Leinster have only won once in five matches in South Africa since what used to be the PRO14 became the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, but there’s a different context to Saturday’s game at DHL Stadium to what they’ve faced in the previous fixtures in this country.
Whereas in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons Leinster came here either having already secured top spot on the log, or were at least pretty sure of it, and were able to focus on their Investec Champions Cup playoff games at the expense of the pressure of needing to win their URC engagements, Saturday’s clash with the DHL Stormers brings real pressure.
𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱. 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗹𝗲. 👊
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) April 24, 2024
Another big session ahead of Saturday's Cape Town clash with The Stormers. 💥💪#STOvLEI #FromTheGroundUp pic.twitter.com/MA7k3r7mkZ
Not only do Leinster desperately need a big response from their chastening 44-12 defeat to the Emirates Lions in Johannesburg last week in order to get their confidence back, there is also proper log pressure on them now. Failing to pick up so much as even a losing bonus point has left Leinster just one point ahead of the Glasgow Warriors, and there are only three rounds left after this one.
QUASI KNOCK-OUT FIXTURE
Leinster would want top spot that gives them a home passage through the playoffs up to and including the final, so the Cape Town game has become a quasi knock-out fixture as much for the Irish team as it is for the Stormers, The hosts of course are also desperately in need of victory for their Champions Cup status for next season could be on the line if they lose.
The Stormers need to respond to last week’s unexpected home defeat to the Ospreys, so with two teams needing a big performance it should be a fascinating game with much on the line. One thing the Stormers are clear on though is that they expect Leinster to put in a much stronger performance than they did in Johannesburg. And apart from the fact that Leinster did play much better after the lethargic opening quarter that effectively lost them the game, there will be other factors that will help them be better, like the venue and the anticipated conditions for a start.
All to play for against Leinster at DHL Stadium on Saturday in @evanroos4's 50th DHL Stormers match.
— DHL Stormers (@THESTORMERS) April 24, 2024
🎟️ Get your tickets https://t.co/1sjJ1AF9gX#STOvLEI #iamastormer #dhldelivers @Vodacom #URC pic.twitter.com/8y5qIqIsN5
“Leinster definitely isn’t a 44-12 team, you have to factor in that they played the Lions at 3pm at Emirates Airlines Park on a hot day,” said Stormers loose-forward Marcel Theunissen, who will be playing his landmark 50th game in the clash with the log leaders.
“It would be very tough for them coming from Dublin to play at altitude in a mid-afternoon game, but they are playing us in the evening (kick-off is at 7:15pm) so it will be a completely different scenario for them. They are a good attacking side and we will have to prepare well to stop them. The big challenge is that they are also good at the set piece, and have good starter moves off the lineouts and scrums.”
ONE ADVANTAGE OF PLAYING KO GAMES AWAY
Theunissen is right in pointing to the weather/conditions factor as a reason why Leinster might be more comfortable in this game. Although Cape Town is making a temporary return to summer on Saturday, with a maximum of 28 degrees predicted, the encroaching winter is felt in how quickly the temperature drops after the sun goes down.
Last week’s game against the Ospreys was played in conditions that wouldn’t have been out of place in Swansea, and head coach John Dobson did mention that the cold and the dew mitigated against the Stormers’ celebrated attacking game. Indeed, with the autumn in full swing and winter on the horizon, Stormers defence coach Norman Laker sees one potential positive if the Stormers don’t clinch a home playoff game.
“Summer is coming in the northern hemisphere and that will mean great conditions to play attacking rugby so who knows, maybe it will be better for us to be playing over there where the conditions might suit our game better,” said Laker.
Of course, the Stormers do want to play at home, because apart from the disadvantages that are spawned by having to travel for a playoff game, they also want to reward their fans for their loyal support. But while they haven’t been successful this season as in the previous two in the URC, the Stormers have evolved into a good enough team to win big playoff games away from home.
What they wouldn’t want is a scenario like the one the Sharks faced in the Super Rugby era one year (2012) when they travelled back to South Africa from a quarterfinal in Brisbane to play a semifinal against the Stormers in Cape Town before heading to New Zealand for the final.
If the Vodacom Bulls are to feature in the Stormers’ playoff future, it would be best to play them at Loftus in the quarterfinal and then if they win that game they will be based overseas for the potential remaining two knock-out fixtures. Such a scenario would eventuate if the Bulls finish fourth and the Stormers finish fifth, or the Bulls finish third and the Stormers sixth. Both are entirely possible.
But the Stormers need to get to the playoffs first, with that no longer the near certainty it appeared to be before the 27-21 loss to the Ospreys. With playoff and Champions Cup places on the line, Saturday’s game is a must win, as indeed it has become for Leinster