FC Copenhagen v Man City: What the stats say

According to the Opta Predictor, Manchester City are favourites to win the Uefa Champions League, with 31.2 per cent chances of lifting the trophy at Wembley in June. They would become only the second team over the last 30 years to successfully defend the title, after Real Madrid’s hat-trick from 2016 to 2018.

In the Top 6 favourites to win this season’s Uefa Champions League, Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain are the only clubs yet to lift Europe’s premier club trophy.

FC Copenhagen (vs Manchester City), Lazio (vs Bayern Munich) and RB Leipzig (vs Real Madrid) are the main underdogs going into the round of 16; they all have under 25 per cent chances of making into the quarterfinals of the Uefa Champions League. The differential between Manchester City and FC Copenhagen in our Global Power Rankings is also the largest among the round of 16 match-ups.

The game between PSV Eindhoven and Borussia Dortmund is the most evenly split according to the Opta Predictor. BVB are slight favourites with 57.3 per cent chances of making it to the quarterfinals (to PSV’s 42.7 per cent).

Among the eight teams that finished second in their group and therefore will host the first leg, Internazionale and Paris Saint-Germain are the only sides with over 50 per cent chances of reaching the quarterfinals.

FC Copenhagen have never beaten Manchester City in four previous meetings in all competitions (D2 L2), drawing both home matches against the Citizens (2-2 in 2008-09 Uefa Cup, 0-0 in last season’s Uefa Champions League).

Manchester City have never won away against Danish opposition in major European competition, drawing with FC Copenhagen in 2009 (Uefa Cup) and 2022 (Uefa Champions League), and losing at Aalborg BK in 2009 (Uefa Cup). They did, however, win 1-0 at FC Midtjylland in 2008-09 Uefa Cup qualifying.

Danish sides have lost all three of their European Cup/Uefa Champions League home games against reigning European champions by an aggregate score of 12-0 - Køge BK 0-5 Bayern Munich in 1976, Aalborg BK 0-3 Manchester United in 2008, and FC Nordsjælland 0-4 Chelsea in 2012.

This is just FC Copenhagen’s second appearance in the Uefa Champions League knockout stages – they were eliminated by Chelsea at the round of 16 stage in 2010-11 (0-2 home, 0-0 away).

Manchester City have won their last eight Uefa Champions League matches, the longest run by an English side in European Cup/Champions League history. The last team to have a longer run were FC Bayern München between 2019 and 2020 (15).

Despite winning the trophy last season, Manchester City haven’t won any of their last five away games in the Uefa Champions League knockout stages (D4 L1), since beating Sporting CP 5-0 in the round of 16 in 2021-22.

Manchester City have averaged 70.4 per cent possession in the Uefa Champions League this season; the most of any side. Indeed, there are only five other instances on record (since 2003-04) of a team averaging more than that in a single campaign – four of which were teams managed by Pep Guardiola (Barcelona in 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12 and Bayern Munich in 2015-16).

18-year-old Roony Bardghji scored FC Copenhagen’s winner against Manchester United in the group stages this season. The only teenager to score against two different English clubs in the Uefa Champions League is Kylian Mbappé (Manchester City and Liverpool), while Bardghji could be the first to do so in the same season.

Julián Álvarez has been involved in six goals in his last five Uefa Champions League appearances for Manchester City (5 goals, 1 assist), despite only starting one of these games. Overall, he’s averaging a goal or assist every 62 minutes in the competition, and one every 31 minutes so far this season.

Rodri has made more line-breaking passes than any other player in the Uefa Champions League this season (100). In fact, after averaging 13.1 line-breaking passes per 90 minutes in the competition last term, the Manchester City midfielder is currently averaging almost double that this season (25.6 per 90).