The Rugby World Cup warmup phase has felt more long-winded than it normally is, with attention being hogged by focus on matters that aren’t great advertisements for the game so Friday night’s big clash between rugby’s traditional powerhouses hasn’t come a second too soon.
Who is going to win the appetising matchup between the Springboks and the All Blacks at Twickenham? Of course it matters to South Africans, and it matters to New Zealanders too. It always does when these two teams play each other, and it should always be thus. The talk from the two camps that they are not looking beyond Friday night is not just talk, it’s real.
But after a few weeks where much of the rugby has been either lopsided (Cardiff last weekend) or uninspiring (every game England has played in), and talk about red cards and disciplinary process has dominated the headlines (this isn’t supposed to be a book so let’s not start), the rugby at Twickenham has the potential to light up the sky enough to be seen across the English Channel.
The organisers of France 2023 will certainly welcome what has become a typical South Africa/New Zealand showdown in recent years - meaning physical, fast paced, good on the eye and a closely fought tussle that remains in the balance right until the end.
BOKS NEED TO REVERSE WHAT HAPPENED LAST TIME
The last game between these sides wasn’t that, which is why Bok centre Andre Esterhuizen, who gets his first chance to grapple with the Kiwis at this level of rugby, wasn’t wrong when he said earlier this week that his team don’t owe the All Blacks one, they owe themselves one.
Since the emphatic win over the All Blacks in Nelspruit last year that brought such a pall of gloom down over New Zealand rugby that you sensed even the Bok players were feeling sorry for their opponents, the tide has turned a bit. The game in Johannesburg was close, but only until the last few minutes, when the All Blacks ended up notching the winning bonus point that was to ultimately deny the South Africans the Castle Lager Rugby Championship title.
And then to Mount Smart Stadium in Auckland a few weeks ago, where a furious home start saw the Boks condemned to playing a catch-up game that they were never likely to win. The All Blacks ended up winning by 15. If there’s a repeat of that it won’t kill the South African World Cup pretensions, but it will stifle the momentum that has been picked up.
Yes, there are South African fans who’d prefer their side to go into the tournament as underdogs, but that’s really nonsense when you are referencing what is supposed to be a championship team. The Boks have lost enough when it comes to big opponents since that big win at Mbombela Stadium on 6 August last year - when it comes to fellow members of the World Rugby top four ranked teams, there hasn’t been a win in four starts (the Kiwis twice, France once and Ireland once).
If you want to really be rated as contenders and take into the tournament the confidence defending champions should have, it would not be good if those stats switched to played five, lost five after Friday night. And it is probably why the Bok skipper Siya Kolisi says that the World Cup will only come into view for him and his teammates after this game.
DON’T BET AGAINST MOODIE DOING WHAT JEAN DID
Given that the Boks are arguably at less full muster than New Zealand, who have only left out three players who are injured (Brodie Retallick, Shanon Frizell and Codie Taylor, two of whom won’t be ready for the RWC opener against France), a narrow loss in a good game won’t be a train smash for them.
But they do need a good performance and preferably a win so that when they transfer to France and the stage for the World Cup they do so with the wind at their backs and not sailing into a headwind.
The areas where the Boks aren’t at full strength are mostly at the back, and here coach Jacques Nienaber might have had a point when he said the players there are interchangeable. There have been some outstanding individual performances from a backline that is getting more running opportunity than used to be the case, and while Canan Moodie is ostensibly out of position at Twickenham, that might have been what many felt when Jean de Villiers was switched in 2005 from wing to inside centre for a Mandela Cup fixture against the Wallabies in Johannesburg.
De Villiers slotted in so well alongside Jaque Fourie in that game that it became the established midfield combination. It will take a lot to unseat Jesse Kriel, or for that matter Lukhanyo Am if circumstance sees him feature later in the World Cup, particularly as Moodie can play on the wing, but nonetheless it says a lot about Nienaber’s confidence in the 20 year-old’s abilities that he is prepared to play him against Rieko Iaone.
Esterhuizen has been good in every game he’s played in this international season and could surprise the All Blacks with his strength and bulky presence. Damian Willemse also has a chance at fullback to challenge Willie le Roux for the No 15 jersey.
FORWARDS NEED TO REPEAT NELSPRUIT START
The forwards though will be depended upon to lay the foundation and the absence from the opposition team of Retallick might just provide an opening for the Boks. The most important thing is that they hit their straps early, find their momentum early, for that is where they fell down both in Johannesburg last August and in Auckland more recently. In that sense it is good that the Boks have returned to the man of the match from the Nelspruit win, Malcolm Marx, as the starting hooker.
One thing that is certain is that the All Blacks won’t be going at anything less than full tilt as they seek to maintain their winning momentum ahead of the World Cup opener exactly two weeks hence.
“The gap between the last test and the France game is too big for us to use this game as a cotton wool exercise,” said their coach Ian Foster after naming his team. “Clearly we’ve got two or three players we’re looking after from an injury perspective but it’s a great test two weeks before a World Cup. The only way to go into this is full throttle.
“My heart is not in my mouth. It’s a test match. Some things are part of the game. If you go in half-hearted and worrying about the consequences (injuries) those things are almost guaranteed to happen. The same thing is going to happen in the World Cup. You don’t want injuries in any game. This is ideal for us. It’s the sort of build-up we need to make sure we keep climbing our performance levels.”
Exactly. And Nienaber thinks the same. So it could be a classic appetite whetter for what is to come in the next two months.
For the record, in their six previous tests against the Boks on neutral soil, the All Blacks have won four (2003 Melbourne 29-9, 2015 London 20-18, 2019 Yokohama 23-13, 2021 Townsville 19-17) and lost two (1999 Cardiff 18-22 and 2021 Gold Coast 29-31).
Teams
South Africa: Damian Willemse; Kurt-Lee Arendse, Canan Moodie, Andre Esterhuizen, Makazole Mapimpi; Manie Libbok, Faf de Klerk; Duane Vermeulen, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff. Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nche, Trevor Nyakane, Jean Kleyn, RG Snyman, Marco van Staden, Cobus Reinach, Willie le Roux.
New Zealand: Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Rieko Iaone, Jordie Barrett, Mark Telea, Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith, Ardie Savea, Sam Cane, Luke Jacobson, Samuel Whitelock, Scott Barrett, Tyrel Lomax, Dane Coles, Ethan de Groot. Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Tupou Vaa’i, Josh Lord, Dalton Papali’i, Cam Roigard, Anton Lienert-Brown.
Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Kick-off: 8.30pm Friday
Prediction: A close game.