The equation is simple. Win and the Emirates Lions are in the EPCR Challenge Cup Round of 16 playoffs. Lose to the Dragons and the Challenge Cup campaign is over.
It couldn’t be a more direct message for Lions coach Ivan van Rooyen after another disappointing performance against Montpellier on Saturday where they lurched to another defeat.
The Dragons are level with the Lions on five points and with the other three sides in the pool already qualified for the Round of 16, only one spot is left - and that will come down to the performance in Johannesburg this weekend.
The Lions have already beaten the Dragons at Rodney Parade this season, so the smart money would be on them to beat the URC’s bottom side in this one-off game, but with Lions’ performances of late nothing can be taken for granted.
The high-scoring win over Pau was the only light in the last two months where the Lions have lost to Leinster, Munster, Ospreys, Stormers and Montpellier.
And in the process they have dropped to 11th on the URC log, and now need to win this game if they are to progress further in the Challenge Cup.
How things stand after Round 3 👇#ChallengeCupRugby pic.twitter.com/ZcvWDAl34m
— EPCR Challenge Cup (@ChallengeCup_) January 12, 2025
The reality has hit the coaching staff as they navigate a game they would normally be expected to win rather easily at home, and there is a big desire to put in a performance that would be worthy of their fans' expectations.
“The defeat means that next week is a non-negotiable in terms of results to get a spot in playoffs,” Van Rooyen said after the loss to Montpellier, driving home the obvious.
“It will be our second home game in six games. It is important for us to find to pull it back at home. Important to find our feet, we need to get settled in and put in some good performances.
“We have to get back home, rest and recover well and get the business done next week.”
The problem with the campaign is even if the Lions do qualify, they will have a low seeding in the playoff rounds, which probably means an away trip to an in-form side, which will be just as difficult.
Meanwhile the odds are just as stacked against the Toyota Cheetahs from moving into the playoffs as they head to Lyon this week to complete their pool fixtures.
Cohen Jasper’s last gasp try gave them a win over Zebre Parma on Sunday but with Connacht the only side that has qualified from the group, the rest is a five-way fight for the final three spots in the group.
Lyon is virtually assured of a spot already with nine points but could technically lose out if the Cheetahs beat them. With Perpignan facing Zebre, and both still potentially being able to qualify, one will fall out there. Perpignan are on six points, the same as the Cheetahs, while Zebre have the slimmest chance and need a big win as they only have two points in hand.
Cardiff are also in danger, and face Connacht in their final pool game. The Welsh side is on seven points, which means it is likely to be a bunfight for the final spots in the group.