Marumo Gallants host SuperSport United in the DStv Premiership on Tuesday night, where victory will take them to the magical 30-point mark this season and potentially out of the relegation quagmire.
It has been quite the turnaround for Gallants since the arrival of technical advisor Dylan Kerr at the club, with the team on a six-game unbeaten run in the domestic league (W3 D3) and having booked a place in the quarterfinals of the CAF Confederation Cup.
It will be easier said than done against a SuperSport team chasing CAF Champions League qualification, but there is a big carrot to be dangled in front of the Gallants players.
A look back in history says the average points total needed to guarantee safety in a 30-game DStv Premiership season is 29. That is if we take ‘safety’ as being one point ahead of the side that finishes 15th in the table and enters the Promotion/Relegation Play-Offs.
That number has been as high as 34 points in the past, which was in the 2008/09 campaign as Thanda Royal Zulu amassed 33 points but still finished second-bottom and were ultimately relegated via the Play-Offs. It is the most a team has managed in a campaign and still gone down.
The other occasions where more than 30 points were needed was in 2002/03 (32), 2005/06 (31), 2010/11 (31) and 2014/15 (31).
In all other seasons 30 points have been enough, and sometimes quite a bit under that mark.
In the 2003/04 season, only 23 points were needed to be placed outside the relegation zone which would make all teams in this current campaign safe. Present bottom side Maritzburg United already have 24 points in 2022/23.
In 2015/16 it was just 26 points needed and in 2009/10 and 2021/22 it was 27. But in 12 of the last 20 seasons (including four of the last five) the magic number has hovered between 28-30 points.
Maritzburg United (24 points from 25 games), Chippa United (26 from 26) and Gallants (27 from 26) are the only teams still below that number this season.
Other clubs still in the range are Swallows FC (28 from 25), AmaZulu (29 from 25), Stellenbosch FC (30 from 25) and TS Galaxy (30 from 25), while freefalling Richards Bay (31 from 25) will not feel safe yet.
TOTAL NEEDED TO FINISH ONE POINT ABOVE RELEGATION ZONE
2002/03 – 32
2003/04 - 23
2004/05 - 30
2005/06 - 31
2006/07 - 29
2007/08 - 30
2008/09 - 34
2009/10 - 27
2010/11 - 31
2011/12 - 28
2012/13 - 28
2013/14 - 29
2014/15 - 31
2015/16 - 26
2016/17 - 29
2017/18 - 28
2018/19 - 28
2019/20 - 30
2020/21 - 28
2021/22 - 27
Average: 29 points