Springbok rugby reaches a watershed moment this weekend as the world champions play to retain a chance of winning the inaugural Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series and much depends on their self-belief and ability to go to the mentality well one more time and the officiating of Angus Gardner.
The Australian referee was called in to replace Georgian Nika Amashukeli at the 11th hour after the initial appointee fell ill, something that given that Gardner is considered more impressionable and easily influenced than the fiercely independent Amashukeli may be a break in the favour of the All Blacks.
As he has done since the start of the tour, All Black coach Dave Rennie has worked on World Rugby this week, following up what he said immediately after the first test, when he indicated that he felt the Bok scrum that was so dominant for most of the match at Ellis Park was scrumming illegally.
“Scrum wise we’ve spoken with World Rugby over a few issues from our point of view and we think we will be much better (in that phase),” said Rennie at the team announcement press conference where on Thursday he confirmed three changes, including a positional switch, to the side that won 33-16 last week.
The battle at the top 🔝
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The All Blacks head into Test two this weekend having leapfrogged the Springboks on the rankings 👀#SSRugby | #RugbysGreatestRivalry pic.twitter.com/Wu6ihzcUJ2
“That (the scrum) was a massive in for them last week. We think if they’re forced to scrum square and not allowed to step sideways and walk around us, then we will be able to stay in front and we’ll be able to get footie going off that.”
Later in the day, when Bok tighthead reserve Thomas du Toit fronted a press conference at the South African team hotel, he tried not to start another war of words between the two camps, saying that questions around what the All Blacks were complaining about should be addressed to the New Zealand coach. But he did defend the legality of the Bok scrumming, something that has not been made an issue of by referees before, with Matt Carley awarding six scrum penalties to the Boks last weekend.
DRIVE TO DE-POWER BOK SCRUM
There has long been a drive to de-power the all conquering Bok scrum, particularly from New Zealand, who before they struggled against the Boks at Ellis Park were also taken to the cleaners by the England scrum unit at Twickenham last November.
Although there was nothing apparently wrong with Gardner’s officiating of the scrum in the All Black game against the 10Bet Lions on Tuesday, with the home captain scoring a pushover try off a dominant scrum, the question is whether and when World Rugby may have subsequently gotten into his ear. Although the Aussie hasn’t been an issue for the Boks since his failure to award what could have been a match winning penalty to the Boks when England captain Owen Farrell was clearly illegal with a late game tackle on Andre Esterhuizen eight years ago, there is a fear he is easily influenced and swayed.
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Hopefully that won’t be the case for the series is set up perfectly as a showpiece of the sport. There were alleged illegalities in the Kiwi maul defence as well as the way they cleaned out breakdowns (tucked arms) flagged by the SA clubs following the games that preceded the first test. Now comes the scrum allegations from New Zealand, which of course follows on from the narrative from the All Black camp that started the tit for tat about concerns about SA teams slowing the game.
HOSTS NEED TO RETAIN THEIR CONFIDENCE
If it is a level playing field at DHL Stadium on Saturday evening, the Boks will need to rediscover the confidence and poise that saw them go on a 12 match winning streak before it ended in Johannesburg last weekend. Self-belief is a big thing in sport and after last week’s defeat, with the All Blacks scoring five tries to one, it is reasonable to question whether that is dented.
Certainly there is a feeling among some observers that coach Rassie Erasmus hasn’t been entirely himself, although it may be that all the praise and bonhomie, and talk of having drinks with Rennie both after the last game and on the eve of this one, is actually a strategy on the SA mentor’s part. There were accusations of panic when Erasmus called out the most experienced Bok team in history to front on Saturday, but what it really was was an endorsement of a team that with just a smidgen better cohesion could have won the Ellis Park game by as much as they eventually lost it.
BOKS NEED TO BE MENTALITY MONSTERS AGAIN
You don’t win three successive World Cup play-off games by one point if you are not what the former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp would refer to as “mentality monsters.” The question though is whether that mental fortitude might be dented by the disappointment of losing a game they should have won comfortably.
If the Boks do take their pre-Ellis Park confidence onto the field with them on Saturday, and Gardner refs as he sees it and not how he might believe his bosses want him to ref it, then the Boks, given their physical dominance of a week ago which will be difficult for the All Blacks to reverse, have a good chance of winning. They just need to be more clinical when they set themselves up with scoring opportunities.
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They also need to avoid the bad luck that saw so many positional switches made at the back during the Ellis Park game, something that would have contributed to their leaky defence. Erasmus blamed himself for that, saying that he should have planned better around his bench selection.
CHANGES WILL IMPROVE BOK ATTACK
He appears to have his bench sorted this week, with more depth to it, and although Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s elevation to the starting team at the 11th hour because of the hamstring injury to Handre Pollard will rob the impact group of his utility value, the fact that Ethan Hooker has been retained in the team means there is a player who can flit between wing and midfield in the starting team.
Cheslin Kolbe’s late return to the starting team was at the expense of Kurt-Lee Arendse, with Manie Libbok coming onto the bench as Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s cover. While the Boks were looking for a steady tactical kicking performance from Pollard, they do look better set for an attacking game after the changes and much may hinge on how the weather holds up on Saturday.
On the eve of the game the weather forecasters had the chance of rain at 60 per cent, although the chances of rain during the actual game are minimal.
The return to the mix of Kolbe means that the Boks will again be taking the field with two recognised goalkickers, the other being Feinberg-Mngomezulu, with Kolbe having been excellent in that role at Ellis Park.
Teams
South Africa: Damian Willemse, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Ethan Hooker, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Cobus Reinach, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Wilco Louw, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, Lood de Jager, Andre Esterhuizen, Cameron Hanekom, Morne van den Bergh, Manie Libbok.
New Zealand: Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Quinn Tupaea, Jordie Barrett, Leroy Carter, Ruben Love, Cam Roigard, Ardie Savea (captain), Luke Jacobson, Simon Parker, Tupou Vaa’i, Fabian Holland, Tyrel Lomax, Codie Taylor, George Bower. Replacements: Asafo Aumua, Xavier Numia, Fletcher Newell, Patrick Tuipulotu, Peter Lakai, Kyle Preston, Anton Lienert-Brown, Josh Moorby.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Rugby Australia)
Kick-off: 17.10
Prediction: South Africa to win by 6