DHL Stormers coach John Dobson admitted after his team’s narrow derby defeat to the Vodacom Bulls that his team’s chances of attaining a top four finish on the Vodacom United Rugby Championship log may be gone, but he is confident of a top-eight finish.
Making the top half, which signifies both URC playoff qualification and a place in next season’s Investec Champions Cup, is Dobson’s main aim after Clayton Blommetjies missed an attempted match winning conversion.
The conversion would have earned the the Stormers a one-point win over their arch-rivals and propel them to a position where they could challenge the top bracket.
“I think that unless something really unforeseen and freaky happens in other games, our chances of making the top four are gone after this loss,” said Dobson.
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“But I don’t have too many doubts about us making the top eight. If you look at the log, and who we are still to face, with a home run at the end of the season, we are still well placed to make the playoffs.”
Dobson isn’t wrong about that, for although the Stormers are currently two places out of the top eight in 10th, they trail eighth placed Edinburgh by just a solitary point after the same number of games, and seventh placed Munster by three points. Cardiff, six points ahead, are fifth and also catchable, and that should probably be the Stormers’ aim from here on.
A fifth placed finish would mean they play the side that finishes fourth, and there’s a fair chance that could mean a trip to Durban to play the Hollywoodbets Sharks rather than a taxing journey overseas for their first playoff game. The Sharks are currently in fourth position, with the same number of points (29) as Cardiff but with a game on hand on both them and the Stormers.
However, that is all a long time in the future, and Dobson knows that his team won’t be in the playoffs at all if they don’t have some success in the four away games his team plays between now and next month, and in particular the two highveld derbies that are up next for his men.
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In particular, the early kick-off to Saturday’s clash with the Emirates Lions in Johannesburg makes that game a tough hurdle for the Stormers to get over.
“Given how we finished against the Bulls I would feel confident if we were now going into a home game against one of the other teams, but everyone knows that mid or early afternoon kick-offs in Gauteng in summer are particularly tough,” said the Stormers coach.
“We then have to go to Pretoria two weeks after that. Two games on the highveld in a row, it is going to be a big challenge for us. We are also not going to get any of our injured players back before the end of that sequence.”
The Stormers, though, have a three week break after their return game against the Bulls and Dobson is hopeful that there will be returning cavalry by then in the form of Springboks Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse and Manie Libbok, as well as the highly talented and pacy Suleiman Hartzenberg.
If he does get those players back and there are no more injuries in the meantime, then he is confident that his team can win two clutch overseas games against Ulster, who haven’t had the greatest season themselves and have the same number of points currently as the Stormers do, and the admittedly resurgent Scarlets, who are currently placed sixth.
With the Stormers not involved in the EPCR competitions after being knocked out of the Investec Champions Cup in the pool phase, there is then a three week break when they get home before they start a home sequence that features matches against Connacht, Benetton, the Dragons and Cardiff.
Those are all winnable, particularly if the Stormers finally have a full strength backline, which will be quite formidable when or if it does happen, available to them.
“There is still a lot to play for and given our performance against the Bulls when we were missing so many players I don’t see any reason why we shouldn’t win most of our remaining league games,” said Dobson.
Yes, there is a window of opportunity for the Stormers from the two overseas games in March onwards.
But winning the two games that become before that on the highveld, starting with this Saturday’s clash at the Emirates Airlines Park, is going to be a tough ask. Failure to win either game will leave them needing to win six from six - with that being a best case scenario.
Remaining DHL Stormers Vodacom URC fixtures
Emirates Lions (Johannesburg, 15 Feb, 14.30)
Vodacom Bulls (Pretoria, 1 March, 17.00)
Scarlets (Llanelli, 22 March, 21.35)
Ulster (Belfast, 28 March, 21.35)
Connacht (Cape Town, 19 April, 16.00)
Benetton (Cape Town, 26 April, 18.15)
Dragons (Cape Town, 10 May, 18.15)
Cardiff Rugby (Cape town, 16 May, 19.00)
Log situation: 1. Leinster 48 points after 10 games; 2. Glasgow Warriors 37 points after 10 games; 3. Vodacom Bulls 35 points after 9 games; 4. Hollywoodbets Sharks 29 points after 9 games; 5. Cardiff Rugby 29 points after 10 games; 6. Scarlets 27 points after 10 games; 7. Munster 26 points after 10 games; 8. Edinburgh 24 points after 10 games; 9. Ulster 23 points after 10 games; 10. DHL Stormers 23 points after 10 games; 11. Benetton 23 points after 10 games; 12. Ospreys 22 points after 10 games; 13. Emirates Lions 19 points after 8 games; 14. Connacht 19 points after 10 games; 15. Zebre 16 points after 10 games; 16. Dragons 8 points after 10 games.