Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2022-23? Using the Opta Supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to look at the chances of relegation for each team facing the drop from the top-flight. As the season evolves, we’ll track the progress of those sides in their battle to avoid relegation to the Championship.
6 April 2023
Two days is a LONG time in the Premier League. Certainly, this season and CERTAINLY when it comes to the battle at the bottom of the table.
As you might have expected, Leeds United were the big winners following the Premier League’s midweek action. Their 2-1 victory against fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest was their third in six Premier League games under Javi Gracia (D1 L2), which is as many as they had in their previous 22 this season (D7 L12). This run of form has seen their chances of relegation drop to just 10.6 per cent, the second lowest of the sides in the relegation fight. Next up for the Whites, the not-quite-out-of-the-woods-yet-but-I-think-they-are-going-to-be-safe-very-soon Crystal Palace.
Forest’s loss of form is coming at a terrible time. Winless in their last eight Premier League matches (D3 L5), it’s the longest current run in the division. A 63 per cent chance of dropping back into the Championship after just one season now hangs over them – Aston Villa await on Saturday.
It was always going to be a tough ask for Bournemouth against a Brighton side who are now unbeaten in seven consecutive away league games following their 2-0 victory at the Vitality Stadium. They are still our third favourites (41.8 per cent) to suffer the drop but could see their fortunes drastically change if they can pick up a victory on Saturday.
That’s because they play in a proverbial six-pointer against Leicester City, who are in freefall. The 2-1 defeat against Aston Villa (a game our supercomputer had picked them to win) was their third consecutive home defeat in the competition. It’s the second time they’ve ‘achieved’ this feat this season having not had a poorer run at home since losing four on the bounce in February 2019. It’s all part of a seven-game winless run which has seen their relegation chance increase to 29.2 per cent. They are favourites to win at the King Power Stadium on Saturday – but another defeat and don’t be surprised if that number dramatically increases.
The only other side to see their chance of relegation increase was West Ham in yet another game the supercomputer got proved drastically wrong. It picked the Hammers to see off Newcastle United and, well, it got that very wrong. But is it a disastrous situation for David Moyes’ (TBC) side? Not really, with a just under 15 per cent chance of being demoted even if they do sit 19th in the table. They have two tough tests to come against Fulham and Arsenal before a crunch clash against Bournemouth. Any points from the first two matches will be a welcome relief before taking on the Cherries.
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