The Bahrain and Saudi Arabian grands prix are unlikely to be replaced on what would become a 22-race Formula One calendar if, as now looks probable, they are cancelled due to conflict in the Middle East.
Multiple senior sources in the F1 paddock told Reuters on Friday that reducing the world championship from a scheduled 24 rounds was the most probable outcome.
Bahrain's floodlit race at the Sakhir circuit to the south of Manama is scheduled for 12 April, with the Saudi race in Jeddah due on the following weekend.
MotoGP is also due to race at Qatar's Lusail circuit near Doha on April 12 and has said that date looks very difficult for them to fulfil, with the round unlikely to move to another venue. The World Endurance Championship (WEC) round in Doha on 26-28 March has been postponed.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain's capital Manama have been targeted by Iranian missiles and drones, with a hotel hit in the latter city, after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran. Major airports in the region, significant hubs for international travellers, remain closed.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NO OBVIOUS GAPS
Rescheduling the Formula One races for the same venues later in the year would be extremely difficult since temperatures are much higher in the region through the European summer and autumn.
There is also an absence of obvious slots, with Formula One keen to maintain its August break and relieve the burden on teams.
Although several circuits have been mooted in the media as possible replacements – Italy's Imola, France's Le Castellet and Portugal's Portimao, as well as Turkey's Istanbul Park – the practical reality of shifting the circus at short notice makes it a major logistical challenge.
There would also be little incentive for promoters and a limited window to sell tickets to cover the hosting fees, while organising marshals, security and transport takes time.
Hosting another race at Japan's Suzuka after round three, another option suggested, would raise another set of problems and track owners Honda would also have little incentive to cast a double spotlight on their own embarrassing engine woes with Aston Martin.
While races were held behind closed doors at stand-in venues during the Covid-19 pandemic, with some circuits holding two in succession, there was a pressing need then to complete a season.
A reduced 22-race calendar – still a long season compared to many in the past – would meet commercial obligations even if reducing Formula One's overall revenues.
BAHRAIN WAS CANCELLED IN 2011 WITHOUT REPLACEMENT
The Middle Eastern races are major contributors to Formula One's bottom line, but Bahrain and Saudi Arabia also have far deeper ties to the sport, the former as owners of champions McLaren and the latter as sponsors and investors.
When the Bahrain Grand Prix was cancelled in 2011 due to unrest in the kingdom, it was not rescheduled after teams objected to a late October date.
"We want our role in Formula One to continue to be as positive and constructive as it has always been, therefore, in the best interest of the sport, we will not pursue the rescheduling of a race this season," the circuit chairman, who subsequently became a government minister, said at the time.
Formula One's then commercial supremo Bernie Ecclestone said later that Bahrain had paid the hosting fee anyway.
Formula One's current chief executive Stefano Domenicali and Mohammed Ben Sulayem, president of the governing International Automobile Federation (FIA) have both said safety comes first.
"We don't want to do any statement today because things are evolving and we still have time to make the right decision. This decision will be taken together," Domenicali told Sky Sports television in Melbourne.
The Italian is expected to meet F1 bosses on Saturday.
"It's the first get-together of all the teams. There's been very little communication about it (the situation) yet because of the effort that it took just to get here to Australia," said McLaren boss Zak Brown.
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff told reporters: "I would very much hope we race. Is it realistic that we race there at the moment? I'm not quite sure".
While Formula One still has time before a decision has to be taken, other deadlines are fast approaching.
Formula Two, a support series to Formula One, also has its first race of the season in Australia this weekend but the freight is then due to be flown to Bahrain on Monday for a test on 25-27 March at Sakhir.
One senior source in the Formula Two paddock said teams were still awaiting clarification but expected both test and race to be cancelled, with an announcement possibly over the weekend.
If the Bahrain F2 round, on the same weekend as Formula One, and the Saudi one are cancelled without replacement then the second race of the championship would not be until Monaco in June.