Max Verstappen says that the Japanese Grand Prix is one of his favourite races, but his chances of a fifth straight victory at the weekend look vanishingly slim as his Red Bull struggles with Formula One's sweeping new regulations.
Mercedes drivers George Russell and Kimi Antonelli will carry their early dominance into Suzuka with Ferrari's Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton their nearest challengers.
Red Bull and Verstappen are scrambling to recover from a disastrous start to the Formula One season, as are McLaren whose drivers – world champion Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri – both failed to start in China with separate technical problems.
Verstappen, the four-time world champion, finished sixth in the opening grand prix in Australia after crashing in qualifying.
He then limped home ninth and out of the points in the Shanghai sprint before retiring from the main race.
Verstappen has raged against the 2026 regulations and new car designs, branding them "anti-racing" and likening them to the Mario Kart video game with their electrical boost and overtake modes.
The Dutchman sought a change of scenery by competing at a four-hour race in Germany last weekend, but even that did not lift his gloom as he was disqualified after winning.
Verstappen has been unbeaten in Japan for the past four years and he clinched his second world title there in 2022.
His problems in China, where he was ordered to retire on lap 46 of the grand prix because of a cooling issue, suggest his Suzuka dominance could end on Sunday.
"Getting on top of our problems is not easy," Verstappen said in Shanghai.
"It would help if we would just have a normal start – I've been every time dropping to last."
ANTONELLI BREAKTHROUGH
Verstappen's struggles are in stark contrast to the flying start enjoyed by Mercedes, who secured one-two finishes at both grands prix so far.
Championship leader Russell triumphed in Australia and 19-year-old Antonelli picked up the first win of his fledgling career in China.
Russell took the chequered flag in the Shanghai sprint and Mercedes will target a Suzuka triumph for the first time since Valtteri Bottas won in 2019.
Antonelli, who became the youngest pole-sitter in Formula One history in Shanghai and the second-youngest race winner after Verstappen, was given a hero's welcome when he returned to his native Bologna in Italy.
The win had "removed a bit of weight from my shoulders", said Antonellii.
"It's the kind of result which gives you strength and more awareness of what you can do."
McLaren have endured a nightmare start to the campaign under the new regulations which require battery management and energy harvesting with a 50-50 split between conventional and electrical power.
Defending champion Norris, who complained his car "sucks", is 36 points behind Russell while Piastri is yet to take part in a grand prix this season after he crashed on his way to the grid in Melbourne.
"We just have to take it on the chin, learn what the problem was and make sure it never happens again," Norris said in Shanghai.
"All of us want to go racing and score points."
The teams will have time to regroup after Suzuka, as there will be a five-week gap until the Miami GP as the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia races were cancelled because of the war in the Middle East.