There is a lot said about the study of history and generally it has relevance but Saturday’s opening Castle Lager Rugby Championship clash between the Springboks and Wallabies in Brisbane could be an exception.
It is true that the Boks have a poor record in Brisbane, and haven’t won there since a comprehensive drought-breaking win in Heyneke Meyer’s era as coach in 2013. They’ve visited the city four times since then and lost every time, the most recent of those defeats being a 30-17 reverse in a game where they were outplayed in 2021.
Even in one of the best-ever post-isolation years for the Boks, 2009, when John Smit’s team under the coaching of Peter de Villiers won a series against the British and Irish Lions and then won the Tri-Nations, Brisbane was an exception to the trend of success. The Boks won five of their six games in that Tri-Nations, but their loss was to Australia in Brisbane, where the South Africans were shocked by being outplayed at their own game and lost 21-6.
However, there’s been a lot of water that has flowed under the bridge since that game 15 years ago for both nations, and even more recently there has been change. In 2009, the Wallabies were still a top world rugby power, and even three years ago when the Boks last visited Queensland, the hosts were in a different place to where they are now.
As indeed were the Boks. For the visitors, it was a game played during a period where they’d been forced to isolate in almost inhuman fashion over a long tract of time because of Covid. And the Wallabies weren’t yet facing the prospect of dropping to No 9 on the World Rugby Rankings, which is where they are now.
CHASM IN RANKINGS TELLS A STORY
That’s it in a nutshell and why history may just be irrelevant this time - the Australians did win their series against Wales but in their first games under Joe Schmidt but that isn’t much to boast about these days. They are ninth, the Boks are No 1, and no one would quibble that the chasm between the sides on the ranking list is not representative of performance on the field.
The Boks have won another World Cup since they were last in Brisbane, and that should do heaps for both their confidence and BMT. The two successive World Cups they have won were also played overseas, and the last one included a win over hosts France in a massive quarterfinal, so there really is no excuse for there to be any psychological implication when the phrase “bogey venue” is uttered.
Of course, there are unknowns. Schmidt is a new coach for Australia and he is also highly regarded as a strategist. The Wallabies owe their slide to No 9 to what happened under their previous coach Eddie Jones, and to some extent the one before that, Dave Rennie, and not to Schmidt, who has yet to be beaten as Wallaby's mentor.
South Africa’s withdrawal from Super Rugby also means that there isn’t the familiarity there once was between the players. There is always now a question when playing Antipodean opposition after a break about the adjustment to the southern hemisphere tempo.
IRELAND SERIES WAS GOOD PREPARATION
However, on that last point, the Boks have just played an intense series against the world’s No 2 team, Ireland, who are not lacking in terms of tempo and attacking ability. They also have a bit of a Schmidt stamp to their game as the Kiwi was their coach up until the 2019 World Cup.
There are further unknowns around the law variations that are being trialled by Sanzaar, such as the 30-second rush to set a scrum. But the Boks have said that it isn’t a concern, that they are well prepared for it, and given the meticulous attention to detail of the coaching staff in the Rassie Erasmus era, there’s no reason to disbelieve them.
SACHA’S SELECTION COULD PROVE NIGHTMARE FOR HOSTS
When it comes to the shock selection of 22-year-old Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, there is also a strong riposte - given that Handre Pollard is on the bench, the selection entails no more risk than a trapeze artist has to face when he or she performs above a strong safety net.
And let’s be clear too that Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s selection could present something that the Wallabies have seldom encountered from the Boks, at least away from the highveld. It is hard to imagine that Erasmus would have chosen Feinberg-Mngomezulu if the intent was not to aggressively continue with the game adjustments that have been introduced by the arrival of Tony Brown as attack coach.
As they have periodically shown on the fast highveld surfaces over the years, the Boks can be a handful when they play an all-inclusive game, and they are certainly in a better place and more confident than they were when they last lost to the Wallabies in Adelaide in 2021.
Make no mistake, the Wallabies will be up for this game, they know it is their first really big test under Schmidt’s coaching. But the Boks have a blend of power and X-factor now that should prove too much for the hosts to cope with. It might not be a big win, not quite on the scale of the 38-12 win in Brisbane in 2013, but if the Boks play anywhere close to their potential, they should get their Rugby Championship campaign off to a solid winning start.
Given the different journeys the teams have undertaken in recent years, and the Boks’ current standing as successive global champions, a good win should be an expectation rather than a hope.
TEAMS
AUSTRALIA: Tom Wright; Andrew Kellaway, Len Ikitau, Hunter Paisami, Filipo Daugunu; Noah Lolesio, Jake Gordon; Harry Wilson, Carlo Tizzano, Rob Valetini, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Nick Frost, Allan Alaalatoa (captain), Matt Faessler, Isaac Kailea. Replacements: Josh Nasser, James Slipper, Zane Nonggorr, Jeremy Williams, Luke Reimer, Tate McDermott, Tom Lynagh, Dylan Pietsch.
SOUTH AFRICA: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Cobus Reinach, Elrigh Louw, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), RG Snyman, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nche. Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Gerhard Steenekamp, Vincent Koch, Ben-Jason Dixon, Marco van Staden, Kwagga Smith, Grant Williams, Handre Pollard.
Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Kick-off: 06.45 Saturday
Prediction: Boks to win by around 10 points