Why Nigeria will beat Ghana in the 2022 World Cup playoffs

A day - or maybe two - certainly makes a world of difference as to how one thinks of an opponent, if the attitude of Nigerians to the Super Eagles’ forthcoming World Cup “Jollof Derby” playoff with their Ghanaian cousins, the Black Stars, is anything to go by.

As the best team of the group stages at the last Africa Cup of Nations finals in Cameroon, Nigeria won all their games - the only team in the tournament to do so, as opposed to an impotent Black Stars, whose humiliating 3-2 defeat to tournament debutants the Comoros, sealed their humiliating first-round exit.

The sharp contrast in Afcon fortunes, at the time, gave Nigerians the unbridled confidence to believe, immediately after the playoffs draw, that the Super Eagles will make mincemeat of the Black Stars and easily earn a seventh World Cup appearance in Qatar.

But that was until Tunisia’s Carthage Eagles brought Nigeria’s lofty Afcon expectations crashing back to earth in Garoua, with an unexpected 0-1 defeat in the round of 16, just hours after the Qatar 2022 playoffs draw in Yaoundé. The bitter taste of defeat at the Afcon served a painful warning to Nigerians that football is no respecter of previous results; and a sharp reminder that derby matches with the Black Stars take a peculiar shape and character that defies the formbook, a reality the Super Eagles can only ignore at their peril.

But trust the ebullient Nigerian psyche - trepidation is not something they wallow in for long, with confidence amongst their die-hard supporters returning, as the Eagles prepare for Friday’s first-leg battle at the Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.

What are the reasons for their optimism? Here’s a few of them:

Ghana has no steady, solid leadership on the bench: Between September 2021 and March 2022, the national team is, unbelievably, on to its third set of head coaches and technical staff in six months - CK Akunnor was sacked last September as a result of a poor World Cup qualifying run. He was replaced by Milovan Rajevac, whose return for a second stint of Black Stars management ended in disaster in Cameroon and an ignominious sack, just four months into a one-year contract.

Rajevac was then replaced by a consortium of coaches - Chris Hughton, the former manager of English Premiership side Brighton, former Ghana international Otto Addo, who works as an assistant coach at Borussia Dortmund, and George Boateng, the former Holland international of Ghanaian origin, who is a youth coach at Premiership side Aston Villa.

Chris Hughton is the “Technical Adviser” of the Black Stars, while Addo is the interim head coach, with Boateng as his assistant. The coaching ‘consortium’ will be working with the players for the first time this week, with just three full days to prepare for Nigeria.

Who, in the coaching consortium, will be making the final tactical decisions and team selections for the matches in Kumasi and Abuja? Too many cooks in the managerial kitchen can only spoil the Ghanaian broth and that works pretty well for Nigeria.

The Ayew brothers will be missing: No warship wants to sail into battle without its captain

. Andre ‘Dede’ Ayew, whose red card in that ill-fated Afcon group game against Comoros made him ineligible for the playoffs, is a major absence, as his leadership on the field has been a mainstay for Ghana.

Filling in the on-field leadership hole in the playoffs is certainly going to give the new Black Stars handlers a headache Nigerians will relish.

And the sudden absence of Dede’s younger brother Jordan, whose positive test for Covid means the Crystal Palace striker also plays no part in the Jollof Derby, is the icing on the cake that Nigerians will happily dig their teeth into.

At the request of @SuperSportTV, @garyalsmith & I have done the first of two pieces on the @FIFAWorldCup @NGSuperEagles v @GhanaBlackstars #jollofderby. Gary says why Ghana will win (as if that will ever happen ??), and I explain why Nigeria’s triumph is guaranteed. ??

— Osasu Obayiuwana (@osasuo) March 21, 2022

Ghana’s football leadership have exhausted the goodwill of an angry Ghanaian public and are under tremendous pressure: As my colleague, Gary Al-Smith (who is going to tell you why he thinks Ghana will beat Nigeria, which he knows, deep down, is unlikely to happen!) admitted, in a conversation we had on Sunday, “the Ghanaian public is fed up of the comedy of governance errors from the leadership of the Ghana Football Association that have led to the poor results the Black Stars have had recently. If we fail to qualify for the World Cup, I don’t think they will see the end of their term.”

Missing out on a successive World Cup appearance, particularly at the expense of Nigeria, could prematurely end the tenure of Kurt Okraku as Ghana FA President, as well as his board, even though their term in office doesn’t end until late 2023.

There is no question that the public pressure to deliver the World Cup ticket puts them in the last chance saloon. That can lead to unforced errors in how they manage the playoff series, in which they have only a small window of time to assuage the public’s anger and get things right.

Without doubt, the current governors of the Nigeria Football Federation cannot claim, by any stretch of the imagination, to be the benchmark for good FA governance on the continent.

But Nigeria’s current football administrators have one distinct advantage over their Ghanaian counterparts - they have the vital experience of qualifying for a previous World Cup final under similarly tough conditions, ahead of Cameroon and Algeria, who are equally difficult opponents, compared to Ghana. That management know-how could prove vital.

Nigeria have better players, overall: How will Ghana’s defence contain the attacking ferocity of Napoli’s Victor Osimhen, who unavoidably missed the last Afcon but returns to the Eagles in sterling form? Or that of Kelechi Iheanacho? And the rampaging attacking defender Moses Simon? Have they forgotten the midfield elegance of Joe Aribo?

Ghanaians will certainly be pleased with the distinct absence of Wilfred Ndidi in midfield for Nigeria, where he would have been in direct combat with the equally experienced and very effective Thomas Partey, who is expected to play a crucial leadership role for the Black Stars, in Andre Ayew’s absence.

But can a tree, even a very tall and undoubtedly strong one, make a forest? Nigerians certainly don’t think so.

They expect total victory that will remind their over-ambitious Ghanaian cousins that the Super Eagles are, and forever will be, their football superiors.

That’s as real as the fact that delicious Nigerian jollof rice is superior to the bland Ghanaian version, any day of the week…

Editorial Note: This piece reflects the personal opinion of the writer and is not necessarily the same opinion expressed by SuperSport