England face their earliest Rugby League World Cup exit ever this weekend with their fate in the hands of Tonga and Samoa during bumper games that will decide the semifinal line-up.
Ahead of the last group matches defending champions Australia are the only side to have secured a final-four berth while France, Lebanon and the Cook Islands have been eliminated from the 10-team tournament.
New Zealand face Fiji on Australia's Gold Coast on Saturday with the winner joining the Kangaroos from Group A.
The permutations for Groups B and C are more complicated with only two of the six nations from a combined table staying alive.
World No 3 England must emphatically beat Papua New Guinea on Friday in Wollongong then await the fate of a crunch Tonga-Samoa clash in Sydney on Sunday.
If Samoa win, Brian McDermott's men will make their first group-stage exit in World Cup history, given they would be level on points with Tonga but with an inferior head-to-head record.
Should Tonga beat their Pacific rivals, the Tongans would top the table and England's fate would come down to points difference with Samoa, who are currently in a much better position.
Nevertheless England half-back Mikey Lewis said their hopes were high.
"We're in with a fighting chance, we believe that," said the Hull KR star. "We feel it in these four walls."
Tonga lost 34-6 to Samoa at the same Sydney stadium during the Pacific Championships last year.
But coach Kristian Woolf said they had come a long way since, pointing to their 30-12 upset of England to open their World Cup.
"There's no doubt Australia, New Zealand and England are still the tier one nations," Woolf said.
"They're the biggest nations, they've got the biggest player pools and the best resources.
"But we're closing the gap. At this tournament we see ourselves as equal."
New Zealand have recalled centre Dane Gagai and prop Moses Leota, who were rested last week, for their blockbuster winner-takes-all showdown against Fiji.
But coming off a battling 36-22 loss to Australia last week, Fiji captain Api Koroisau is confident his young side can upset the Kiwis.
"I thought we were actually on top of that first-half (against Australia) and had some really good field position and the confidence is really high," he said.
"I think it's just really driven that belief into the boys knowing that they can do it."
In the women's World Cup, which is being held concurrently, Australia are through to the semifinals after big wins over Samoa and England.
Samoa and England face each other on Friday with the winner joining the Jillaroos, while victory for New Zealand over Papua New Guinea will also see them progress.
A win for Fiji over France should be enough for them to advance, although it could come down to points difference if PNG upset New Zealand.