On the face of it, the Vodacom Bulls face a tough task in the final round of the pool phase of their Investec Champions Cup challenge - the Bordeaux Begles have been in imperious form recently both in Europe and in the French domestic league and have winning momentum.
Not only that, but in order for them to advance to the next round as one of the top two in Pool 1, thus securing the much-craved-for home-ground advantage in the round of 16, Jake White’s men are going to have to hope Saracens win their home match against Lyon. If they don’t, then the Loftus result becomes irrelevant. Lyon are two points ahead of the Bulls currently and three behind Bordeaux, who have picked up a full house of five log points in every game they’ve played.
But it may be a lot less difficult than it appears. After pushing Lyon so close themselves, and in Lyon too with an under-strength team, the Bulls will know that Lyon are beatable, particularly away from home. And the fact Saracens were so abject last weekend in being hammered in Bordeaux means Owen Farrell’s team need a response and need to bounce back. Their own round of 16 qualification is on the line.
DON'T UNDERESTIMATE HOW GOOD THE PRETORIA TEAM ARE
As for their own chances of beating Bordeaux, let’s not underestimate how good the Bulls are. They lost to the Stormers before Christmas and were unlucky to lose to Lyon - Jaco van der Walt missed a kickable penalty that would have won it for them at the death - but then it is not as if those two opponents away from home are Mickey Mouse teams. And the Bulls had their moments in both.
Otherwise, their defeat in Edinburgh notwithstanding, the Bulls have had impressive momentum, and while the Stormers have rallied well since the start of December, the men from Pretoria have definitely been the most consistent South African side across both competitions. In my book, they were unlucky not to get a draw against Ulster away in Belfast in their second match of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship season too.
They may be missing prop Wilco Louw to injury, and he is a big loss, as well as two Springbok wings who are on leave, but Willie le Roux is available for the mid-afternoon shoot-out. Devon Williams has grown as a fullback and was good last week, but if he starts, the Springbok World Cup winner does bring a different dimension to the Bulls’ attacking game.
CONDITIONS HEAVILY FAVOUR THE HOSTS
Mid-afternoon shoot-out? Ah, there’s another really good reason why the money should go on the Bulls in what for them is possibly the biggest game in their Champions Cup history - playing the Bulls in the summer heat at 3pm at altitude has to be a nightmare of note for any visiting team. And it does give the Bulls a significant advantage. Let’s put it this way, if Bordeaux do win, then they will have confirmed their growth to becoming one of the big four in the competition - the others being Toulouse of course, plus Leinster, and, based purely on their performance against Leicester Tigers last week, La Rochelle too.
MUCH ON THE LINE FOR STORMERS TOO
The two South African teams may lag but they are a lot closer to that group than they were a year ago. Certainly, if the DHL Stormers get through as winners against Stade Francais in Paris in the later game featuring a local team on Saturday, they will have taken a significant step in their own growth. It will be their first win in France, and their first overseas since they beat London Irish at the home of the Brentford Premier League football club 12 months ago.
It will also surely be enough to confirm second spot in Pool 4, and a home clash in the round of 16. There was an anagram sent out during the week that confirmed that if the competition were to finish after round 3, the Stormers and Bulls would play their round of 16 against each other in Cape Town. But that should change after this weekend so a first ever Champions Cup derby looks less likely.
SA TEAMS SHOULD PROGRESS IN CHALLENGE CUP
In the Challenge Cup the outlook looks good for all three competing South African teams. The Emirates Lions lost away in France last weekend but actually didn’t do badly with a completely second-string team. They should have their key players back for Sunday afternoon’s clash at the Emirates Airline Park with the Ospreys.
Yes, an afternoon game, so the same counts here as it does for the Bulls - that should be a significant advantage against a team that they should beat comfortably anyway if they retain the form that has carried them into a strong challenging position for a place in the Champions Cup next season.
The Hollywoodbets Sharks have spoken a bit about a potential turnaround after their win over Oyonnax last weekend but that might be a bit premature. The visitors are languishing on the Top 14 log and sent a second-string team to Hollywoodbets Kings Park, and the game was played in what I have been told were wretched humid conditions, so a 38-7 win and an error-ridden performance might be less than what should have been expected.
Still, one of the three teams the Sharks have beaten this season is the Dragons, who they play in Wales on Sunday. The Durbanites will be favoured to score the win that will give them their first successive winning sequence since the start of the season and they already have a lead at the top of their pool so they are odds-on to finish top.
The Toyota Cheetahs, who were disappointing against Pau in Amsterdam last Sunday, are one of the teams chasing the Sharks. They may fancy their chances of winning away against Oyonnax at the weekend and thus, hopefully from a local viewpoint, making it three out of three against French teams for South Africa this weekend.
Weekend Investec Champions Cup fixtures and what is on the line:
Friday
Glasgow Warriors v Toulon (Glasgow, 10pm)
Franco Smith’s Warriors need to win to stay comfortably in the top four, and to get ahead of their fellow URC team, Munster, in the final Pool 3 placings. Toulon, almost unbelievably, are at the bottom of the log but can still sneak into the round of 16 if they win and other results go their way.
Connacht v Bristol Bears (Galway, 10pm)
Connacht’s return to the elite European competition has not gone well for them, and they’ve suffered some big defeats. Their hope from this game is not that they will secure an advance to the round of 16, but that they can lift themselves to fifth in the pool, which will mean they drop into the business end of the Challenge Cup. It will mean that Saracens have to lose to Lyon and they will also have to prevent the Bears, who are currently fourth and four points ahead of them, from picking up a losing bonus point.
Saturday
Vodacom Bulls v Bordeaux Begles (Pretoria, 3pm)
Bordeaux are assured of top spot if they win. If they lose, they become vulnerable to Lyon, who play Saracens later in the day and are currently just three points behind them, in second position in Pool 1. The Bulls, who have promised to go toe to toe with Bordeaux in this game, can only finish second as the points differential in Bordeaux’s favour is too big and they have a five-point advantage, but second will be enough to give them home-ground advantage in the round of 16. The Bulls will then still have to rely on Saracens beating Lyon later on Saturday evening.
Harlequins v Ulster (London, 3pm)
Harlequins are one of three teams that have already qualified for the round of 16 from Pool 2, but Ulster will join them if they win what should be an absorbing game at The Stoop. A win for Ulster will put them out of the range of fifth-placed Racing 92, who are currently two points behind the play-off bracket, on three points to Ulster’s five.
Racing 92 v Cardiff Rugby (Paris, 5.15pm)
Cardiff suffered their biggest home defeat in Europe in many years last weekend and have just two points from their three matches, but they can still sneak into the top four if they win this game and other results go their way. It is more likely though, seeing that Racing have home-ground advantage, that Siya Kolisi and his team will win and then their advance will depend on how Ulster have done in the earlier game on Saturday afternoon in London.
Leicester Tigers v Leinster (Leicester, 5.15pm)
This is probably the match to watch this weekend if you are a neutral and have to watch only one. Leinster are out of range of the chasing pack in Pool 4, but will want to win so that they can get the highest possible seeding for the round of 16, with the higher you are seeded usually meaning the easier your game in the round of 16 should be. There’s also a long tradition of rivalry in the competition between these clubs, one that has been dominated by Leinster. If Leicester Tigers can change that, they can pip the Stormers to second in the pool and get home advantage for the playoffs.
Munster v Northampton Saints (Limerick, 7.30pm)
Munster produced one of their performances of the season so far in dispatching Toulon in Toulon last week, and it was under intense pressure too. They are third and realistically can’t finish higher, but will want to win to keep ahead of the Warriors, currently three behind them, and Bayonne, who are fifth but still have an outside chance of winning. The URC champions are up against one of the form teams in Europe in Northampton Saints, who top the group one point ahead of Exeter Chiefs.
Stade Francais v DHL Stormers (Paris, 7.30pm)
Stade are a class team, at least if you look at their high position on the Top 14 log, but the big question revolves around their intent in Europe. Their current position at the bottom of the table means a round of 16 place is beyond them, and they are playing to pip Sale to fifth, which would mean they compete in the playoff stages of the Challenge Cup. Do they want that? What we do know is their opponents are desperate for the win that will most likely keep them in second position and secure a Cape Town round of 16 game. The Stormers are aiming high, but thanks to the bonus point they gifted to Sale Sharks last week, they are still potentially vulnerable to the Manchester team’s quest for a top-four spot. Unlike the last time they were in Europe, the Stormers will go full strength for this game and it will be a good test of their growth. They should have Ben Loader back on the wing and possibly Joseph Dweba back in the starting team.
Saracens v Lyon (Watford, 10pm)
Sunday
Sale Sharks v La Rochelle (Manchester, 3pm)
Sale are fifth in Pool 4 but can potentially still finish second if they pick up a bonus point win against the reigning champions, Leinster deny Leicester Tigers a bonus point, and Stade Francais do the same to the Stormers in Paris. La Rochelle were back at their outstanding best in humiliating the Tigers last Sunday and will start as favourites to win, a result that will end the jeopardy they landed in after losing to Leinster and the Stormers in December and could potentially still put them second.
Toulouse v Bath (Toulouse, 5.15pm)
Toulouse have arguably been the form team in the competition, but Bath come to them level on points at the top of Pool 2 and with plenty to play for after their good win in a tight game against Racing 92 a week ago. This game could rival the one at Welford Road for the game of the weekend status, with the pole position in the Pool being what the teams are aiming for.
Bayonne v Exeter Chiefs (Bayonne, 7.30pm)
A Bayonne win could see them make it into fourth, and a place in the round of 16. Exeter are playing for top spot in Pool 3, something they will achieve if they win and Northampton Saints, currently one point ahead of them, come a cropper against Munster in Limerick.
EPCR Champions Cup - South African games
Oyonnax v Toyota Cheetahs (Saturday, 5.15pm)
There’s a lot on the line for the Cheetahs, who cooked against the Sharks and Zebre before Christmas but were a bit disappointing last week against Pau in Amsterdam. If they win they could still finish top in Pool 1, ahead of the Sharks, while defeat will leave them vulnerable to a pack of teams just one or two points behind their current second spot in the form of Pau, Zebre and the Dragons. Obviously if they lose, the Sharks can help their countrymen out on Sunday by beating the Dragons, which would ensure the Bloemfontein team that plays out of Amsterdam in this competition of a place in the round of 16.
Emirates Lions v Ospreys (Sunday, 3pm)
With Newcastle Falcons and Perpignan so far behind them, the Lions have already qualified for the Round of 16, but a win over the Ospreys can lift them from third to second, ahead of Benetton and behind Montpellier, in Pool 2. They should win given it is a 3pm kick-off in summer at altitude, so the rise and rise of the Lions should continue, with their final finish depending on the result of other games.
Dragons v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Sunday, 7.30pm)
The Sharks have effectively already qualified for the round of 16, their mission in this game is really to secure the win that will enable them to top Pool 1, which will give them a favourable run through a competition they may need to win as the other route to Champions Cup qualification as the URC is closing up for them. A Dragons win will see them qualify for the round of 16, a loss will see them drop out, so they too have much to play for.
The other EPCR Challenge Cup fixtures this weekend
Friday
Scarlets v Edinburgh (10pm)
Gloucester v Castres (10pm)
Saturday
Pau v Zebre (3pm)
Black Lion v Clermont Auvergne (3pm)
Benetton v Montpellier (3.15pm)
Sunday
Perpignan v Newcastle Falcons (3pm)