Nigeria sit six points behind South Africa, but if there is to be a sanction for Bafana Bafana in the Tebeho Mokoena affair, then the difference is only three points. Catch the action live on SuperSport.
That makes Tuesday’s World Cup qualifier in Bloemfontein a do-or-die affair for both countries.
An away win for Nigeria would propel them right back into contention after a generally ineffective qualifying campaign by their high standards, while home success would put South Africa through to the World Cup finals officially, although with an asterisk behind it as world football awaits clarity from Fifa over whether they will be docked points for fielding a defaulter in Mokoena back in March when they beat Lesotho in Polokwane.
The fact that Fifa have not made a decision six months after the incident offers the possibility that no sanction might be affected, meaning that if Hugo Broos’ team win on Tuesday, then South Africa will qualify for the World Cup in North America next year.
It would be a first World Cup appearance since 2010 for Bafana and the first time they have successfully come through the qualifiers in more than two decades. South Africa previously qualified for the 1998 and 2002 finals and, as host, had an automatic berth in the 2010 field.
The subsequent World Cup qualifying campaigns have proven disappointing, with defeat in Ethiopia ending hopes of a place in Brazil 2014 and then missing out on the subsequent tournaments in Russia and Qatar.
The last campaign for the 2022 finals saw South Africa make an ill-advised and unsuccessful complaint to Fifa over the refereeing in their decisive qualifier in Ghana.
SUPER EAGLES COLLECTING STALEMATES
Nigeria have been to six previous World Cups, none more exciting than their debut appearance in the United States in 1994 but have also had some poor qualifying campaigns.
They surprisingly lost out to Angola for a berth in Germany in 2006, and last time out, for the 2022 finals in Qatar, they were palpably the better team against Ghana in a two-legged playoff, but a horror goalkeeping error cost them.
This campaign has also not been as smooth as Nigeria would have hoped for. Saturday’s laboured 1-0 home victory over Rwanda was only their second victory in seven group C fixtures. They have dropped home points against Lesotho, Zimbabwe, and a 1-1 draw against Bafana in Uyo last June.
In Nigeria’s last 10 World Cup qualifiers, there have been two wins and seven draws. But also only a single defeat, away to Benin in June last year, which might yet prove to be the most decisive result of the group.
South Africa started their group C campaign poorly with a defeat in Rwanda, but the draw in Uyo was pivotal to restoring their chances, and they have since won four subsequent games on the trot, although the 2-0 success over the Basotho in Polokwane in March remains a question mark.