We will be able to say it with more certainty if the DHL Stormers get across the line as winners against Ulster on Saturday, but it is starting to look more and more likely that South Africa could end up with three teams in the top five on the final Vodacom United Rugby Championship log.
After a weekend that championed just how highly competitive the competition has become, it was mostly a winning weekend for South Africa, with the Emirates Lions’ rather unlucky win in Cardiff the only exception.
More significant was what the results did to the log, with the Stormers’ bonus point win in Llanelli being coupled with a defeat for Munster that suddenly puts the higher reaches of the log now well within reach of a Stormers team that was near the bottom not long ago.
The bonus point they clinched for scoring their late try propelled the Stormers into the top eight, but just two points separates them now from fifth placed Munster, who have a much tougher run into the end of the season.
The same can be said for sixth placed Cardiff, who clung to their strong position with their narrow home win over the Lions but will have to be much better when they come to South Africa on a tour that features a game against the now resurgent Stormers.
SHARKS HAD NAIVE MOMENTS BUT STILL WON
There were a few anxious moments, in fact many anxious moments along the way, but the top three local sides all hit target at the weekend. There was much lamentation at Hollywoodbets Kings Park over the quality of the Hollywoodbets Sharks’ performance against Zebre, and there was no one more critical of what his team produced than Sharks coach John Plumtree himself.
The Sharks played naive rugby and listening to Plumtree speak afterwards it was clear that they departed from script. That’s not the first time it has happened so it should be a concern.
But the bottom line is that the Sharks did win and they picked up five log points. Once again they also won a close game, coming from behind in the last minutes to clinch it, something they have got right repeatedly this season whereas in the past it was the other way around.
They won by just one point, but even if they had won by more than a hundred, they’d still have got five log points, which means they cut the advantage the third placed Vodacom Bulls had on them by a point.
And for most of the Bulls game against Leinster it looked like the Sharks might end the weekend third. Like Plumtree, Bulls director of rugby Jake White should have been less than enamoured with his charges. Like the Sharks earlier in the day, it was the scrum that got the Bulls out of the constricting noose they were in. \
In their case, it was one monster scrum right at the end of the day that presented David Kriel with the winning penalty attempt.
It was less than the Bulls deserved given how they had been dominated for long parts of the game, and you’d have to say that the Bulls are struggling now to create a fortress atmosphere for visiting teams at Loftus. Had they lost, it would have been their third home loss in the last four games if you factor in the derby defeats to the Sharks and Stormers.
If the Bulls were a bit lucky, the Sharks weren’t - they would have won comfortably had they just tightened up and played more with their dominant forwards. They did at the end, and that’s what won them the game. Before that it was loose passing and some particularly misplaced field kicking that kept Zebre in the game.
ZEBRE ADVERTISED COMPETITIVENESS OF THE COMP
At the same time, while it looked like one of those games where the Sharks, after steaming into a 14-0 lead after just 11 minutes on a steamy Durban afternoon, just thought it would be too easy, you do have to give Zebre credit.
Plumtree was on the money afterwards when he said the way Zebre played was an advertisement for how they have now learned to understand how they need to play. As someone who coached the Sharks and the Hurricanes in Super Rugby, it says a lot that Plumtree believes the URC ranks highly among the competitions he has been involved in for both quality and competitiveness.
Zebre captain Geronimo Prisciantelli delivered as good a performance that Kings Park patrons have seen from a visiting fullback in recent seasons, and had the Zebre held on to win, it would have ranked ahead of even Scotland fullback Blair Kinghorn, playing for Edinburgh, against the Sharks in a wet weather game there in the second URC season.
Zebre had gas out wide and knew how to exploit it, with a bit of help from the Sharks of course, and were abrasive and committed in the tackle. For the team listing second last on the log, they weren’t half bad, and the Wales regional teams are also producing the kind of form this season that is in contrast to what their national team has done.
An example on Saturday was the Dragons’ big effort against Ulster. For most of that game, it looked like Dragons would win, as they were well ahead at some point. But back came Ulster to steal it, and set up an intriguing clash with the Stormers at Ravenshill on Friday night as the win gave Ulster something to play for.
TOUGH ASK FOR STORMERS BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
The Stormers have never won in Belfast, and they have an intense rivalry with Ulster dating back to the inaugural URC season, when Ulster felt they were robbed by the referee in a Cape Town league game and then were beaten by a last gasp Manie Libbok conversion in an exciting semifinal at the same venue.
But it hasn’t been the best of seasons for Ulster, and the Stormers, who may feel that just some of the pressure has been released by their win over the Scarlets, should go to Ulster feeling they have good chance of getting the win that, with four home games to come, several of which are against teams also competing for top eight places, will give them a good shout at finishing where they did last season - fifth.
As it stands, with that home run to come and the Ulster clash their last away game of the season, they look like they should finish quite comfortably now in the top eight, even if the tightness of the log suggests otherwise, as they do have momentum.
LIONS’ CHALLENGE WAS HURT
The Lions hurt themselves, or maybe more particularly the Italian referee hurt them, when they failed to get across the line in the final minutes to beat Cardiff.
But while the defeat has hurt their chances significantly and it has dropped them to 13th, like the Stormers they have a four game home run to come after Saturday night’s crunch clash with the Glasgow Warriors at the Scotstoun, where the Lions’ arch-rivals, the Bulls will be their biggest supporters.
A Lions win will hep the Bulls’ quest for a second place finish.
They weren’t helped in this weekend of fine margins, with Munster being denied by just three points away against Glasgow at Scotstoun. Had Munster won it would have helped the Bulls and Sharks in their quest for second spot.
Instead it ended up helping the Stormers’ quest for a fifth placed finish that would almost certainly mean they don’t have to travel overseas but rather to Durban or Pretoria for a quarterfinal. That’s a fair second prize to what they’d really have wanted, which was a top four finish that would have given them a home playoff.
A top four finish seems a bit distant for the Cape team but the fourth placed Sharks do need to pull up their socks, starting with the visit by a Leinster team that might be stung into a response by the Pretoria defeat, or it might not be.
If there are three SA teams in the final top five it will repeat the feat of the first season in 2021/2022, where the local dominance of the finishing spots helped the Stormers win the title.
Round 13 Vodacom United Rugby Championship results
Cardiff Rugby 20 Emirates Lions 17
Glasgow Warriors 28 Munster 25
Hollywoodbets Sharks 35 Zebre 34
Benetton 21 Edinburgh 18
Vodacom Bulls 21 Leinster 20
Scarlets 17 DHL Stormers 29
Dragons 30 Ulster 34
Ospreys 43 Connacht 40
Round 14 Fixtures
Ulster v DHL Stormers (Belfast, Friday 9:35pm)
Edinburgh v Dragons (Edinburgh, Friday 9:35pm)
Vodacom Bulls v Zebre (Pretoria, Saturday 2:45pm)
Connacht v Munster (Galway, Saturday 4:30pm)
Scarlets v Ospreys (Llanelli, Saturday 5pm)
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Leinster (Durban, Saturday 7:15pm)
Benetton v Cardiff Rugby (Treviso, Saturday 9:35pm)
Glasgow Warriors v Emirates Lions (Glasgow, Saturday 9:35pm)
URC Log Positions (all after 13 games)
1. Leinster 58, 2. Glasgow 49, 3. Vodacom Bulls 45, 4. Hollywoodbets Sharks 44, 5. Cardiff Rugby 35, 6. Munster 34, 7. Ospreys 33, 8. DHL Stormers 33, 9. Ulster 32, 10. Benetton 32, 11. Edinburgh 31, 12. Connacht 31, 13. Emirates Lions 30, 14. Scarlets 28, 15. Zebre 27, 16. Dragons 9.