Have the All Blacks lost their minds? The last week has seen them fire a coach with a 74 per cent winning record on the back of a player revolt and now all the hope seems to be on luring Tony Brown away from the Springboks as Jamie Joseph’s assistant?
The strange twists and turns of rugby these days seems to suggest that social media speculation is law and that it is a done deal that Joseph will become the new All Black coach?
But the facts are quite different and while Joseph may end up being the All Black coach, right now there has been no appointment, and the process to find Scott Robertson’s replacement has just begun.
At its worst it feels like a rushed decision by the New Zealand Rugby Union and at best a player power push that may work or may not.
Either way I’ve always been of the opinion that you only change coaches if you know you can bring in someone better.
In 2018 Allister Coetzee’s poor record as coach necessitated a change. The Boks had lost by a record score against the All Blacks home and away. They had lost against Italy and they seemed rudderless and in a very poor state. Within 18 months Rassie Erasmus had come in and the Boks had won the World Cup. It showed that with a bit of direction, and a happy camp anything is possible.
PLAYER REVOLT DANGEROUS
That may be what New Zealand’s rugby bosses are hoping for. Leaked stories of a Crusaders clique in the management, and some appalling handling of fringe players are coming out, and Robertson never seemed to have the support of the broader public despite his success at the Canterbury side.
We may be a bit too far to know the nuances of everything that went wrong but player power is often a very dangerous place to be when a coach gets fired. Ask the Bulls, who went on to lose seven in a row after sacking Jake White.
The All Blacks have always put up this myth of a “no d*#$heads” policy and how culture is everything, but more and more they seem like just another team. They’ve allowed players who have been charged with domestic battery to continue in a team environment, they’ve excused poor off-field behaviour and now it seems they have operated in cliques within the squad.
These are things that happen to all teams and can destroy a team culture if allowed to continue. In short, the myth has been shattered and they are no longer seen as superhuman by other teams.
COMPARISONS TO MEYER
In many ways Robertson was like Heyneke Meyer - a successful Super Rugby coach who got the job four years too late. And international rugby is a different beast to club rugby, where coaches work over a season with players as opposed to just 12 weeks a year.
Meyer was dogged by the fact he had a very successful All Blacks team to face - possibly the strongest team in All Black history that won back to back World Cups. Robertson has the same in the Springboks, who won back to back World Cups and dominated games between the two sides.
And again it comes back to the simple question - will making a change be for the better or more of the same?
Joseph and Brown did well with Japan and Maoris, but those are very different scenarios than the All Blacks. Joseph is a good bloke, a good coach, but one who last won a trophy in 2016. He hasn’t been shooting the lights out at the Highlanders either.
But since Robertson was sacked, he has been the face of saving the All Blacks and it has been just assumed that Brown will join him despite a very good run with the Boks.
You have to ask yourself, why would Tony Brown go back home to New Zealand, especially after he told the media in SA that “you don’t go where you’re not wanted” in response to a question about coaching against the All Blacks.
Brown has been superb in the Springboks’ set-up, players really enjoy him and he has made a marked difference for Rassie Erasmus’ team to keep dominating World Rugby. He has the chance to win a World Cup and more than anything he has a valid contract that binds him until the World Cup.
BROWN CONFIRMED HE IS STAYING AT BOKS
Brown overnight confirmed there is no out clause for him to leave the Boks and the World Champs will expect him to act with integrity and see out his contract.
“I’m obviously contracted. I don’t have an ‘out’ of my contract, so I’m back in South Africa [until the Rugby World Cup],” Brown told The Post.
“Everything’s just speculation. I’m not even sure what New Zealand Rugby’s plans are. No one’s really heard anything,” he added.
But if the NZRU decide to make a big money offer and buy him out of his contract, and the Boks agree, local rugby fans will wish him well.
Because the simple fact is, as much as the All Blacks will get a coach who knows how the Boks operate and think, the Boks know how Brown coaches and will have that IP as well. And if there is one thing that Erasmus is good at, it is planning ways of countering other teams’ strengths.
There is an argument - albeit not one that Kiwi fans want to digest - and that is that the loss of South Africa in Super Rugby and other factors have seen them be put in a position where their players no longer dominate World Rugby.
New Zealand will always have quality players, but every team goes through a dip and right now they have possibly two or three players that would walk into a World XV. Compare that to the 2011-2015 side that had around 9 or 10. The difference could be that simple.
DANGER FOR ALL BLACKS
The real danger for the All Blacks is, by changing the coaching team now, that they may not have the immediate success in July when the test season starts again, and then if they are like Robertson - winning games but not convincingly - they will be in the same boat.
A loss in the Greatest Rivalry tour’s first test - or heaven forbid - against a local franchise - could compound those problems and leave them in a crisis before the 2027 World Cup.
If Brown is there or not, the All Blacks may have other issues they need to fix first.
So then the question comes around again - will the change be for the better or more of the same?
Either way the Greatest Rivalry tour just got a whole lot more interesting.