University of Pretoria host Richards Bay in a crunch 2023-24 PSL Promotion/Relegation Playoff fixture on Saturday, where it is do-or-die for AmaTuks in their hopes for promotion.
All three clubs are still in the hunt for a place in the DStv Premiership next campaign, but opportunities are running out for some.
We run through the permutations with two games remaining in the playoffs.
BAROKA FC
Played / Points / Goal-Difference: 3 / 2 / -1
The equation is fairly simple for Baroka, they need to hope AmaTuks’ game with Richards Bay on Saturday ends in a draw to have any chance of promotion. If either club win, they are eliminated after taking only two points from a possible nine so far.
The Limpopo club need a stalemate and they must defeat Richards Bay in their final clash on Wednesday. How much they would need to win that game by depends on goals scored by the teams. At the moment, AmaTuks have two goals, and Richards Bay and Baroka one each.
If AmaTuks-Richards Bay ends 0-0, and Baroka beat Richards Bay 1-0, then all three teams will be on five points, all with a +0 goal difference, and AmaTuks and Baroka will have two goals scored.
If the next tiebreaker is Fair Play, at the moment, all three clubs have five yellow cards and no reds.
If AmaTuks-Richards Bay ends in a draw and Baroka win by two goals next week, they will be promoted.
UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA
Played / Points / Goal-Difference: 3 / 4 / +0
AmaTuks are looking for a return to the top flight for the first time since 2015 and victory over Richards Bay at home on Saturday would be a big step in the right direction, though it would not complete the job.
It would eliminate Baroka FC from the equation, but then leave the Limpopo club to go to Richards Bay on Wednesday with nothing to play for.
A 1-0 win for AmaTuks over Richards Bay would leave them three points ahead with a +1 advantage in terms of goal difference and three goals scored. All their games would be completed.
That would leave Richards Bay needing to beat Baroka by more than a one-goal margin, otherwise AmaTuks would finish top on goals scored (three versus two).
If Richards Bay win 2-1, then the teams would have an identical record. However, any victory by more than a two-goal margin would see the DStv Premiership club retain their status.
RICHARDS BAY
Played / Points / Goal-Difference: 2 / 4 / +1
It could not be a simpler equation for Richards Bay on Saturday, win and they will have retained their top-flight status.
It would leave them three points ahead of the University of Pretoria (who will have completed their four matches) and five points in front of Baroka FC, who they will play in a final fixture next Wednesday, rendering that game a dead-rubber.
A draw and all the equations listed above come into play, while defeat will leave them needing to get a decent win at home next week.
They have yet to concede a goal in their two games in the playoffs, but have only scored once themselves. They took only nine points from a possible 45 on the road in the regular season, but a healthier 21 points at home.
That form has continued in the Play-Offs with a 1-0 home win over AmaTuks and a 0-0 away draw at Baroka.