Can 2023 AFCON buck the goals trend?

Fans will be hoping the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations will buck a worrying recent trend and that the goals will flow at the continent’s showpiece tournament in the Ivory Coast that gets under way on Saturday.

The average number of goals scored per game has decreased in every finals since 2008, culminating in just 1.92 per match in Cameroon two years ago.

That is not a record low, there have been four finals tournaments where fewer goals per game have been scored, but the numbers are on the slide.

Perhaps not surprisingly the early years were the best for goals, but there were fewer matches played – just three in the inaugural 1957 tournament – so we can disregard those. But for the record the average of 4.50 goals per game at the 1962 finals in Ethiopia, when four matches were played, is the best.

But if we only look finals where 16 games or more have been staged, which has been the case since 1968, then the early tournaments still feature heavily, with perhaps one surprising modern-day addition.

There was an average of 3.25 goals scored in each match at those 1968 finals, also held in Ethiopia, helped by the free-scoring Ghanaians, who managed 11 goals in five games but were runners-up to Congo-Kinshasa (now DR Congo).

The trend continued for the next three tournaments in a row, as both the 1970 and 1972 finals had an average of 3.19 goals per game, and in 1974 it was 3.18.

But fifth on our list is the 2008 tournament that was staged in Ghana where, out of almost nowhere, there was an average of 3.09 goals scored in the 32 matches.

For whatever reason, teams found their groove, though there were some wonderful players taking part. The Golden Generation of Ghana was just emerging, while Ivory Coast already had theirs in place.

Samuel Eto’o was in full swing for Cameroon, and eventual champions Egypt were at their efficient best. It was a great time for African football.

The only other modern-day tournaments that come close were 2004 in Tunisia (2.75 goals per game) and 1996 in South Africa (2.69).

The five worst tournaments for goals were 1988 in Morocco (1.44), 2002 in Mali (1.50), 1992 in Senegal (1.70), 1990 in Algeria (1.88) and 2021 in Cameroon (1.92). It is interesting that four of the three were in the period between 1988 and 1992.

But the sixth worst was in Egypt in 2019, when there were just 1.96 goals scored on average in the 52 games played as the tournament was expanded to 24 teams.

GOALS PER GAME AT AFCON FINALS

1957 - 3.50

1959 - 2.67

1962 - 4.50

1963 - 4.1

1965 - 3.88

1968 - 3.25

1970 - 3.19

1972 - 3.31

1974 - 3.18

1976 - 3.00

1978 - 2.38