It is round 13 of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship over this South African long weekend and it is touch and go whether that unlucky number will prove apt for the DHL Stormers and the Emirates Lions.
The two local sides battling for a top eight spot are both in Wales for tough fixtures which they will need to play well to win. While the standard of the Welsh teams is often disparaged, there has been less reason for that this season.
Particularly not when the Welsh teams at home, and not when you are referring to Cardiff, who are currently in the top six ahead of their game against the Lions, or for that matter the much improved Scarlets.
The two teams playing at home, who also have to be the highest flying SA sides, have a less complicated task in avoiding this week being unlucky 13. You wouldn’t normally say that when a team is playing Leinster, which the Vodacom Bulls are, but Leinster have come to South Africa for this repeat of last year’s Loftus semifinal under-strength.
It won’t be easy for the Bulls, as we know that Leinster’s second-string combination is a strong one, plus they have a clutch of quality overseas internationals such as RG Snyman and Jordie Barrett on their books to lift them.
However, they have none of the Ireland internationals who played in last week’s final Guinness Six Nations game against Italy with them and the Bulls, while not quite being a banker for the betting types, must start as strong favourites.
If you are looking for a banker then the Hollywoodbets Sharks are it. They did lose to Zebre in Parma last year but that was on an understrength tour at the beginning of John Plumtree’s tenure as coach.
He didn’t know the players or for that matters his fellow coaches. That’s changed, they are playing in durban, and the Sharks’ form in the URC bears little comparison to that of last year.
The games involving the SA teams are not the only ones of interest over the next two days. Munster visiting Glasgow on Friday pits the second-placed team against the fifth-placed team, and is also a repeat of last year’s hard fought and ill-tempered semifinal in Limerick.
Connacht against Ospreys and Edinburgh going to Benetton are also games that will have a big impact on the race for top eight spots that signify playoff qualification as well as a place in next season’s Investec Champions Cup.
ROUND 13 VODACOM UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
Cardiff Rugby v Emirates Lions (Cardiff, Friday 9:35pm)
This could be a game worth waiting up for at the end of a South African public holiday, with both teams committed to good tempo rugby and both of them well in contention for a top eight finish.
The Lions have done quite well in Wales in recent years and have a good chance but Cardiff do boast a good home record and that gives them a slight edge.
Prediction: Cardiff by less than 7
Glasgow Warriors v Munster (Glasgow, Friday 9:35pm)
Okay, so you might have to flick between the channels on this public holiday Friday evening, for there is quite a bit of edge between these teams. Whether or not that remains the case now that Graham Rowntree is no longer Munster coach might be a moot point for their have been some intense rivalries between the players in recent times too.
Munster started the season poorly but have lifted themselves to fifth, so the Sharks and Bulls, intent on keeping their top four positions, won’t really know what to think - a Glasgow loss will make a top two finish more likely for both of them, but a Munster loss will ease the pressure from the other direction.
Munster owe Glasgow one after being knocked out by them in a home semifinal last year and much will depend on how many national players Franco Smith fields in this game.
Prediction: Glasgow to edge a thriller
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Zebre (Durban, Saturday 2:45pm)
Zebre shocked the Sharks in Parma last year but Hollywoodbets Kings Park, with the humidity and a mid afternoon kick-off in what has been quite a hot week in KZN is far removed from what Zebre have been used to as they emerge from the northern winter.
They are a better team than they were, but the Sharks are slowly heading back towards full strength and have a good bench, with Andre Esterhuizen making a return to the playing field as a replacement. Zebre will be physical but at home you have to back the Sharks.
Prediction: Sharks by at least 15
Benetton v Edinburgh (Treviso, Saturday 5pm)
This is a season that just keeps giving in terms of delivering games that matter. Benetton spent a bit of time in the top eight but are now below the Stormers, in 13th, and desperately need to beat the seventh-placed team if they are to stand any chance of repeating last year’s top eight finish. They’re at home and they have motivation but Edinburgh have also put some good performances together recently, as their log position suggests.
Prediction: Benetton to win by 7
Vodacom Bulls v Leinster (Pretoria, Saturday 5pm)
I am fully in accord with my supersport.com colleague Brenden Nel, who wrote this week that something needs to be done to the fixture list to ensure there’s a better chance of Leinster coming to South Africa at full strength.
That is something that has yet to happen outside of last year’s semifinal at Saturday’s venue, and the reason it doesn’t is because their SA tours are always in close proximity to the next big European fixture or just after the Six Nations. This time both apply.
That does not mean Leinster will be easy to beat. They went in understrength against the Stormers and won, but then that was a home game for them and they weren’t quite as denuded of their international stars as they are for this one. The smart money should be on a first defeat of the season for Leinster.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 10
Scarlets v DHL Stormers (Llanelli, Saturday 5pm)
What is it with having so many good games all being played at the same time? There are three in the same time slot, and all are worth watching. This one could well be the best of the lot if the previous meeting at Parc Y Scarlets between these teams is anything to go on.
That was in the first season of the URC, the Stormers were playing for both a top-four finish and the SA Shield, and they got it right with Ruhan Nel scoring a try off the last move of the game.
In a game being extra hyped because the Stormers will be welcoming back Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse and Suleiman Hartzenberg, don’t bet against a similar result achieved in similar fashion.
Prediction: DHL Stormers to edge it.
Dragons v Ulster (Newport, Saturday 7:15pm)
Ulster need to start climbing the log and if you need to do that who better to be playing against than the bottom placed team? The Dragons can be difficult at home but, as their record suggests, they usually still end up on the wrong side of the scoreline. That should be the case again.
Prediction: Ulster by 12
Ospreys v Connacht (Swansea, Saturday 7:15pm)
This is eighth against 11th with hardly anything separating them on the points table so it is a good way to end the weekend of URC action.
Connacht have been building up a good head of steam in recent games and they are under the pressure of knowing they still have to come to South Africa so although this is an away game, a positive result is crucial for them. Much might depend on how many Wales internationals are called up by the home team.
Prediction: Ospreys to win by 7