It would be understandable if the staff at SA Rugby have already cleared a place in their trophy cabinet for the Castle Lager Rugby Championship trophy, but only a comprehensive win over the Pumas at the Mbombela Stadium will be good enough for the Springboks and their supporters.
It might be fanciful to think that Argentina will score three more tries than the Boks, for after all they’ve only won once in this country and that was against a team in 2015 that was badly prepared in the sense that the then coach Heyneke Meyer had put his players through a gruelling conditioning schedule in preparation for the Rugby World Cup in England.
Thank you, Nelspruit 🙏🏆#Springboks #ForeverGreenForeverGold
— Springboks (@Springboks) September 26, 2024
📸 Kaptured Concepts pic.twitter.com/KdCnXvO5JW
The permutations to determine the winner in the event of a tie on log points do not come down to points differential like so many assumed. Winning in Santiago last week means Argentina, if they win on Saturday, will have the advantage when it comes to the head to head clashes that become the measuring stick.
Mbombela is about to ROAR! 🦁#ForeverGreenForeverGold #Springboks pic.twitter.com/AcAQSYrepz
— Springboks (@Springboks) September 26, 2024
However, a win won’t be enough, they will also have to secure a try scoring bonus point, which means scoring three more tries than their opponents. That is highly unlikely to happen, so the contention that the Boks have pretty much clinched the Championship for the second time remains valid.
HAVE A LOT TO LOSE
What won’t be happening though if they lift the trophy after being defeated on the scoreboard is the wild and unbridled celebration that the achievement would normally deserve. For one thing the loss a week ago has done has put the Boks in a position where they have a lot to lose. A lot that is in terms of their standing on the world stage, both in terms of the World Rugby ranking, which bizarrely slipped due to that one defeat, and their status in the eyes of themselves, their opponents and supporters.
“Know that we’re playing for you” 🧬🇿🇦#Springboks#ForeverGreenForeverGold pic.twitter.com/82uy0KsH2z
— Springboks (@Springboks) September 26, 2024
After the two wins over the All Blacks, the Boks were seen to rule the world, but like the loss to Ireland in the second test in Durban in July, the defeat in Santiago has brought a changed perspective. Well, maybe not quite yet, for the Pumas did play well and are an unpredictable team these days, and the Boks were fielding a changed up team, but if they lose at Mbombela it will be a significant setback.
At home the Boks will start as overwhelming favourites, remembering of course that for all the errors they made in Santiago, they would still have won the game had Manie Libbok nailed his late penalty kick. Indeed, knowing the Boks, that missed kick has probably added about 20 to 30 per cent onto the force with which they will hit the Pumas on Saturday.
Game day is getting closer 🏉#Springboks #ForeverGreenForeverGold pic.twitter.com/hjErNgJFlY
— Springboks (@Springboks) September 25, 2024
Had they won the first game, the areas where they were short would have been glossed over. They’ve made a habit of winning while not playing their best, and they have arguably been quite short of their best all season, but when you are winning that doesn’t matter.
Following the loss, which is a rare enough event these days to be treated with exaggerated gravitas, what should have received a lot of attention in the buildup week to the Nelspruit game is the Bok discipline, which has been woeful. Hardly a game has gone by without one or two players being carded, and sometimes more. It didn’t cost them against the All Blacks, where it was the Kiwi cards that proved more significant, but it did cost them last week.
MORE OF THE FIRST PART OF LAST WEEK IS NEEDED
The lineout needs to return to its former efficiency, the finishing needs to become a lot more clinical, although having said that, the first 15 minutes in Santiago was as good as anyone can expect the Boks to be.
A reproduction of that period of play and extended over a longer period will surely lead to a comfortable Bok win, but the message has surely gone out to the team from the coaches that they do need to be tighter. That means on defence too, for as conceding four tries consecutively will suggest, that was an area of grave concern six days ago.
Everyone knows and understands why coach Rassie Erasmus is mixing up his selections as he is, and if anyone doesn’t they really should - if the Boks stick with the same team for the next three years they are going to arrive at RWC 2027 with a very ageing team. That players that are now 32 are still playing as well as they did when they won two consecutive World Cups does not mean they are still going to boast that form when they are 35.
But while it is understandable and explainable, the changes do explain the flashes of inconsistency that cost the Boks last week. And in that regard, there should be a better chance of everything fitting into place on Saturday, and the Boks scoring the comprehensive win that should be expected of them as double world champions.
That includes Libbok, who is a great attacking flyhalf and who I expect to shake off the negativity, and over-reaction of elements of the Bok support, and show just why he’s so highly rated by his coach, and indeed the opposition coach, Felipe Contemponi. Expect the Boks to win, just because they have to win and when they really have to, they usually do.
Teams
South Africa: Aphelele Fassi, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Manie Libbok, Jaden Hendrikse, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nche. Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Vincent Koch, Gerhard Steenekamp, Elrigh Louw, Kwagga Smith, Cobus Reinach, Handre Pollard, Lukhanyo Am.
Argentina: Santiago Carreras, Rodrigo Isgro, Matias Moroni, Santiago Chocobares, Mateo Carreras, Tomas Albornoz, Gonzalo Garcia, Joaquin Oviedo, Santiago Grondona, Juan Martin Gonzales, Tomas Lavinini, Pedro Rubiolo, Joel Sclavi, Julian Montoya (captain), Thomas Gallo. Replacements: Ignacio Ruiz, Ignacio Calles, Pedro Delgado, Franco Molina, Pablo Matera, Lautaro Bazon Velez, Lucio Cinti, Juan Cruz Mallia.
Referee: Ben O’Keefe (New Zealand).
Kick-off: 17.00
Prediction: Springboks to win by 15 or more