Like death and taxes, rugby has a few simple rules. And one of the most important ones is that goalkicks tend to win matches.
Or rather, put it this way - more games have been lost without a reliable goalkicker than by scoring tries.
Which is why the Springboks’ World Cup selection is a concern, and the loss of Handre Pollard comes as such a massive body blow to the team ahead of the title defence in France next month.
To be fair, the Boks have to do the best with the tools they have, and while they have circumvented test rugby over the past year without Pollard pretty well, there has always been the comfort that he should return before the World Cup.
And while that may be the case still, the decision to take a fully fit squad to the World Cup means that - other than Manie Libbok - the Boks are pretty thin in the goalkicking stakes.
Considering the team’s schedule means that it is knockout rugby from the first match against Scotland on September 10, the importance of kicking in the team cannot be underestimated, but it has become clear that the Boks are not 100 per cent certain that Pollard will make it or they would have taken him with rather than exclude him from selection.
OPTIMISM FOR LATER ROLE FOR POLLARD
The utterings that he can return “if there is an injury” is hopeful optimism, and while World Cups have seen injuries often during the tournament, there is no guarantee that a fit-again Pollard would make it there.
Especially as the word from the camp is that he has not trained with the squad, kicked a ball in anger or done any of what they call “the test match week load” - what is expected in terms of fitness for any player in the squad ahead of a test - since he injured his calf in a club game for Leicester Tigers.
It has also become clear that the Boks have waited and waited for Pollard and eventually decided to back the squad they have over an injury that has the potential to heal, but that there isn’t any certainty on.
All of this leaves them in a quandary - they have back-up players, but not one kicks at more than an 80 per cent success rate - generally accepted as the test match standard - and with a number of games at the World Cup set to be as close as it could possibly be, it may be that the Boks need to find another way of playing to win games they normally would have won with the boot.
BUENOS AIRES FUELLED LIBBOK’S CLAIM
It may also be that Manie Libbok’s performance in Buenos Aires - where he missed four kicks only to recover and slot penalties in the second half that saw the Boks pull away to a comfortable victory may have influenced that as well.
There is also an inkling that the Boks may have known that Pollard was unlikely to make it, hence their decision against New Zealand to employ both Faf de Klerk and Cheslin Kolbe to take penalty kicks in the Auckland games. If they did keeping it mum was probably a good idea as it would have placed a lot of pressure on Manie Libbok in the lead-up to the World Cup announcement.
The bottom line seems to be that the Boks have a lot of options, but none of them is a dead certainty.
Libbok will continue to be the No 1 flyhalf and earn more time in the saddle, while Damian Willemse is the utility to step in if needed.
FAF THE THIRD FLYHALF OPTION
Further than that, the decision to take four scrumhalves has seen Faf de Klerk become the third option 10 - which has opened up the extra spot.
It is a gamble, as De Klerk has a good kicking game, but the cauldron of a World Cup match against World No 1 Ireland or say New Zealand or France may be a helluva ask for a player in a makeshift position.
Still, it is a gamble the Boks have decided to take, while in general play they still have Willie le Roux, who generally slots in on attack at 10 and has played the entire Japanese season at 10 as well.
Cheslin Kolbe has played 10 for both Toulon and Toulouse, but his best qualities are more in the outfield in space while Andre Esterhuizen was Harlequins’ back up 10 in an emergency.
All these are options, but none of them necessarily a winning hand.
The Boks seem hopeful that Pollard will return in the injury route, but that is a gamble that may not pay off. In the meantime, The only certainty, it seems, is that Elton Jantjies is not in their plans anywhere at the moment, having missed out on a trip to Argentina and again not even mentioned when Pollard fell out of favour.
While Jantjies may not be everyone’s favourite, with more than 50 tests he would have been a good alternative, and may well - depending on injuries - resurface in a vital World Cup campaign.
WILLIE ANOTHER OPTION
Nienaber went to lengths to explain the decision when asked about it after the announcement.
“On the nines, we’ve spoken a lot about versatility in terms of the squad and you would probably ask who is the back-up 10 now - and that will be Faf (de Klerk). We also have Willie who has played most of his rugby in Japan for his club at 10,” Nienaber said.
“If anything happens, Faf will probably move into the 10 position - we also have Cheslin who played 10 for Toulon. So we’ve got a couple of third choice options there and that is why we went with 4 scrumhalves.
“If you look at the split - we went with 19 forwards and 14 backs and if you look at the 14 backs, to have two full backlines that can train against each other is gold, and a guy like Grant Williams can always help us out at wing. That’s the reason why we went with 4 scrumhalves.”
BOKS CALM ON GOAL-KICKING
But he defended goal-kicking as something the team was working hard on, and played down the importance of the pressure-busting part of the game.
“The goalkicking - i don’t think there is ever a guy who goes out to kick poorly. Maybe to reference the end of year tour when we played Ireland, we missed a couple of points off the tee, but when we went to France we used three kickers and kicked seven out of seven.
“They train as hard as they can and they are kicking well in training. I must say in Argentina, i thought it was massive for Manie - we did discuss with him if he wants to give the kicking duties over at halftime to Damian. He said no, he’s fine and I thought he came back strong, that just shows his mental strength and attitude.”
As the smoke settles, Libbok has emerged as the most important figure in the Bok set-up now and his mental fortitude in Buenos Aires may be a massive plus for him.
But when it comes to goalkicking, you can’t help but understand if Bok fans are more than a little nervous when it comes to the World Cup right now.