When the Pools were confirmed at a time when the memories were still fresh of England’s appearance in the 2019 World Cup final in Yokohama, most would have made them favourites to finish top and advance to the quarterfinal phase without so much as raising a sweat.
A lot has changed though in recent years. The man who took England to the previous final was jettisoned last November after a poor run of form, and his replacement Steve Borthwick has fared even worse. Every time England plays, like they did most recently against Fiji, the long suffering England supporters and media ask “Surely it can’t get any worse?”
But it does, and although Fiji are in a different bracket to their fellow South Pacific Islanders Samoa, and for that matter Japan, who appear to have regressed a bit since their excellent campaign as the host nation four years ago, none of those opponents will be taken for granted. Which could mean England could be in more potential jeopardy in the Pool than we’d have thought when they landed in this group at the World Cup draw.
They certainly need to find some kind of attacking game, something they are well short of, and while their scrumming has improved just recently, they still struggle against proper opposition at forward.
They were comprehensively beaten by a not particularly slick Ireland - their first choice team was playing together for the first time this season - in their penultimate warmup game and were also done by Wales in Cardiff. Given that Australia did show some promise when they lost their final warmup game to France, and also came close to beating New Zealand in Dunedin, it is easy to arrive at the conclusion that England performed worst of all the top nations in the warm-ups.
ARGENTINA NOW FAVOURITES
So they find themselves in a situation where their first opponents, Argentina, are now favourites to win their opening game in Marseille next Saturday night. At least that is what the current World Rugby Rankings will tell you - Argentina are sixth and England are a lowly eighth.
And yet the one talking point that is likely to be often repeated during the World Cup is the disparity brought about in the Pool phases by the decision to make the draw when the rankings were very different to today.
The team currently eighth can certainly win this Pool, and even if they don’t, there’s still a good chance they will avoid the humiliation they suffered at their own World Cup in 2015, when they never made it out of the group phase.
As the sacked predecessor to Borthwick was brought in to rescue England from the dire straits they were in back then, it wouldn’t look good for England if they found themselves returning to that nadir. It is unlikely to happen, but we’re talking about England…
The reality though is that, poor though England have been, they do have an opportunity to build confidence before the knock-outs arrive, and they won’t be playing anyone spectacularly strong there either (Argentina, Wales or Fiji). Given the depths they plunged to, a place in the semifinal might just be seen as a win, as it probably will be for the struggling Wallabies.
UNKNOWN QUANTITY
Argentina arrive as a bit of an unknown quantity given their fluctuating form during the part of the season that preceded this point - they beat Australia in Australia but were hammered by the All Blacks at home; they came close to beating the Springboks in Johannesburg but then were outplayed by a South African second string team in Buenos Aires a week later.
Under Michael Cheika though they are canny and street-smart, and if they can keep their discipline in check they have enough talent and the all-round game to repeat what they did in France in 2007 by making the semifinal, something they also managed on the other recent occasion the World Cup was played in Europe (England in 2015).
My money says they will be in the last four. The smart money should be on the Pumas finishing top and England second, with Samoa and Japan fighting it out for third. Both of those last mentioned teams have done well in World Cups played in France or the UK - Argentina in France in 2007 and England in 2015 and Samoa in England in 1991.
POOL D (World Rugby ranking in brackets)
Argentina (6th)
The Los Pumas have managed something since the last World Cup that they’d never done before - they beat the All Blacks. In fact, they did that twice, as they followed up their breakthrough win at a neutral venue, Sydney, in the Tri-Nations played in the first Covid year with another win in 2022. The second one was even more noteworthy for the fact that it was achieved in New Zealand, with not many nations being able to say they have beaten New Zealand in their own country.
So given how they’d battled for that breakthrough moment before 2020, and the record is still very lopsided in favour of New Zealand - played 36 of which New Zealand have won 33 and one match drawn - the current Pumas team will go to the World Cup knowing that in their history they have beaten all potential opponents.
That should be a step forward for them in comparison to previous visits to a tournament where they have occasionally exceeded expectations. Indeed, the last time the World Cup was played in France, the Pumas made the semifinal phase, where they lost to the eventual winners, South Africa. They then went on to beat the hosts in the bronze medal playoff game and finished third.
MADE SEMIS IN 2015 TOO
In 2015 they also made the semifinal phase in England, where they were beaten by the Wallabies. They lost the third/fourth playoff game to the Springboks.
One reason why Argentina should be favoured to go quite deep in this tournament is the draw, which sees them not playing any of the nations ahead of them on the world rankings until the semifinal weekend. In that sense they might be a safer bet for the top four than any of the current top four on the rankings given that Ireland, South Africa, France and New Zealand have to play each other in the quarters.
Another reason they might go far is because the tournament is in France, where the bulk of the Argentina team either currently plays club rugby or has played. It was said when they beat France in the 2007 World Cup - they actually did it twice, once in the opening game and again in the bronze medal fixture - that it was because they did not have any psychological problems when facing players they knew so well.
Since then the Pumas players have been exposed to both south and north competitions through their time as the Jaguares in Super Rugby.
England (8th)
If you consider that the first year post-World Cup was pretty much stillborn because of Covid, you could argue that the losing finalists from 2019 have been a calamity ever since that heady day when the Springboks outplayed them in Yokohama to miss out on lifting the Webb Ellis trophy for a second time.
In the last two Six Nations they have managed only two wins and have finished near the bottom of the table, and the last time they played their main rivals in the group, Argentina, they lost at Twickenham.
While England were poor in the last days that Eddie Jones was their coach, they’ve arguably been even worse since Steve Borthwick took over. Certainly they’ve been employing a very turgid style of rugby that appears to be completely devoted to winning territory and playing from there. Unfortunately for England winning territory is meaningless if you don’t have an attacking game and when wing Jonny May scored against Fiji in the final warmup game it was something like six hours of rugby since last anyone other than a forward had scored for England.
The only game they won in the warmups was the home clash with Wales, but Wales were effectively a second string team that day and it was close, with England at one stage reduced to 12 men due to a spate of cards.
Discipline has been a problem for England in the buildup, the references being the red cards and subsequent suspensions incurred by skipper Owen Farrell and Billy Vunipola. Both those key players have been suspended and will miss the start of the tournament against Argentina.
It has arguably been the worst England buildup to a World Cup ever, and they go in with low expectations. Maybe that will work for them, as when you have a losing habit one win can become more meaningful from a psychological point of view than it would otherwise be. It wouldn’t be unlike England and their supporters and media to suddenly feel galvanised by a win over a lesser nation. They’re good at making the mediocre seem like championship material.
Samoa (12th)
Samoa came within a few minutes of beating the world’s No 1 ranked team Ireland in their final warmup game, and on that basis they should be a threat to England in this Pool. However,
a month out from the start of the tournament the odds on Samoa winning the World Cup were 250-1 and that is about right. Their bruising physicality will make them tough opponents, and they may push England for their place in the quarterfinals, and if they achieve that it will be a repeat of their famous achievement of making the playoffs in England in 1991.
But while Samoa also made the quarterfinal in South Africa four years later (1995), their star has waned since then, perhaps partly due to the growth of the rugby league code in their country.
Japan (14th)
Japan promised a lot of growth when they made such a good fist of their participation in their own World Cup in 2019, with their win over Ireland and then the way they ran Scotland off their feet in the final Pool game ranking among the highlights of one of the most memorable and entertaining Rugby World Cups ever. They are certainly a well coached team and bring something different with their commitment to a fast paced, attacking game.
Of course, it was also in not so distant England that Japan rugby achieved its finest moment, that being the win over the Springboks in Brighton that rocked the rugby world in 2015. The top nations have been aware ever since then of what Japan are capable of, and England will be wary of them, as will the Pumas.
However, when Japan rounded off their buildup by being well beaten by Italy it brought a touch of reality to their chances and also a bit of perspective. When Japan are playing make sure you are watching or you might just end up missing something quite freaky, and at the very least you can always expect a spectacle. But don’t bet your house on Japan repeating their feat of 2019 where they made the quarterfinal or for that matter matching their 2015 effort, where they were within a whisker of advancing at Scotland’s expense.
Chile (22nd)
The one thing Chile have in their favour as they make history by appearing in their first ever Rugby World Cup is the fact that the players all know each other extremely well. That is because the bulk of their team comes from the same club, the Santiago based Selknam team, which was formed four years ago to compete in the first ever America’s Super Rugby season in 2020.
Talking of America, it was at the expense of the USA that Chile qualified for France 2023, beating the Eagles by just a single point across a two leg tie. Before that they also beat another regular World Cup participant from the past, Canada.
Chile became the third South American side to appear at the World Cup after Argentina and Uruguay and are ranked 22 in the world, meaning they are the lowest ranked team competing in France.