It would be interesting to find out from Rassie Erasmus if, now that the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Series has been settled in his Springbok team’s favour, his retrospective view on the opening defeat in Johannesburg might have been a blessing in disguise.
There’d be a few reasons for wanting to know what the Bok coach really thinks - as opposed to what he might say for public consumption - after his team recovered from the disappointment of losing an Ellis Park game to the All Blacks that everyone at halftime thought they’d win comfortably to come back and win three games in a row and take the series 3-1.
For a start, he said on the eve of the series kick off that the first game was not a knock-out match. He said that on the basis that he’d had his own experience, and the Boks had had their own experience, of losing opening games and then coming back to win.
They’d done it in the 2021 British and Irish Lions series, where they went down 1-0 before winning the next two games to clinch the rubber. In a slightly different scenario, they lost pool games at the last two Rugby World Cups and then came back to win the overall prize.
Different scenario because after the defeat in the opening game of the 2019 World Cup they did have to go onto a knock-out footing as they had to win all their remaining Pool games to make the playoffs, but there wasn’t any real chance of them losing to their remaining opponents in that phase.
Italy were their strongest challengers. And when they lost to Ireland in a 2023 Pool game there wasn’t any jeopardy from the South African viewpoint as they’d already beaten Scotland.
INTENSE THREE GAME KNOCK-OUT FOOTING HELPED BOKS
The 2021 recovery was intense, essentially two proper knock-out games that had to be won. Roll forward to this last series, and it went up a whole different level - in order to reach the stated aim of winning the inaugural RGR trophy, the Boks had to beat the All Blacks on three consecutive Saturdays.
You don’t need to state that this is a tougher scenario than will be faced at next year’s World Cup because it is so obvious. The Boks’ opponents in the series are ranked as the next best in the world, and even usurped the Boks’ No 1 status on the World Rugby rankings after winning in Johannesburg.
Winning three games in a row, and improving in incremental fashion in each of those wins, against the All Blacks when facing a backs to the wall scenario would have done wonders for the Boks’ confidence and mental fortitude.
Not that you’d imagine they really need their mentality tested after going through so much, but it is the Boks’ proven ability to deal with tough situations, dig deep and come out of them as winners that is one of their biggest strengths.
KIWIS ONLY PROPERLY MATCHED BOKS MENTALLY IN OPENER
That’s something New Zealand were able to cope with only in the first game, which at the time felt like their final and perhaps subsequent games underlined that theory.
For when the Boks won by 15 points in Baltimore, which was the supersport.com prediction by the way, they effectively got the winning margin that is the real difference between the two teams a year out from the next World Cup.
If you disagree with that, think about it - the Boks were 14 points ahead with three minutes to go in Cape Town, a game where they were denied their scrumming strength by the referee, and in the third test in Soweto they were 12 ahead, and had been pushing for a winning margin of 19, before the All Blacks scored a try after the hooter that was consolation only. The five-point losing margin flattered the Kiwis.
And if we roll back to that very first game in Johannesburg, maybe some of the Kiwi pundits, seduced by a five try to one margin, got a bit too carried away by that statistic while losing sight of what they should have seen.
The reality was that for most of that game the Boks were hugely superior in the area that still arguably matters most in rugby - the power game. That the All Blacks were able to ride the storm and capitalise on what in the end was some pretty dumb rugby from the Boks was their statement achievement of the tour.
It felt like a freaky occurrence and neutral observers were mostly in agreement with the South African view - that kind of physical dominance from the Boks couldn’t be denied again and again. And so it proved.
Which cues another reason why Erasmus, if he was honest, might feel he has profited from that Ellis Park loss. It would have proved to him, for let’s not suggest he did not known this already, the value of continuity in selection, of allowing players and combinations to bed in.
That he hadn’t done it before the series started, and in retrospect it might have been an idea to take the first choice team to Argentina for the Buenos Aires game played a fortnight before the RGR opener, was down to circumstances hard for him to avoid given the age profile of his squad.
As beaten All Black coach Dave Rennie asked after the Baltimore game at the weekend, “How many of those guys are still going to be around in 12 months time?” The reality is that we don’t know, which is why Erasmus has to work on his depth, a process that will be resumed now that the big business of the year of beating the All Blacks has been accomplished.
DECISION TO STICK WITH SAME TEAM PROVED AN ASTUTE ONE
The decision to stick with the same team for the second test in Cape Town proved an astute one - the plan had been right at Ellis Park, it was just the execution that was off. The execution was right at the DHL Stadium, which was arguably when the Boks were at their most clinical in terms of taking their opportunities.
They did do that in the later games, and they got steadily better with each game, but even in Baltimore, where they ended with a scoreline that properly reflected their superiority, they left points on the table. And made mistakes that let the All Blacks back into the game when they South Africans should have been out of sight.
Thanks to the Boks moving towards a more all court playing style as opposed to what they’d employed in the first two games, the danger of losing was less. For while the All Blacks consistently scored four tries or more in every game, after Joburg the Boks scored more points than they did. To beat the All Blacks you need to chase a score of a minimum of 30 in each game you play against them.
IN 2009 BOKS WERE ALSO AHEAD BUT ALL BLACKS CAUGHT THEM
The Boks are significantly ahead of the All Blacks, but they cannot stand still. What was most pleasing about the Baltimore win was the way it was achieved with a mix of the Bok power DNA and flair, something Rennie readily acknowledged afterwards. The way the Boks play, the way players like Kurt-Lee Arendse and Damian Willemse run, is definitely not counter to the entertainment value that Kiwis consider so important as they battle for attention space ahead of the League code.
In 2010, the year after the Boks effectively whitewashed the All Blacks 3-0 in cantering to the Tri-Nations title under the coaching of Peter de Villiers and captaincy of John Smit, the Boks, who did not adjust the template that brought them their success, were found out by a New Zealand team that had absorbed the lessons inflicted. Back then it was a similar story to now, they struggled with the Boks’ aerial game and with aspects like the lineouts.
They worked on it and caught up with the Boks. Erasmus is certainly way too clever to let that happen now, but the Boks do need to continue the evolution that was put back on the table, from a game strategy point of view, in the last two tests of the series.
At the moment the gap at the top between the Boks and All Blacks is more substantial than the individual match results might indicate, but as 2010 showed, it sometimes just takes a few tweaks to close the gap.
The All Blacks are less likely to catch the Boks by this time next year though if the Boks, as they can do, continue to move forward and continue to evolve in what will be the last 12 months they have with Tony Brown as their attack coach.
After Baltimore we can again say what we were able to at the end of last year’s successful Rugby Championship campaign - they have the flexibility to their game to be able to win in more than one way. They will want to arrive in Australia next September with that being a fact that is beyond any reasonable doubt.
RGR Series results
Johannesburg - New Zealand won 33-16
Cape Town - South Africa won 33-26
Soweto - South Africa won 29-24
Baltimore - South Africa won 43-28
Tour results
DHL Stormers 21 All Blacks 38
Hollywoodbets Sharks 0 All Blacks 54
Vodacom Bulls 19 All Blacks 50
ADT Security Lions 36 All Blacks 41