History favours Egyptian club Zamalek when they seek to overcome a 1-0 deficit against Algerian visitors USM Alger on Saturday in the CAF Confederation Cup final second leg.
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In 22 previous editions of the African equivalent of the UEFA Europa League, three teams have built solitary-goal leads at home in the first leg of title deciders.
But Dolphins of Nigeria (2005), Club Africain of Tunisia (2011) and Renaissance Berkane of Morocco (2019) all surrendered their slim advantage after the return match.
Dolphins fell 3-0 at FAR Rabat of Morocco and Club Africain and Berkane lost penalty shootouts against MAS Fes of Morocco and Zamalek respectively following 1-0 losses.
Twice Confederation Cup winners, Zamalek are trailing ahead of the second leg in Cairo after a dramatic climax to the first encounter in Algeria last weekend.
Brazilian substitute Juan Bezerra netted in the first minute of added time, and celebrated what he and his teammates believed was the match winner.
But VAR officials intervened, informing the Mauritanian referee that USM substitute Rayane Mahrouz had been fouled in the Zamalek box prior to the goal.
The Zamalek goal was cancelled and a penalty awarded to USM, which Ahmed Khaldi slammed past Mahdi Soliman to give the hosts a 98th-minute lead.
"Winning is the most important thing in a final, no matter the performance. We need to improve some technical issues," Senegal-born USM coach Lamine N'Diaye told reporters.
"We should not underestimate what we achieved – Zamalek rank among the most experienced clubs in Africa. They have won 13 CAF titles, we (USM) have won two."
N'Diaye can boast of two African successes, guiding TP Mazembe from the Democratic Republic of Congo to the 2010 CAF Champions League and 2011 CAF Super Cup titles.
'EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTING'
He joined 2023 Confederation Cup winners USM three months ago on a contract until the end of this season and has already guided the club to victory in the the Algerian Cup final.
In the opposite dugout will be Moatamed Gamal, an Egyptian who hopes to lead Zamalek to the Confederation Cup and Egyptian Premier League titles by 20 May.
Zamalek host Ceramica Cleopatra next Wednesday and maximum points will ensure they become Egyptian champions for the first time in four seasons.
"We had hoped to come away from Algeria with at least a draw, so having a goal disallowed and then conceding was extremely disappointing," said Gamal.
"However, it is only halftime in the final and we will have home advantage in the second half. I see no reason why we cannot overcome the deficit.
"Zamalek have many players used to competing in Africa and I believe their experience will play a key role in the second leg."
At home, the Cairo White Knights won four matches and drew two en route to the final, scoring six goals and conceding two.
Bezerra and Tunisian Seifeddine Jaziri have claimed four goals each in 13 matches and Palestine international Oday Dabbagh three.
USM have had mixed results on the road, winning twice, drawing twice and losing twice, scoring five goals and conceding five.
Ahmed Khaldi has bagged four goals, three of them from penalties. But the Algerian club are still waiting for a first goal from Ivorian Dramane Kamagate.
He was signed after netting six times for San Pedro, who lost twice to USM in the group phase and were eliminated.
Away goals count double in the event of an aggregate draw in CAF competitions, and that rule enabled USM to win their quarterfinal and semifinal ties.