HAUNTED BY GHOSTS OF SEASONS PAST
When the good times roll for the Springboks, as they do now, the aberration that is defeat can sometimes linger longer than it might otherwise have done in times gone by when a win wasn’t seen as just another day at the office for the world champions.
A good head doctor might have had a few interesting things to say had he or she been present to overhear the conversations among the South African journalists queuing for their food in the area assigned for that at Ellis Park during halftime. The Boks were up 17-14, but you could have sworn they were behind when hearing references to “signs of an ageing team” and the like.
And make no mistake, there were signs of flatness during the second quarter, when England recovered from being 17-0 down after just 12 minutes. The early missed lineouts that contributed to the Boks not getting their hands on the ball much in the last 28 minutes of the first half were among the reasons for concern, as was the error rate that contributed to England having all the scrum put-ins before halftime.
But the view among us was clearly a marked contrast from the England media people, who had been blown by the strong Bok start. Afterwards, in conversation and in their podcasts and stories, the line was that it was never in doubt. That the Boks won every single battle. That they controlled the game throughout, and the signs of a renaissance spotted by their SA counterparts were nothing more than a mirage.
The discrepancy in view, and I am pretty sure we hacks weren’t alone in it, was no doubt inspired by ghosts of seasons past. Or, more particularly, the ghosts that still linger from what we saw happen on our last visit, and the Springboks’ last visit, to Ellis Park last August.
When the Boks temporarily lost their way it was way too reminiscent of what happened against the Wallabies, and precisely because of the similarity in the dominance of the Boks in those early minutes. Last year it was 22-3 to the Boks after 20 minutes, this time 17-0 after just 12. Had last year’s collapse not happened the apparent England fightback would have sent less shivers of apprehension through South African spines.
But it did happen, and obviously memories are good when it comes to what falls outside of the norm. A Bok defeat is outside of the norm, last year’s Ellis Park loss was one of just two experienced by the Boks in the whole season.
So the ghost was lingering but before duly being exorcised in that second half, when the Boks showed something that we didn’t know at halftime - that they’d learned from past lessons.
RASSIE IS GETTING MORE TRUST
One of the most interesting things about being at the team announcement press conference at the Springboks’ team hotel on Monday - yes, they’re getting earlier and earlier - was noticing how much the vibe has changed when Rassie comes up with selections that may seem left field.
There were 10 changes made to a team that beat England by 24 points last week, yet there weren’t the questions that may have been considered inevitable in the past about changes to a winning formula, to why Jasper Wiese was missing out after such a strong performance, ditto why the best player against England, Damian Willemse, was switched from fullback to centre (there was a question but the subject wasn’t dwelt on).
And righty not. Rassie did state often enough in the buildup to the England game, when he was questioned on why he wasn’t giving more young players a go, that it was important to beat England if he wanted to experiment.
In fact, he made it explicit that a Bok victory over England was geared towards making it possible to experiment.
And neither did he just state that as his objective in the weeks building towards the England game - he said it at his first information briefing of the year at the SA Rugby headquarters in Plattekloof way back in February or March.
IF THIS IS A GAMBLE IT IS A WORTHWHILE ONE
Some might couch Saturday’s selection as a gamble, but I don’t. It was an entirely anticipated selection for the Scotland game, and neither is there any question that the changes mean that Scotland are being underestimated or disrespected.
Rassie made similar changes in Wellington last year, admittedly in the wake of a defeat, and we know what happened. And that was against the All Blacks.
There have been times when the attitude of “we can choose two or three different teams and it won’t make much difference to the quality of performance” is overdone. And there are always vagaries that can come in to lay to waste the best laid plans.
Rassie had to hastily change plans in the away game against Italy last November when Franco Mostert was red carded early doors.
Scotland are also a team that does deserve respect. You don’t beat France and England with daylight between the scores if you are not a dangerous team, and Finn Russell is back on Saturday. His return is a big boost.
Scotland are also a team that can hurt you quickly, who can score quickly, and as I write in my preview to the game elsewhere on this site, they do make a habit of quick starts. As in fact do their URC teams - when they win. A quick start is important to them.
But I am in Johannesburg this week, and there is too much barb wire on the fences I have seen to think of any fence sitting. I expect Scotland to put up a fight, but the Boks will win comfortably in the end.
And if they don’t then I have egg on my face and Rassie has learned something about the players and combinations he is trying in this game. If it does prove he’s gamble, it was a worthwhile one.
A RECURRING TREND
Part of my confidence of a comfortable Bok win is built around what has become a recurring trend for South African national teams.
If you watch the Boks and you also watch the Junior Boks, you will pick up a similarity in the flow of games, with opposition teams being offered some hope and air to breathe early on but all the while the slow poison of physical superiority is setting the SA team up for almost complete dominance later in the game.
Georgia started with impressive line-speed and flexed their own muscles to good effect in the early stages of their Pool game against the Junior Boks, but by halftime the South Africans and reigning World Junior Championship title holders were in physical control.
It wasn’t immediately evident but as the game wore on it became more and more evident, the SA path to victory became more inexorable. And by the end there was a big margin between the teams. It was the same story in the Junior Boks’ more recent game against Wales.
They actually trailed by 14 points at one point. But ended up winning by one point short of 20.
As their coach Kevin Foote put it afterwards, they are going to have to sharpen up. And it goes without saying they will need to start better in their semifinal against England on Monday.
Given the important players that are absent, such as the selected captain Riley Norton, who was first called up by the senior Boks and then injured, and last year’s flyhalf Vusi Moyo, who is also with the Boks, the SA under-20 side has made a good fist of their title defence so far. And if England do get ahead early, they will know the game isn’t over against a side that grows steadily into the game.
Ditto the Boks, who in games against the Barbarians (it is entirely anticipated in a Barbarians game) and England took control in systematic fashion and elicited references from pundits afterwards, including myself, that the end scoreline flattered the winners.
Maybe it doesn’t flatter the South African teams, it is just what you expect from the way they play and from the power they bring to their game, plus the depth they have coming off the bench.
It is true that England were down to 13 men when the Boks were all over them in the final 10 at Ellis Park, but then those cards came from the pressure the Boks exerted.
Final quarter domination has generally been a trend for the Boks since the Eden Park defeat to the All Blacks last year, with the only exception being the Rugby Championship decider against Argentina in London last year.
There the Pumas came back strongly towards the end, but the Boks would have felt they’d done their job and it was a gifted try that gave the Pumas breathing space in a game that stuck with the general developing trend.
ALTITUDE MATTERS - BUT LESS AFTER DARK
It will be interesting if Jake White ever takes another top job and takes a team to Loftus to oppose the Bulls. He is the architect of the sign that reads “Altitude. 1350 metres. It matters”. I haven’t been into Loftus this week yet as the Boks are based in Joburg, but when I was there to be interviewed for a documentary last August it was.
So what will Jake tell his players? “It’s rubbish, ignore it”. Actually, he knows enough about it to be aware that a lot depends on the time of day the game is being played.
Back in the day, when Ian McIntosh was coaching Natal (the Sharks) and they were coming to Joburg or Pretoria sometimes via a few days in Bethlehem or else somewhere else on the higveld in order to acclimatise, the Currie Cup or Lion Cup games always kicked off in mid-afternoon.
It was still light then, and those who have experienced it tell me that is when it feels sharpest in your lungs. Indeed, I remember having a conversation with the Sharks coaches before a big game at Loftus about 20 years ago and they agreed that they’d hit the jackpot by playing the game at 7pm. In other words, after nightfall. And sure enough, it turned out to be a good game for them, or better than many expected.
As White might tell you, 2pm on a summer’s afternoon is probably the best time for a highveld based team to play an overseas team, or for that matter the Sharks or Stormers. Although the latter have such a good recent record at Loftus, and at any time of day, that it seems they have the altitude bogey well and truly licked.
As do the All Blacks, who have won more games than they have lost on their visits to Ellis Park over the past 15 years. Glasgow did win a Vodacom URC final at Loftus a few years ago, and actually got stronger in the second half.
And a few overseas teams have achieved good results there against the Bulls in the Investec Champions Cup. If you go back and check on kick-off times though, you will find that almost all of those games were played either very late afternoon or early evening.
The theory about the difference in time of day was born out by the Hurricanes’ experience on the highveld 10 years ago. Coached by Chris Boyd and John Plumtree, they put 50 points past the Lions in a night game in the league phase, and then returned for a playoff game thinking they could do the same.
Unfortunately for them, they misread the conditions, starting the game playing at a furious tempo. But what had worked for them under lights worked against them under the harsh rays of the sun and after racing into a handy early lead they started blowing bubbles and were out on their feet for the last 50 minutes and well beaten.
Saturday’s game will be played mostly after dark but my money still says the Boks will be the dominant team in the last quarter. For the reasons outlined in the previous entry in this diary - the slow poison of their physical game - and not because of the altitude.
ALL BLACKS LOOKED OKAY AT THE AIRPORT
So the bus was avoided and I flew to Joburg and it was an uneventful flight, which as I said in last week’s column, is always the best kind of flight. Unfortunately being in the air meant I missed the first part of the All Black game against France, which kicked off probably when the plane I was on was about 37 000 feet above sea level in the vicinity of the Gariep Dam. It would have been out of the window on the right, but I was asleep.
As I had an hour to kill before my colleague Brenden came to pick me up at OR Tambo, for his wife flew in from George an hour after me, I did get to see the second half at the food court. The televisions in the restaurants were mostly trained on soccer, and this is after all World Cup month so we won’t blame anyone for that, but thanks to the miracles of DSTV streaming I was able to watch the game on my laptop.
And it looked like a really good game, with the All Blacks clearly pressing through a changed template under Dave Rennie. One with less kicking and designed to play away from the strengths of the Boks in particular. Will it work in the Greatest Rivalry Series? Who knows, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
But while if I was an All Black supporter I wouldn’t get too carried away with the apparent gains, for after all that French team was far from full strength, what was impressive about the performance was that it was achieved after apparently just six training sessions together.
Because the Sharks, with all their Boks, got knocked out of the URC early, Rassie was able to take his players into camp several weeks before they had their warmup game against the Barbarians in Gqeberha, and the Stormers were out two weeks before that and four before the England game.
It does feel like the Boks have a bit of a head start over some of the others, something further helped by having such an organised coach and system. While England returned home in crisis and not quite knowing what their identity is, the Bok identity and system is so clear.
It’s up to the rest of the nations to find a way to catch up, but knowing Rassie he will find a way to stay ahead of the curve.
GET THE TICKET PRICES RIGHT FIRST TIME
The rugby vibe for me started early in the morning last Saturday, at the Cape Town International Airport. 1995 World Cup hero and well known television pundit Kobus Wiese was on the same flight as me, and so was Francois Louw, a 2019 World Cup winner, who is now living back in the Cape after several years in England.
There were many Bok jerseys in evidence both at the airport and on the plane, and at OR Tambo when we arrived. And thankfully, because ticket prices were lowered, there were more than 50 000 at the game later in the day.
The atmosphere is always good at Ellis Park, but to me, and this is a personal view, it felt just a bit short of the atmosphere experienced there in previous Bok games. Again my personal view, but sometimes the atmosphere is either helped or undermined by the music played at the venue, and it felt like last week it was too often added noise rather than an assist to the occasion.
But a big crowd experience promotes the game more than would have been the case had the stadium been half empty. People who experience a near full stadium want to come back.
So an effort should be made to get the prices right at first hit, and not have to adjust in the week of the game. It really shouldn’t be that difficult. More people paying lower prices surely beats a stadium with empty seats.