Will the Carling Currie Cup dream stay alive for the so-called smaller unions, or will the Fidelity ADT Lions swoop in and steal it away from them?
The stage is set for the Currie Cup semifinals this weekend and while three of South Africa’s top four franchises have been ousted with the young teams they selected for the tournament, the Lions decision - as they did last year - to use the competition as a long United Rugby Championship pre-season - allowed them to finish top of the log after the pool rounds.
There is no doubt that the budget and quality of the Lions starters - who will all be lining up in the URC in a few weeks time - is both bigger and better than the other three teams that have qualified for the Currie Cup semis, but will it be enough to see them to the title.
Last season that same strategy was upended by a similar strategy and a last minute kick by the Sharks in the final. This season there seems to be little that is standing in their way to take the title - except for the bravery of some of the smaller sides still in the competition.
Forget the fact that this same strategy bit the Lions badly in the closing stages of the URC where their insistence on concentrating on the Currie Cup led to a string of late URC season injuries and a very bad dip in form.
In the Currie Cup pond they are very much the big fish and will want to dine on the smaller fry.
There are so many debates on the go about the domestic competition and its place in the SA Rugby ecosystem, but for the next two weeks, the only debates will be about where the golden trophy will rest for the next 12 months.
And the Lions are intent that they will take it to Ellis Park.
On paper, with a bunch of URC stalwarts, everything points to them rolling into the final on the back of their stars. Their opposition - Boland Kavaliers - are dipping in form and have had their dream Currie Cup debut stunted by the loss of key players to injury and their own form in their last few games.
To be fair, Hawies Fourie’s side have punched above their weight and made their supporters believe in this Currie Cup season, claiming a number of scalps along the way. But the season may be a game too far for them unless they can repeat their giant-killing exploits away from home in the Lions’ den, so to speak.
Fourie would already have been very satisfied in what his players have achieved, and will believe the season was already a success, but the hope that comes with making the playoffs will fuel Boland in these 80 minutes.
The team did receive a boost when two players - flyhalf Ashlon Davids and fullback James Tedder returned from injury after missing their last game against WP last week. Davids, Tedder, Sibusiso Sangweni and HP van Schoor are all ex-Lions players and will be keen to get another win over their former paymasters.
The other semifinal sees Frans Steyn’s Toyota Cheetahs face their nearest rivals - Suzuki Griquas - in a very interesting fixture in Kimberley.
Not only did Griquas win the pool fixture quite easily a few weeks ago, but they have been quietly building as a side and will be supremely confident going into the game. Their coach - Pieter Bergh - is one of the most promising rising stars in coaching ranks and will want nothing more than to give the region another title.
The Cheetahs have lost young Franco Smith to concussion, meaning Clayton Blommetjies will play flyhalf, and is likely to be a target for Griquas. Blommetjies can be brilliant but his off-days can be costly as well.
The derby will be fascinating to watch, with Griquas looking to maximise home advantage to try and make their second final under Bergh.
FIXTURES
Carling Currie Cup semifinals
Saturday
Fidelity ADT Lions v Sanlam Boland Kavaliers
Ellis Park, 5pm
Prediction: Lions to win by 14
Suzuki Griquas v Toyota Cheetahs
Suzuki Stadium, Kimberley 7.15pm
Prediction: Griquas to win by 7