The words “We didn’t see that coming” were probably uttered over many parts of South Africa in the weekend hours that followed the final whistle in Wellington that signalled the Springboks’ biggest ever win over the All Blacks. And yet was it really that surprising?
It feels like something like that has been coming for a while. It wasn’t an away game for the Boks like the Wellington one was, but think back to Nelspruit in 2022. The Boks won 26-10 at Mbombela Stadium and the New Zealanders were flattered by that scoreline. They scored a consolation try there that brought a false gloss. The Boks missed opportunities on a day where their dominance merited 30 points or more. And that wasn’t a stand alone either.
This latest result wasn’t just the Boks’ biggest win over New Zealand, but the biggest defeat that passionate rugby nation has suffered to any team throughout its proud history. Yet it is the second time in the space of just 24 months that the All Blacks have been beaten by a record score by the same opponents.
Okay, there was context to the 2023 35-7 Bok win at Twickenham. It was a buildup game to the Rugby World Cup in France that followed just a few weeks later. Maybe one team was more switched on than the other. But it was still an international game, it was the old foe against each other, so of course it did matter.
The Boks were so comprehensively better than the All Blacks that night that it was hard to fathom how they managed to get the seven points they did get, and those arrived only late in the game through a consolation try. The Kiwis were on the cusp of suffering a whitewash before the late score.
BLIPS BUT WITH CONTEXT
Of course, there have been blips in among the big wins. Several top players were playing their first international of the year when the Boks went to Mt Smart in 2023 and they suffered for it as the All Blacks put in a furious start that knocked them out of the game in the first 20 minutes.
A week after Nelspruit, a week in which the Boks spoke at press conferences as if they felt sorry for their opponents, the South Africans were caught out by the Kiwis in Johannesburg. Caught out being the key phrase because the Boks started that game sluggishly, changes had been made to the selection that didn’t help, and it felt like there was an element of complacency against a team that was in crisis and desperately needed a response.
In the World Cup final that followed two months after the big Twickenham defeat, the All Blacks pushed the Boks all the way with 14 men. But it was a World Cup final, and for me there was a significant switch in the direction people wouldn’t have expected the momentum to go when Kiwi skipper Sam Cane was sent off towards the end of the first half. The Boks had been bossing the game before that and once they were down to 14 men it was if the All Blacks suddenly had the pressure off and could go for broke, whereas there might have been an opposite impact on the South African psyche.
MASSIVE RESPECT BETWEEN THE NATIONS AND RIGHTLY SO
There is massive respect between South Africa and New Zealand and so there should be. It is just eight years on from the Boks’ biggest ever humiliation - a 57-0 defeat in Albany in 2017. A year before that the All Blacks won 57-15 in Durban. And those of us who were there won’t forget the 52-16 win scored by John Mitchell’s team in 2003.
Those games were before his time, and in dark periods for South African rugby, but Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus was very aware of that history after the game at the Sky Stadium and full marks to him for the humility and magnanimity displayed in the post match press conference.
Of course he also wouldn’t have forgotten the 38 consecutive points his team conceded to Australia in Johannesburg just four weeks ago. The wheel can turn quickly in rugby, and Erasmus will be aware of that.
Yet there was context to what happened in Johannesburg in that most recent game, and when people ask if the second half in Wellington, where the Boks scored 36 unanswered points, was the best window we’ve seen from the South Africans in the modern era, it is hard not to point back to the first quarter against the Wallabies in the opening Championship game, where the Boks went ahead 22-0, as at least equal to it.
Unfortunately the Boks got carried away with the ease with which they got on top of the Wallabies and ended up running themselves off their own feet. In Wellington they showed they had learned from that lesson with the balance they brought to their game.
The point is that the Boks have been building to a position of dominance, and while we shouldn’t forget that the three playoff games at the last RWC were all won by just one point, meaning there isn’t much between the teams, it is when you assess the potential of the Boks and where they are in their current growth that it appears they may be set to go ahead of their arch-rivals by some margin.
The All Blacks sustained a big dent to their aura when they were outplayed by England in the 2019 World Cup semifinal in Yokohama. Since then they have lost to the Pumas a couple of times in New Zealand and also sustained a first ever defeat to that team away, they lost a home series to Ireland in 2022, and until France elected to send a second string team on their most recent tour to New Zealand, they were coming second to that nation too.
DENIAL IN NZ AND PROCESS IN SA
There may be a bit of denial going on in New Zealand too. You used to be able to take poison on there being an overreaction to an even one point defeat, probably because they won so often, but you get the feeling from what we read or hear post-Wellington that there may have been a bit of desensitisation over the past few years. While most South Africans felt the Eden Park game was one where the Boks conspired against themselves, but won the physical battle, the line coming from many Kiwis was that their team played well.
They may have won but given the way the Boks bossed that game from halftime, the All Blacks looked vulnerable. Of course the Boks, in their drive to embrace a more complete game since the arrival of Kiwi Tony Brown as their attack coach, will suffer growing pains in what is a process for the world champion team.
The phrase “growing pains” featured in the headlines when the Boks completed a two-nil sweep of the All Blacks in last year’s Championship with their six point win in Cape Town. The impression was that the South Africans hadn’t been as good as they could have been in either of the two games.
Those growing pains were why many of us sat on the fence and didn’t back a big win before the Wellington game. It was possible the Boks, who had combinations that hadn’t played together often, would need time to gel. That what happened the previous week, where the team conspired against itself, would happen again.
EXCITING TEAM BUILT TO PERFECT ‘TONYBALL’
But there was also general acknowledgement that it was an exciting team that was built for perfecting the Brown game, or Tonyball as we like to call it, and that there was a chance if the passes stuck that they could win big. And that is what happened. We saw for closer to 80 minutes what the Boks had done for 20 minutes against Australia at Emirates Airlines Park.
The Boks looked more talented on paper than the All Blacks did and they also confirmed what was felt might be the point of difference before the Auckland game - their physical game took the All Blacks out of their comfort zone. Which arguably did happen after the 20th minute at Eden Park too.
Since South Africa left Super Rugby the Kiwis haven’t been exposed to the physicality of the game in this country like they used to be and this latest result should spark a return to the focus there was a few years back on the impact of the SA departure from that competition.
Yes, the Wallabies have improved, and so have the Pumas, but the feeling that the Boks were punching well below their weight not only in their earlier games this season but also in that initial year of Tonyball was confirmed in Wellington. Six tries to one, and frankly the Boks were dominant enough in the first half to be ahead at halftime and not trailing.
THE WATERSHED MOMENT HAS NOW BEEN AND GONE
France, who were competitive in two of the matches they recently played in New Zealand against the All Blacks with a second or even third string team, will rightly have something to say about the Bok status as favourites for the next World Cup. They are the one nation that can perhaps match this one for depth and options.
But the Wellington win was the statement win, the watershed, that was hoped for when Erasmus made his selection. We saw what Tonyball could achieve when it was executed with balance, and as Erasmus inferred when afterwards he spoke about it being a squad of 45, there are a myriad of options in most positions.
The Boks can’t get ahead of themselves. The Johannesburg nightmare was a reminder of what can happen if you lose focus. Argentina have a rare chance of making history and will travel to South Africa in a hungry mood for the next Championship game in Durban in just under a fortnight. But the reality is that if they were stung by the criticism that followed the Eden Park defeat, the Wellington result confirmed that criticism was justified.
South Africans are right to have an expectation of big things for their team. The Boks aren’t the chasers anymore, they are the leaders. And in terms of where the coaches want their game to go, this is just the beginning.
Weekend Castle Lager Rugby Championship results
Australia 26 Argentine 28
New Zealand 10 South Africa 43
Castle Lager Rugby Championship log points (points differential separates teams with same points): Australia 11, South Africa 10, New Zealand 10, Argentina 9.