There are those who are lamenting the fact that the Springboks have left the door slightly ajar for a Pool phase exit, but let’s be realistic about what is required for them to have already played their last game at Rugby World Cup 2023.
An Irish win in any form in the big game of the final round against Scotland in Paris on Saturday night means the Boks are through.
A draw means the Boks are through. If Ireland pick up two bonus points while losing, meaning they score four tries and lose by less than seven, the Boks are through.
The way the points differential stands, the event of a three way tie would mean the Scots have to win by 21 in order for the Bok advance to be in jeopardy. That’s already hard enough to foresee, but it is possible.
The catch though is for the Boks to go out and not the Irish if that unforeseen result comes about is that it will require Ireland to still score four tries to grab a bonus point.
TRY ANOTHER JOKE
Let’s be realistic about this. If Ireland get four tries, they will make it to 20 points in the game. Meaning that at minimum, Scotland would have to win 41-20 in the kind of high scoring game that frankly the miserly defence of Ireland would never enable.
But let’s not forget that the Irish have Johnny Sexton as their place-kicker. He doesn’t miss much. So the four tries will probably all be converted if there are four tries. That takes Ireland to 28 points.
So for Scotland to win by 21, they need to make it to at least 49. Let’s call it 50. This Ireland team conceding 50 points in this era where they have been so dominant? That’s not even a good joke because it is so implausible, so try another one.
Indeed, it is so implausible that I’d rate the chances of the Boks having to play Italy in their quarterfinal as better. I don’t give Italy any hope of beating France in Lyon on Friday, so it just illustrates how unrealistic any prospect of the Boks getting knocked out now really is.
So South African fans can relax, it is far more likely that the Irish exit stage left, which comes about if they lose by eight points and don’t score four tries. That’s not very likely either though.
Take out Fiji and this World Cup’s results have mostly been predictable, with a wide chasm between the top four and the rest, and as big a chasm between the more established rugby nations and the relative newcomers. It’s why a lot of us are really looking forward to this phase of the competition to be done with.
The fact Ireland face potential peril will mean they will be on point against Scotland. They could lose if they play poorly and Scotland excel, but it won’t be by a big margin.
France will beat Italy, so there is no jeopardy in Pool A, and it would be a huge surprise if Argentina lose to Japan too. So expect England to be joined by Argentina as the teams that advance from Pool D.
Australia require Fiji to slip up against Portugal which shouldn’t happen so the quarterfinal line-ups really are quite predictable - France v South Africa, New Zealand v Ireland, Wales v Argentina and England v Fiji. It is after that this World Cup will get really interesting.
Final round of Rugby World Cup Pool matches
New Zealand v Uruguay (Lyon, Thursday 21.00)
The debate in the Kiwi media this week has revolved around whether the All Blacks should rotate or stick with the players that thumped Italy and will be in action in the quarterfinal against either Ireland or South Africa.
For me, that means they are between a rock and a hard place. The New Zealand second stringers have struggled a bit this year, as illustrated by them nearly losing the final Bledisloe Cup game to Australia, and there is a need to keep momentum going after last week’s sizzling performance.
At the same time, the quarterfinal is just a week away, and they can beat Uruguay with black scarves tied across their eyes. So why risk injury?
Whatever happens, the All Blacks, and this is said while acknowledging that Uruguay did play tenaciously against France earlier in the competition, will win by plenty.
Prediction: All Blacks by more than 50
France v Italy (Lyon, Friday 21.00)
This is another of those games where there is potential jeopardy being talked up in order to generate interest whereas the reality is, like was the case when Italy were playing the All Blacks, we already do know who is going to win.
Yes, Italy have occasionally pushed France over the years in the Six Nations, but usually that has happened when either France have been at a low ebb, been complacent or there was nothing on the line.
There’s a lot on the line this time and the All Blacks have laid down a marker. The game will be closer than that one, significantly closer, but the French won’t have any trouble with their advance to a quarterfinal meeting with probably South Africa.
Prediction: France to win by 20
Wales v Georgia (Nantes, Saturday 15.00)
Wales have had two weeks to digest and reflect on the big win over the Wallabies that effectively made them the first team to qualify for the quarterfinal round.
They have nothing riding on this game other than the need to keep momentum going but will also know they’ve lost to Georgia in the past and will be wary of the goodwill being shown to them by their fans and media flipping in the opposite direction. Which it can, and quickly too.
Warren Gatland named his team three days ahead of schedule and it is strong enough to suggest Wales are taking this game seriously. If they take it seriously, they win. By a margin. Simple as that.
Prediction: Wales to win by 17
England v Samoa (Lille, Saturday 17.45)
It is hard to imagine England ever being under the radar with the UK media as it is, but in relative terms, that is what England have been in this World Cup since their opening round win over Argentina.
That’s probably partly because they haven’t really had to play anyone since the first game, and also because while England are getting things done, they are doing it in a boring fashion that, with some previous England teams and campaigns in mind, is tempting to call typical.
They did it in 2007, when they effectively bored the opposition to sleep to make the final, and with the teams on the other side of the draw having the potential to play themselves to a standstill, England and their style are possibly the biggest threat to the final being played between two teams from the top four.
Samoa pushed Ireland in a warmup game recently so they could threaten England for a while but this match is one the boring team should win by more than a score.
Prediction: England to win by 14
Ireland v Scotland (Paris, Saturday 21.00)
There’s been so much hype about this game and of course the Scots would have been targeting it ever since they lost to the Boks in their opening game.
The Scots with their all-embracing style up against an Irish team that is so good at tempo, ball retention, phase play and structured attack could make for one of the more spectacular games of the competition.
But there is too much to lose for both of them for it to be the loose try fest that would be required if the South African advance is to be threatened.
Not for nothing are the Irish the kings of Europe and reigning Six Nations champions, and the No 1 ranked team in the world to boot.
Frans Steyn did make a good point in expressing on television the other day a South African fear that maybe the Irish would put out an under-strength team for this game, but that wouldn’t make any sense given that Ireland could be going home on Sunday if they get it wrong.
Given they’d still need to get a bonus point minimum to advance themselves, they surely don’t fear the Boks that much that they’d take such an outrageous risk in a quest to have the champions removed from the playoff equation.
Prediction: Ireland to win by 12
Japan v Argentina (Nantes, Sunday 13.00)
Japan were much better in beating Samoa last week than they have been for a while and look like one of the teams that is starting to put it together now they’ve had a proper run of games behind them.
But Argentina have also left their opening game blow out, and what a blow out that was, against England behind them.
Goodness knows what afflicted Argentina on the night of 9 September, when England with 14 men and George Ford kicking everything, made them look so poor, but that was possibly the worst Pumas performance I’ve ever seen.
Michael Cheika must have read the riot act because they’ve been a lot better since then and should be better than Japan.
Prediction: Argentina to win by 20
Tonga v Romania (Lille, Sunday 17.45)
Tonga started to hit the straps against the Boks and their coach said afterwards that the best was yet to come, meaning the game against Romania.
The Romanians aren’t in the same league they were in the World Cups of the 1990s, and they and Canada and the USA are good advertisements for the contention that you need to do more than just participate in World Cups in order for your game to advance.
Those other two didn’t even make it to this World Cup and yet in past tournaments they’ve periodically troubled big opponents.
Prediction: Tonga to win by at least 30
Fiji v Portugal (Toulouse, Sunday 21.00)
Poor old Australia. If it wasn’t for the fact they are so good at just about everything else sporting wise, you’d almost be tempted to feel properly sorry for them.
have certainly been given a tough one by having this match that decides their fate set down for the very last one of the Pool phase, which means the Aussies have had to stay in France for this entire week.
They have had to continue training just in case it falls for them, meaning Portugal beat Fiji, but even though Portugal pushed them last Sunday, they would know how good Fji can be when they want to be good.
For Fiji, Sunday’s game is their first knockout clash as a win will put them through (a losing bonus point will also do mind you), so those Wallabies who are holding out some hope are doing so in vain.
Seriously though, Fiji have been one of the most watchable teams at the tournament and so have Portugal so this is one worth staying up for.
Prediction: Fiji to win by 18