The Springboks haven’t beaten Ireland in eight years but just three matches have been played in that time and in terms of what to expect in Saturday’s big showdown between the No 1 and No 2 teams in the world at Loftus, it is only the last two that have any relevance.
The last win was in June 2016 in the deciding test of a three game series in what was then still Port Elizabeth, a fortnight after the Irish had broken new ground in this country by winning the opener in Cape Town. Then came a 38-3 thrashing in Dublin in 2017 at the start of the three game losing sequence.
🫡Get ready for epic battles
— Springboks (@Springboks) July 4, 2024
🤯Unforgettable moments
🙌As the best players and biggest teams battle it out.
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Why that game has no relevance to Saturday’s is because it was part of a different era. Allister Coetzee was still in charge and it was in the same season that the Boks lost 57-0 to the All Blacks in North Harbour. A different world. Much has changed since then. Indeed, it was that humiliation in Dublin that hastened Rassie Erasmus’ arrival as the Bok saviour, initially as both coach and director of rugby.
🫡Get ready for epic battles
— Springboks (@Springboks) July 4, 2024
🤯Unforgettable moments
🙌As the best players and biggest teams battle it out.
You don't want to miss this 🍿#ForeverGreenForeverGold #Springboks pic.twitter.com/hj25XdP3Q0
The two games that do have relevance are the narrow defeats suffered in Dublin in 2022 and last year in Paris in a Pool B game at the World Cup. Both of them can be summed up for South African fans, and the team itself no doubt, by the word frustration. Both of them were games that the Boks would have won had they kicked even half decently from the tee, and had they just been a bit more clinical and efficient in general play.
HANDRE NOT PART OF RECENT BOK/IRELAND HISTORY
So here’s the reason why South African fans should feel a lot more confident about their team’s chances, and it has nothing to do with home ground advantage or altitude.
Okay, those things do have a bit of sway, but what is probably more significant is that this will be the first of the above-mentioned games, stretching back to Cape Town in 2016, that Handre Pollard will be playing in.
Patrick Lambie started the first game in 2016 and was injured, to be replaced by Elton Jantjies for the rest of that series. Jantjies was also the flyhalf in the 38-3 defeat in 2017, and Damian Willemse was the No 10 and first choice goal-kicker in 2022. Manie Libbok missed the crucial kicks in Paris as Pollard was yet to join the squad.
The last two games were decided by fine margins. The Boks have the players this time to decide the fine margin in their favour, and it doesn’t just come down to the presence of Pollard, who if on song can kick them over like a metronome from both close range and, significantly because this is Loftus we are talking about, from long range too.
The Irish shouldn’t get away with mistakes that lead to penalties as easily this time.
ESKOM PUT THE LEINSTER LIGHTS OUT
Ace Irish fetcher Josh van der Flier might also find his prowess at the breakdown blunted more than it has been before by the presence of Kwagga Smith at No 8 for the Boks (Jasper Wiese, who is a different mould of player, played there last time) and Marco van Staden on the bench.
Van Staden, or Eskom as he is known, turned off the lights of the visiting back row when he played for the Vodacom Bulls against Van der Flier’s Leinster in the recent Vodacom United Rugby Championship semifinal.
There are plenty of questions to be answered in this game, which is what makes it so intriguing. For instance, did Ireland learn from Leinster’s defeat against the Bulls, or will that experience haunt them?
There are 15 Leinster players in the Ireland match day 23. One of them is a fullback in Jamie Osborne who normally plays centre.
Ireland coach Andy Farrell has said that he selected the 22-year-old, who normally plays centre and hasn’t played fullback since last October, because he has presence. Farrell must know what he’s doing, for it is a bold move to go for a rookie in the last line of defence at altitude and when the opposition have tactical kickers of the class of Faf de Klerk, Pollard and Willie le Roux.
Ireland do have a different defensive system to Leinster’s, or at least to put it differently just in case something has changed, they didn’t press high like Leinster do in the recent Guinness Six Nations.
JAPANESE ELEMENT MAY HELP THE HOSTS
So maybe the profit the Bulls got from their contestable kicks and kick and chase three weeks ago will be rendered irrelevant now. But still, it is a question, as is the one about the fatigue element, something the Irish media have made quite a bit of since both their URC contenders dropped out of that competition.
South Africa is now aligned to the northern hemisphere season and the overseas based players all play for northern based clubs. So there should be no difference between the two teams if there is fatigue, except that the Boks do have something the Irish don’t have - seven Japan based players in the starting side. That’s almost half the team.
The Japan league isn’t as intense as the northern leagues or Super Rugby for that matter and by all accounts players don’t get played into the ground there. It is because they are managed and used sparingly that it is generally accepted that playing in Japan lengthens playing careers.
Sometimes having too many Japan-based players can be a drawback, that being when the internationals are played too close to the end of the Japanese season and those players haven’t had a chance to acclimatise to the physicality of top level test rugby, but they’ve had plenty of time do so this time and their freshness could just be a Bok trump-card.
THE CHALLENGE SHOULD ENERGISE VISITORS
It would be wrong though to assume that Ireland will play like they are fatigued. Farrell has spoken about how motivated the players are to experience “the privilege of facing the world champions on their homecoming at a stadium like Loftus”, and those probably aren’t just words.
For many of the Ireland players this is a first for them, and top players get energised by big challenges. That’s why British and Lions series, at least those not played during Covid, are seldom disappointing from a quality viewpoint, no matter how much rugby the players have played or how long the season has been.
Bok captain Siya Kolisi said in an interview with supersport.com in April that he and his players were as motivated for this series as they were for the Lions in 2021. It will probably be the same for the Irish. For the players and the fans this series can’t start soon enough for it is going to be a riveting contest. It is just a pity it isn’t being played over three games instead of just two.
My money says the greater reliability from the tee of Pollard and the eagerness of the Boks to set the record straight will sway it in the home team’s direction, though not by the margin some pessimistic Irish critics appear to be fearing. Neither of these two sides are Mickey Mouse teams.
Teams
South Africa: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Handre Pollard, Faf de Klerk, Kwagga Smith, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nche. Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Gerhard Steenekamp, Vincent Koch, Salmaan Moerat, RG Snyman, Marco van Staden, Grant Williams, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.
Ireland: Jamie Osborne, Calvin Nash, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe, Jack Crowley, Craig Casey, Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier, Peter O’Mahony (captain), Tadhg Beirne, Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Furlong, Dan Sheehan, Andrew Porter. Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, James Ryan, Ryan Baird, Conor Murray, Ciaran Frawley, Garry Ringrose.
Referee: Luke Pearce (England).
Kick-off: 5pm (Live on Supersport)
Prediction: SA to win by 9