Five reasons why Bafana will win in Liberia

Bafana Bafana face a must-win clash in Liberia on Tuesday in their bid to qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations finals in Ivory Coast next January, having let a crucial lead slip in the home fixture on Friday.

A victory for either side will put them through to the finals and eliminate the other from contention, making this a high stakes winners-takes-all contest.

We provide five reasons why Bafana will triumph.

THE BETTER SIDE

First and foremost, man-for-man they are the better team by some distance, as they showed for 70 minutes in the home game. They created chance after chance and might easily have led 5-0 at that point, a scoreline that would have flattered the visitors! But when they mentally switched off, that allowed Liberia back into the game and you would expect that won’t happen two games in a row.

PAST EXPERIENCE

Bafana Bafana have been here twice before in recent times and those ended in bitter disappointment, but you would hope the lessons were learnt from those experiences. They went to Sudan in March 2021 needing just a draw to qualify for the finals in Cameroon. But two first half goals as they were passive in the opening period allowed the Sudanese to win 2-0 and qualify instead. In the qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup they went to Ghana needing just a draw in their final pool game to advance to the third round, but ended up losing 1-0 in November 2021. They were bullied on the ball in that game and Liberia will try to do the same this time round. Bafana will surely have learnt their lesson.

A POTENT ATTACK

A front three of Percy Tau, Lyle Foster and Bongokuhle Hlongwane has goals in it and they will surely not be as wasteful as they were in Orlando on Friday two games in a row. All three are quality players and in excellent form for their clubs. They will need to cope with an artificial surface, which is different to playing on grass, but if they can find even a semblance of sharpness can take the game away from Liberia.

TACTICAL PLANS

Bafana have the more experienced and tactical coach in the dugout and in fairness to Hugo Broos, he read the game perfectly in the first match. The team was set up to perfection and had they taken their chances, would have been out of sight. He cannot put the ball into the net for the players, and no-one can quibble about his team selection. There were some mutters about substitutions, but he also has to manage two games in five days and ensure there is enough in the tank for the second fixture. He will know what to do in Monrovia, the question is whether the players can deliver on his plans.

LIBERIA OVER-CONFIDENT?

Liberia will be whipped up into a frenzy with a full house expected in Monrovia, an association desperate to see them win and a coach who has basically already stated that they have qualified ahead of the game. All this can go one of two players – inspire the players or pile the pressure on them. If they fail to beat Bafana at home that will certainly be viewed in a dim light by all, and how the players react during the game will be important. It is a time for calm heads on both sides, will a frenzied Liberia keep theirs?

Group K Permutations 

Morocco have qualified for the 2023 edition of the Africa Cup of Nations. They are heading to their 19th AFCON Finals and their 4th in a row.

Victory for Liberia will see them through to their first AFCON tournament since 2002 and third in total, also qualified in 1996. In this scenario, Liberia will go through as they will have a better head- to- head against South Africa. 

Victory for South Africa will see them through to their first AFCON tournament since 2019 and eleventh in total. In this scenario, they will reach four points and will have a superior head-to-head against Liberia, as they would have won away from home.

A draw will mean that the team who joins Morocco in the Cote d’ Ivoire will most likely be known after South Africa hosts Morocco in June.

Regulations in case of Equality between two teams:

14.1 In case of equality between two teams at the end of the group matches, the teams will be ranked according to the following criteria in the order listed below:

14.1.1 The greatest number of points obtained in the matches between the two teams concerned;

14.1.2 The best goal difference in the matches between the two teams concerned;

14.1.3 The greatest number of away goals scored in the direct encounters between the two concerned teams;

14.1.4 The goal difference in all group matches;

14.1.5 The greatest number of goals scored in all group matches

14.1.6 A drawing of lots conducted by the Organising Committee