Glasgow Warriors coach Franco Smith summed it up perfectly when last week he said his team retaining top position on the Vodacom URC log was through “the grace of God”. On the day his Glasgow team got smashed by the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions, the DHL Stormers failed to take advantage.
The bookies must have known something about both the Lions and the Glasgow selections last week. They made the Lions favourites to win, which they did with another commanding Ellis Park display against a team that was short of a few key players through both injury and the need to give other players a rest.
The bench was loaded, and the team is expected to be loaded against the Stormers this week, which is the game on the tour Glasgow appear to have targeted.
Smith admitted he had little choice when he pointed to the inferior depth the Scottish teams have available to them in comparison to the South African teams.
His men had just gone through a tough sequence of matches that started with a crucial URC match against Benetton straight after the Six Nations and included two EPCR knock-out games where there was high pressure due to Glasgow’s expectations of what would have been historic success in Europe.
Smith might well have gone with the same team in Johannesburg even had his team not lost in agonising fashion to Toulon in their Investec Champions Cup quarterfinal. There is just so much the body can take when it comes to physical grind and he clearly felt his team was getting toward the tipping point.
STORMERS PLAYING FATHER CHRISTMAS BLEW MASSIVE OPPORTUNITY
So he was understandably thankful that on the day his team got outplayed and lost 54-12 his nearest challengers to the top spot on the log, the Stormers, took on the role of Father Christmas by playing into a well coached and organised Connacht team’s hands in Cape Town.
The Stormers knew they were up against a top team but were expected to win. It was never going to be a gimme, but it was the game of the two remaining home league games that end with Saturday’s clash with Glasgow that was considered the easier to win.
And the stats back that up. Connacht had never beaten the Stormers in a trip to the Cape before, having lost on previous trips to both Cape Town and Stellenbosch. In fact, a narrow win in Galway in the first season of the URC was the only Connacht success against the Stormers anywhere until this past weekend.
Glasgow on the other hand hold a very different status for the Stormers. The Stormers did win comfortably against Glasgow at the DHL Stadium in the first meeting of the two teams in April 2022. But that was Glasgow under a different coach. Indeed, it was after that defeat that the Glasgow administration decided to take a new path under a different coach, with the Stormers’ busy style impressing them.
They were looking for a similar template to the one employed at the Stormers by John Dobson in the Cape team’s first triumphant season in the URC when they appointed Smith. Since then, Glasgow have not lost to the Stormers, and that includes two quarterfinals at the Scotstoun, where Glasgow have hurt the Stormers by winning comfortably.
GLASGOW ARE DOBSON’S BOGEY TEAM
They haven’t played in Cape Town since 2022 but Glasgow did win comfortably in Cape Town in a game played in early afternoon heat in Stellenbosch in October 2024. The Stormers have never beaten Glasgow under Smith, and are very much the Stormers’ bogey team, something acknowledged by Dobson in looking ahead to the game.
Thanks to the Stormers’ generosity against Connacht, where twice they let slip 10 point leads, it is the Stormers playing for top spot, instead of the other way around, as it would have been had the Stormers beaten Connacht.
However, thanks to the results last weekend, there is no guarantee of top spot for the winner in Cape Town, as Leinster’s tight win away against Ulster last weekend has put them in position to complete the recovery from a disastrous start to the season to go back into the pole position on the log they held for most of last season on the way to their inaugural URC title.
If the Stormers win without a bonus point and deny Glasgow a losing bonus point, Leinster can pass both of Saturday’s Cape Town protagonists and move into the lead - albeit a slender one.
There’s certainly a lot to play for when it comes to the battle for top spot in the remaining weeks, with the aforementioned Ulster, who play both the Stormers and Glasgow before the end of the season, perhaps being the key as potential king makers.
Both of those are home games for Ulster, and there is a history between Ulster and the Stormers and Ulster and Glasgow.
Making it even more interesting in a tight finish to the URC season is the fact that both the Stormers and Glasgow will be playing Cardiff, who are still in contention, in their other game.
If Cardiff continue what they did with their come from behind win over Scarlets last week, they will head into those games with both confidence and the mentality of a team that has plenty to play for. They are seventh currently, but just nine points separate them at this point from the second placed Stormers and Leinster.
LIONS UP AGAINST A TEAM WITH THEIR MOMENTUM
The Lions have played themselves into the equation as contenders for a top place finish after their winning home run, but they are up against a team that has similar momentum to them in the form of Connacht. If the Lions follow up a good win over the top placed team by losing the following week to one placed further down the ladder it would not be the first time.
There is a massive carrot for the Lions though, who are in an unprecedented position for them in the competition - if they win against Connacht and the Stormers and Leinster both lose, they will go second on the log.
Although they are currently only eighth, the other SA team in contention, the Vodacom Bulls, are also contenders for a top four finish, perhaps even top two, given their relatively easy run to the end of the league season that after Saturday night’s game against Scarlets in Llanelli features two home fixtures against the Italian teams.
SHARKS’ CHANCES AREN’T REALLY REALISTIC
The Hollywoodbets Sharks can keep their slender hopes alive by getting full points against Edinburgh at The Hive Stadium, and they also have an easy finish with two home games against Italian teams, but their chances aren’t realistic as they are relying on too much going wrong for the other teams vying for a top eight finish.
The magical figure of 49 log points is what would be needed by those teams to put themselves beyond the reach of the Durban team.
A big game outside of the ones featuring South African teams in what some are touting as a moving weekend for the competition when it comes to the multiple battles that are being enacted is the one in Limerick on Saturday between Munster and Ulster.
It is fifth (Ulster) against sixth (Munster) and there is only one point separating and both are within reach of second should they win with a bonus point and the other results conspire in their favour.
Weekend Vodacom URC fixtures (round 16)
Cardiff Rugby v Ospreys (Cardiff, Friday 8pm)
Edinburgh v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Edinburgh, Friday 8:45pm)
Zebre v Dragons (Parma, Friday 8:45pm)
DHL Stormers v Glasgow Warriors (Cape Town, Saturday 1:45pm)
Fidelity SecureDrive Lions v Connacht (Johannesburg, Saturday 4pm)
Munster v Ulster (Limerick, Saturday 6:30pm
Scarlets v Vodacom Bulls (Llanelli, Saturday 8:45pm)
Log position after 15 games: 1. Glasgow 55 points, 2. Stormers 51, 3. Leinster 51,4. Lions 48, 5. Ulster 47, 6. Munster 46, 7. Cardiff Rugby 46, 8. Vodacom Bulls 45, 9. Connacht 44, 10. Ospreys 34, 11. Sharks 34, 12. Edinburgh 28, 13. Benetton 28, 14. Scarlets 23, 15. Dragons 21, 16. Zebre 14