Uefa Champions League Matchday 8: What the stats say

Liverpool and Barcelona have already sealed qualification to the Last 16, while Arsenal – although not mathematically assured of following suit – have done so in 100 per cent of the 10 000 simulations of MD8 ran by Opta. Catch all the action live on SuperSport.

Reigning champions Real Madrid have confirmed their place in the knockout stages, but have just a three per cent chance of qualifying directly to this season’s Last 16. The likeliest finish for Carlo Ancelotti’s side is 11th.

Aston Villa are one of the eight sides who have at least a one-in-two chance of finishing in the top eight, with Unai Emery’s side given a 53 per cent chance of doing so ahead of their meeting with Celtic.

Ahead of their home game against Club Brugge, Manchester City face a 36 per cent chance of being eliminated from this season’s league phase. Only two sides who are yet to have been eliminated currently have a higher chance of missing out on qualification: Dinamo Zagreb (85 per cent) and Shakhtar Donetsk (99.9 per cent).

PSV V LIVERPOOL

PSV have never beaten Liverpool in six previous attempts (D1 L5), the joint-most times they have faced an opponent in major European competition without ever winning (D2 L4 v Atlético de Madrid).

Liverpool have won each of their last five meetings with PSV in the Uefa Champions League, only beating Porto (6) more often in the competition.

PSV are unbeaten in each of their last 11 home games in major European competition (W6 D5), since a 2-1 loss to English side Leicester City in April 2022 in the Uefa Conference League.

BAYERN MUNICH V SLOVAN BRATISLAVA

Bayern Munich and Slovan Bratislava will meet in a competitive fixture for the first time; the Germans last faced a Slovakian opponent in European competition in the 1988-89 Uefa Cup, beating DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda 5-1 on aggregate in a round of 32 tie.

Slovan Bratislava will travel to Germany for the fourth time in major European competition, failing to win on their three previous trips (D1 L2), most recently drawing 2-2 with Stuttgart in a 2010-11 Uefa Europa League qualifier.

Bayern Munich are unbeaten in each of their last 33 home games in the Uefa Champions League group stage (W31 D2), the joint-longest such run in the competition’s history, level with Barcelona between November 2009 and November 2020.

BORUSSIA DORTMUND V SHAKHTAR DONETSK

Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in four previous meetings with Shakhtar Donetsk in European competition (W3 D1), most recently eliminating the Ukrainians from the Uefa Champions League in the 2012-13 last 16.

Shakhtar Donetsk have won two of their last three away games against German opposition in the Uefa Champions League (L1), beating Hoffenheim in 2018-19 (3-2) and RB Leipzig in 2022-23 (4-1).

Borussia Dortmund lost 3-2 at home to Barcelona on MD6 of this season’s Uefa Champions League – the German side haven’t lost consecutive home games since April/September 2017, while they’ve never done so within the same season.

BAYER LEVERKUSEN V SPARTA PRAGUE

The only previous meetings between Bayer Leverkusen and Sparta Prague in European competition came in the 2007-08 Uefa Cup group stage with Die Werkself winning 1-0 at BayArena.

Sparta Prague’s only previous win away to German opposition in European competition came against SV Werder Bremen in the 1992-93 Cup Winner’s Cup, going six without a win to such teams since then (D4 L2).

Bayer Leverkusen have won their last three home Uefa Champions League matches without conceding a single goal – they have never previously won four in a row on home soil in the competition, with their current run their fourth sequence of three consecutive wins.

GIRONA V ARSENAL

Girona will face Arsenal for the very first time; the Spaniards’ most recent home game in the Uefa Champions League also come against an English opponent, losing 1-0 to Liverpool on MD6.

Arsenal won their most recent away game against Spanish opposition in the Uefa Champions League, 2-1 at Sevilla in October 2023, last winning back-to-back such matches in the competition in February 2004-February 2006 (v Celta de Vigo and Real Madrid).

Girona have lost each of their last four Uefa Champions League games, failing to score a single goal along the way. No team from one of Europe’s big five leagues has ever lost five in a row without scoring before.

After four consecutive away Uefa Champions League games without a goal, Arsenal won 5-1 against Sporting CP on MD5. They last won consecutive away games in the competition in November-December 2016.

BARCELONA V ATALANTA

Barcelona and Atalanta will meet for the very first time in a competitive fixture – the Italians will be the 159th different team Barca have faced in European competition, the most different opponents of any side.

Atalanta are winless in their last five Uefa Champions League games against Spanish opposition (D1 L4), since beating Valencia in both legs of their 2019-20 last 16 tie (4-1 home, 4-3 away).

Barcelona have won seven of their last eight home Uefa Champions League appearances (L1), scoring 25 goals. Their only defeat was against Paris SG in the quarterfinal last season, losing 4-1.

Atalanta have won all three of their away Uefa Champions League games this season, one of two sides with a 100 per cent record along with Liverpool. The Italian side have won 57 per cent of their away matches in the competition (8/14), the best record of any side to play 10+ away games.

BREST V REAL MADRID

Brest have already lost to Barcelona in this season’s Uefa Champions League, with the last team to lose to both Real Madrid and Barça in their debut campaign in the competition being Leeds United in 2000-01.

Real Madrid have lost exactly half of their 14 away games against French opposition in the Uefa Champions League (W5 D2 L7), only posting a higher away loss rate versus Russian opponents in the competition (57 per cent - P7 W2 D1 L4).

Real Madrid have only lost three of their last 29 games when facing a side for the first time in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League (W23 D3), although one of those did come this season, also away from home against a French opponent (0-1 v Lille in October).

Among teams to have played 50+ games in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League, Real Madrid are the club with the highest all-time win per centage (59.9 per cent - 296 wins in 494 games).

MANCHESTER CITY V CLUB BRUGGE

Manchester City won both of their previous meetings with Club Brugge, winning 5-1 away and 4-1 at home during the 2021-22 Uefa Champions League group stage.

Club Brugge have never won away to English opposition in European competition in 14 previous attempts (D2 L12 – qualifiers included); only RSC Anderlecht (19 games) and Dynamo Kyiv (15 games) have played more such games without ever recording a win in England.

Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 33 Uefa Champions League matches at the Etihad (W28 D5), although three of their last four have ended as stalemates, losing a three-goal lead against Feyenoord to draw 3-3 last time out.

Failure to win this game will see Manchester City eliminated from the 2024-25 Uefa Champions League. Pep Guardiola’s side have thrown away two 2+ goal leads in the competition this term (3-3 v Feyenoord, 2-4 v PSG) – the only side to do so in three games in a single European Cup campaign were Reims in the inaugural edition in 1955-56.

YOUNG BOYS V CRVENA ZVEZDA

Young Boys and Crvena Zvezda also met in last season’s Uefa Champions League stage, with the two teams playing out a 2-2 draw in Serbia before the Swiss side won 2-0 at home.

Crvena Zvezda’s only previous away win against Swiss opposition in European competition in nine attempts (D5 L3 – qualifiers included) came against Grasshopper Club Zürich in the 1990-91 European Cup first round (4-1).

Young Boys are one of only two sides – along with Slovan Bratislava – to have lost all seven of their matches in the Uefa Champions League this season. The last campaign to see a team lose more than seven matches was 2002-03, with both Bayer Leverkusen (9) and Lokomotiv Moscow (8) doing so.

LILLE V FEYENOORD

Lille and Feyenoord will meet for the first time in a competitive fixture; the French side are winless in six previous European games against Dutch opposition, losing the last five in a row (D1).

Feyenoord won their first ever away game against French opposition in the 1962-63 European Cup (1-0 v Reims), but have since gone winless in five games against such sides in European competition (D3 L2).

Lille are unbeaten in their last six home matches in the group/league phase of the Uefa Champions League (W3 D3), including a win over reigning champions Real Madrid this season (1-0). The last visiting side to beat them in the group/league phase was Ajax, in a 2-0 victory in November 2019.

JUVENTUS V BENFICA

Juventus have lost six of their eight previous meetings with Benfica in European competition (W1 D1), only losing more times in such competitions to Real Madrid (10).

Benfica have won all four of their games against Juventus in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League with PSG (2/2) and VfB Stuttgart (1/1) the only other teams to win 100 per cent of their meetings with the Old Lady in the competition.

Juventus won their last home game in the Uefa Champions League, beating Manchester City 2-0 in December. They last won and kept a clean sheet in consecutive home matches in the competition in the 2018-19 campaign, in wins over Valencia (1-0) and Atlético de Madrid (3-0).

ASTON VILLA V CELTIC

Aston Villa and Celtic will meet for the very first time; the Villans’ only previous European fixture against a fellow British club came in 2023-24 Uefa Conference League qualifying, winning 8-0 on aggregate against Hibernian.

Celtic have drawn each of their last three games against English opposition in the Uefa Champions League, drawing 1-1 at the Etihad Stadium with Manchester City in their most recent such game in December 2016.

Only one Scottish side has ever won away from home against an English opponent in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League, with Celtic themselves beating Leeds United in April 1970 (1-0). Since then, English sides have gone unbeaten across the seven such fixtures (W5 D2).

DINAMO ZAGREB V MILAN

Dinamo Zagreb have lost all six of their previous meetings with Milan in all competitions, most recently suffering a 4-0 home defeat in the 2022-23 Uefa Champions League group stage.

Milan have won each of their six games against Dinamo Zagreb, their longest ever winning run against a team in European competition; AC have scored at least three goals in each of their three away trips to face the Croatian side.

Dinamo Zagreb are winless in their last five home matches in the Uefa Champions League (D3 L2), only once suffering a longer run without a home victory in the competition – seven games between October 1999 and December 2012.

INTER MILAN V MONACO

Inter Milan have won their two previous home games in European competition against Monaco, winning 1-0 in the 1963-64 European Cup round of 16 and 3-1 in the 1996-97 Uefa Cup semifinals.

Monaco lost each of their first three games against Inter Milan in European competition but did win their most recent meeting with them in April 1997 in the Uefa Cup.

Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last 12 home matches in the Uefa Champions League (W10 D2), their longest unbeaten run on home soil in the European Cup/Champions League since September 1963-September 2002 (no defeats in their first 28 such matches).

STURM GRAZ V RB LEIPZIG

Sturm Graz and RB Leipzig will meet for the first time in a competitive fixture; the Austrian side have lost seven of their previous nine games in European competition against German opposition (W1 D1), including 1-0 away to Borussia Dortmund on MD4 of this season’s Uefa Champions League.

RB Leipzig’s only previous meetings with Austrian opposition came against FC Red Bull Salzburg in the 2018-19 Uefa Europa League group stage, losing 3-2 at home and 1-0 away.

None of Sturm Graz’s 15 home games in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League have ended level (W7 L8). Indeed, they are the side who’ve played the most such home matches without ever drawing.

RB SALZBURG V ATLÉTICO DE MADRID

RB Salzburg and Atlético de Madrid have met twice previously in all competitions with both coming the 2020-21 Uefa Champions League group stage; the Spaniards won 3-2 away on MD2 and 2-0 at home on MD6.

Atlético de Madrid have never lost against an Austrian opponent in European competition, winning nine of their 10 such matches to date (D1). They’ve won all four of their games against Austrian sides under Diego Simeone by an aggregate score of 12-2 (all in the Uefa Champions League).

RB Salzburg have lost each of their last seven home matches in the Uefa Champions League, including all three this season without scoring. If they lose this game, they would become the first side in the history of the European Cup/Champions League to lose eight consecutive home matches.

SPORTING CP V BOLOGNA

Sporting CP and Bologna will meet in European competition for the first time since the 1998-99 Uefa Cup first round, when the Italian’s won 4-1 in on aggregate after winning both legs of that tie (2-0 away, 2-1 home).

Bologna are unbeaten in their last three games against Portuguese opposition in European competition (W2 D1), most recently drawing 0-0 with Benfica on MD6 on this season’s Uefa Champions League.

Only one of Sporting CP’s last 24 home matches in the Uefa Champions League has ended level (1-1 v Juventus in October 2017), with the Portuguese side only narrowly winning more games (12) than they have lost (11) in this run of fixtures.

STUTTGART V PARIS SG

Stuttgart have lost only one of their four previous meetings at home with a French opponent in European competition (W2 D1), though that did come in their most recent such match, losing 2-0 to Lyon in the 2007-08 Uefa Champions League group stage.

Paris SG have lost eight of their 13 away games in the Uefa Champions League against German opposition (W3 D2), holding their joint-worst win rate on the road in the competition against German teams (23 per cent - level with English opposition – minimum 6 trips).

Following back-to-back victories over RB Salzburg and Manchester City, Paris SG will be looking to win three consecutive Uefa Champions League games for the first time under Luis Enrique.

Indeed, the last Paris SG boss to win three in a row in the competition was Thomas Tuchel in his final three games in charge of them in the competition (November-December 2020).