The Vodacom Bulls have been flying and the DHL Stormers have recovered well from their disastrous tour but from this weekend starts a phase of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship where all the South African teams will need to fire on all cylinders.
This weekend sees the competition go into round 12, so there are just six games to go after this in the league phase, which means less room for error. The Bulls aside, the South African challenge has been marked by inconsistency, and that needs to stop if three local sides are to make it into the playoffs.
With the Emirates Lions on the cusp of the top eight, which would signify a play-off place and also, probably more importantly, qualification for next season’s Investec Champions Cup, it is only the Hollywoodbet Sharks who do not have something concrete to play for in terms of being in with a shout at URC silverware.
However they do need to get some momentum before they go into the EPCR Challenge Cup knockouts, and it is also true that the Sharks cannot continue to inhabit last position on the log, and continue with their losing habit, if they are to avert a complete crisis.
FULL STRENGTH MEANS NO EXCUSES
Their coach John Plumtree has made a good point when he’s lamented the fact he has yet to field his full strength pack in any competition, but he will have that on Saturday when his team hosts Ulster in a game that both the Stormers and the Bulls will be hoping the Durban team wins. Eben Etzebeth said it earlier this week - the time for excuses is over. Ulster are difficult opponents, make no mistake, but a Bok laden Sharks team should be expected to get the win that will help their countrymen in their quest for top four positions.
Not that the Bulls should be interested in top four, for them it should be a top two, or even a top position finish that should be their aim. They will be looking for five points from their game against the Dragons in Newport to keep pressure on Leinster and keep the Glasgow Warriors at bay in the quest for a top two spot. Given their recent form, they should get them.
IT’S A NON-NEGOTIABLE FOR STORMERS
For the Stormers wins, preferably with bonus points, have become a non-negotiable for their next two games against Edinburgh on Saturday and then Ulster a week later. Fortunately both are at DHL Stadium, where the Stormers rarely lose, but the point is they need momentum. Their recent friendly win over a strong Northampton Saints team away showed they have recovered well from their blip against the Bulls three weeks ago and they should get the win over Edinburgh that will put them into the top four or just outside it.
Then comes Ulster, and a win there could secure a top four spot by the time the Investec Champions Cup returns as a focus in the first weekend of April.
LIONS HAVE TOUGHEST TASK
The Lions are the one local side that we might be able to accept a loss from this weekend. Connacht at The Sportsground in Galway are formidable opponents. Still, the Lions do tend to lift their game away from home, and it is not impossible that they could get the result that would not only help their quest for a top eight finish but also help the two South African sides higher up on the log. Connacht are currently three log points ahead of the ninth placed Stormers. Ninth could become fourth, though more likely fifth, if the other results, such as Scarlets upsetting Benetton, go their way.
This weekend’s Vodacom United Rugby Championship fixtures
Glasgow Warriors v Cardiff Rugby (Friday, 21.35)
Franco Smith’s Warriors are third, four points behind leaders Leinster going into round 12, and will welcome back four international players to their starting team, plus a further four on the bench. Richie Gray (bicep) and Huw Jones (hand) are notable absentees. Cardiff also have four Wales international players back in their starting team for a trip to a venue where only one visiting team has won this season, that being Northampton Saints in the Investec Champions Cup. The last time Glasgow, who will be captained by Kyle Steyn in this one, lost to a Welsh region it was to Ospreys away way back in 2022.
Prediction: Warriors to win by 12
Ospreys v Munster (Friday, 21.35)
Welsh legend George North looks to have played his last game for Ospreys after rupturing his Achilles in his his final international match last weekend. He moves to the French club Provence next season. Owen Watkin is the only Wales international to return to action for the Ospreys in this game against the champions, although of course Justin Tupiric, who doesn’t play international rugby anymore, leads the side from openside flank. Munster have made three changes to the side that beat Zebre last time out, with Joey Carbery returning to action at flyhalf, and John Hadnett and Rory Scannell are also back. This could be a tough game for the champions, who have displayed up and down form, but they should just edge it.
Prediction: Munster by less than 7.
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Ulster (Saturday, 15.00)
Ulster’s lack of representation in the Ireland team that retained their Six Nations title has been a talking point, but in this game it could be useful to the visitors as it means they go into the game with some continuity. It will be the first game where they will have new interim coach Richie Murphy, who takes over from Dan McFarland, in place, and they are talking about new beginnings. The Sharks though will have other ideas and look set to field arguably their strongest team of the season as all the Boks who missed the Emirates Lions game, plus newcomer Vincent Koch, were understood to be in the selection mix. This could well be the turnaround moment for the Sharks.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 8
Scarlets v Benetton (Saturday, 17.00)
Scarlets are listing at 14th on the log after a poor season and desperately need to hit the winning trail against a Benetton team that is expected to have a couple of Italy internationals back. At full strength, Benetton are close to being the Italy team, and we saw what they did to Wales last week. So although they are away from home, Benetton must start as marginal favourites to start their climb from their current eighth position back into the top four that they have inhabited for most of the season.
Prediction: Benetton to win by 8
DHL Stormers v Edinburgh (Saturday, 17.05)
The Stormers team has yet to be announced but John Dobson should have a full squad to choose on, which leaves him with some interesting selection dilemmas. He has also hinted that he wants to spread his depth a bit ahead of the arrival of the business end of the season, and this would be the best time to do it. Edinburgh coach Sean Everitt made it clear during the week he wasn’t going to draw on his Scotland internationals for this one. So the Stormers should be favoured for a comfortable win that will take them either into the top four or on the cusp of it from their current ninth position.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 15 or more.
Connacht v Emirates Lions (Saturday, 19.15)
No South African regional or franchise team has ever won at The Sportsground in Galway but with the Lions on the edge of entry into the top eight this would be a good time to change that. The Lions were very impressive in comfortably beating the Sharks a few weeks ago and they’ve actually been fairly good on the road, particularly overseas, in the last two seasons. Connacht though will have plenty of motivation as even though they are currently seventh they are just one point off the top four. They should also have a few Ireland internationals back. The smart money will be on them but don’t write off the determined Lions.
Prediction: Connacht to win by 8.
Dragons v Vodacom Bulls (Saturday, 21.35)
The Bulls tripped up in Wales last season with a shock win to the Scarlets, which was as unlikely a result at the time as a Dragons win would be in this game. But you do get the sense that the Bulls have grown a lot since last year and they also have the confidence that they would have gained from their drought breaking win against the Stormers. The Bulls are currently second on the log and they will be determined to make sure that next week’s clash with Leinster in Dublin is a proper top of the log clash. It would be surprising if it isn’t as the Bulls should win with some comfort.
Prediction: Bulls by 12
Zebre v Leinster (Saturday, 21.35)
Zebre have given a few teams a fright in Parma, and beat the Sharks there earlier in their campaign, but expecting them to win against the log leaders would be stretching it a bit. Leinster are unlikely to have all their Six Nations winners back but they may have a few, not that it matters that much with them - the Dublin based Irish provincial team boasts enviable depth.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 20