost two in the Mother City. Both losses were by 2-1 scorelines.

AMATUKS ALSO LOOM LARGE OVER SWALLOWS

The University of Pretoria have only met Swallows FC twice before and won both encounters they played in the 2019-20 GladAfrica Championship season. The odd thing about that is that The Birds only lost two games in their final 20 games of the campaign, and both were to AmaTuks. The first was a 2-1 victory at the Dobsonville Stadium and the second a 3-2 success at Tuks Stadium.

FORM IN LAST 10 GAMES?

Swallows’ form has, not surprisingly, been iffy in the last 10 matches, but it is fair to say that results have not necessarily matched performances. They have one win in that time (D5 L4) but have at times looked magnificent until the final third, where it all goes to pieces for them. Three of those four defeats have come at home.

By contract, the University of Pretoria have a single loss in their last 10 games (W4 D5), which came in a 3-2 defeat to Royal AM in the Nedbank Cup quarterfinals. They have not been beaten in the league in 2022. Cape Town All Stars have had a bit of a rocky time, winning four of their last 10 (D3 L3), though not too much can be read into their 1-0 defeat to JDR Stars last time out. They had already been confirmed as finishing in third and were going through the motions.

PSL PROMOTION/RELEGATION PLAYOFF WINNERS

2004-05 – Tembisa Classic (NFD)
2005-06 – Benoni Premier United (NFD)
2006-07 – AmaZulu (Premiership)
2007-08 – Bay United (NFD)
2008-09 – Mpumalanga Black Aces (NFD)
2009-10 – Mpumalanga Black Aces (Premiership)
2010-11 – Black Leopards (NFD)
2011-12 – Chippa United (NFD)
2012-13 – Mpumalanga Black Aces (NFD)
2013-14 – Polokwane City (Premiership)
2014-15 – Jomo Cosmos (NFD)
2015-16 – Highlands Park (NFD)
2016-17 – Baroka FC (Premiership)
2017-18 – Black Leopards (NFD)
2018-19 – Maritzburg United (Premiership)
2019-20 – Black Leopards (Premiership)
2020-21 – Chippa United (Premiership)