The Emirates Lions have wagered their entire season on the next month of rugby, and need maximum points if they are to make the top eight of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship.
While the Lions have the weekend off after their disappointing exit at the hands of Edinburgh last Friday night, it will be the ideal spot for the team to recharge and had some introspection as they try and salvage a season of disappointment that started so well.
It’s hard not to remember their good start to the season where they were part of a handful of teams that were unbeaten after the opening four rounds, and how they touted they were looking for a top four finish.
Since then, after one of the most positive starts in their history, they have crept back into their shells, and have regressed in the way they have played to the point that Lions fans will wonder if this season is at all a step forward from last season?
The equation is clear. While the Lions have a lesser budget than the other three franchises, they have contracted cleverly and done exceptionally well with developing some of the top rising talent in the country.
The likes of Edwill van der Merwe, Quan Horn, Morne van den Berg and Ruan Venter are all Springboks already while Henco van Wyk isn’t far off and Francke Horn and JC Pretorius keep on churning out one good performance after another.
Still, the results haven’t come and often it isn’t because the Lions don’t know what their DNA is, but that they shy away from it. The away games against Leinster and Munster earlier this season were testament to that.
On both occasions, the Lions had the chance to strike a blow for South Africa and their own campaign, and on both occasions they looked more intent on trying to keep the scoreline down.
Now, with the season fast coming to a close, they have four home games left to ensure that like the previous three seasons, they don’t sit in the bottom half and miss out on the top eight.
Last season the Lions reached 50 points and missed out on the top eight, meaning no Champions’ Cup rugby nor URC playoffs.
This time around, with four games left the Lions are on 30 points in 14th position, and while the congested log may be their friend, they won’t get to 50 points without four bonus point wins at home.
That light at the end of the tunnel is a positive for the Lions and few would bet against them if they embraced their game plan in the same manner they did against the Sharks a few weeks ago on their home ground.
A week later they were outplayed, outclassed and well beaten in Durban, underlining the ongoing inconsistency in the team performances this season.
That Sharks win was the last win for them, and since then the Durban loss has been followed by a frustrating loss away to Cardiff, where they dominated every aspect of the game except the scoreboard, a big shutout against Glasgow Warriors and Friday night’s loss to Edinburgh in the Challenge Cup.
Benetton are the first team up next weekend at Ellis Park, and they are sure to be a handful. The Italians were full value in going down to Castres in the last minute 39-37 and are a lot better than their seventh spot on the log gives them credit for. And, of course, they will want the points to ensure they don’t miss out on the top eight as well.
Irish side Connacht are the next up in Johannesburg, and having beaten Cardiff well this weekend showed that they won’t be easy to beat either.
Scarlets and Ospreys complete the four games the Lions need to qualify, and while they will be confident against the Welsh sides, both of them are ahead of the Lions on the log and Ospreys pulled off a sensational Challenge Cup victory in Johannesburg last season. All this points to four difficult games for Ivan van Rooyen and co, with no guarantee of success.
But the Lions have backed themselves into this corner, and now they need to find a way out.
Embracing their game plan at home at altitude might be enough, but the prospect of heading to Leinster or Glasgow for a quarterfinal spot may not be the greatest thought for them.
For now all they can do is aim to qualify and then handle whatever comes next.