Why Pollard injury is in fact very worrying

During the Springbok advance to the Rugby World Cup title in Japan in 2019 there was always one recurring question that kept bugging both the South African management and the supporters back home - what if Handre Pollard gets injured?

The flyhalf was considered the player that the Boks could least do without. There were other crucially important players, and Duane Vermeulen was arguably a close second to Pollard in terms of being indispensable given the role he was playing for his team. There was a wide gap between both those players and the next best in their position.

What Pollard brought was reliability, and experience. The then coach Rassie Erasmus had always spoken about the importance of experience when it comes to the pivot position in a World Cup, and history did back his view. There have been very few Rugby World Cup winning teams who managed the feat without having a player in the No 10 who had played at least 30 or 40 international games.

HISTORY SHOWS A WORLD CUP TREND

Some might cite New Zealand’s win in 2011 as an outlier, for in that World Cup Dan Carter was injured and the All Blacks eventually had to rely on fourth or fifth choice flyhalf Stephen Donald to kick a crucial second half penalty. Aaron Cruden started the game in the No 10.

However, it could be contended that the 2011 final was one of the most bizarre World Cup deciders ever - the French had lost two games in the Pool stages, one of them being to the All Blacks, who thrashed them 37-17. There was probably no coincidence that Carter was playing in that game where they won so comfortably and he wasn’t in the final, where the All Blacks eventually had to rely on some dicey refereeing calls to win by a solitary point (8-7).

History reflects that Carter did get his chance to play in a World Cup final in 2015, where the All Blacks were far more comprehensive and convincing winners against the Wallabies. That was in keeping with a trend that extends back to the end of the amateur era.

Butch James had played the bulk of his 42 games for South Africa when the Boks won the 2007 final against England, and he had the experienced and gifted Fourie du Preez alongside him. In 2003 Jonny Wilkinson won it for England, no more needs to be said, and four years earlier it was Stephen Larkham playing the role of general for the triumphant Wallabies.

A CATCH-22

Erasmus’ belief that experience at No 10 is one of the most vital ingredients for World Cup success does mean that he has to concede that there is a perennial catch-22 for coaches who have Webb Ellis trophy ambitions. Ideally, there should be an experienced back up to the starting flyhalf, and that is hard to achieve.

Elton Jantjies might have progressed further in his international career for instance, and might be more reliable at the highest level now, had Heyneke Meyer, who coached the Boks during Jantjies’ break-through years at the Emirates Lions, given him more opportunity to play.

Jantjies, who possibly because he’s never had an extended run as first choice has blown hot and cold throughout his international career, was the back up to Pollard in 2019 but wasn’t called on to perform a role in the match day squad during the knock-out phases. That was because of the South African decision to go with a 6/2 split between forwards and backs on the bench.

The experienced Frans Steyn covered all outside back positions, which was far from ideal when it came to flyhalf, but the Boks just had to pray that Pollard wasn’t injured. He wasn’t, and he kicked a pressure penalty to win the semifinal against Wales before cutting a commanding presence in his role as game driver in the final against England.

BOKS PROFITED FROM CIRCUMSTANCE IN 2022

The catch-22 dilemma faced by current Bok coach Jacques Nienaber would have partially been eased last year by two situations that developed - the first was the injury to Pollard that saw him ruled out for the second half of the international season, and the other was the controversy around Jantjies that prevented him from playing beyond the early part of the Rugby Championship.

It meant that other alternatives had to be tried, with Damian Willemse, who hadn’t played No 10 for quite a while at his franchise, the DHL Stormers, stepping into the breach. When Willemse was injured for the final Rugby Championship game against Argentina, Frans Steyn stepped in.

The memory of the success the Boks achieved when they decided to run back kick receipt against Italy and England in the last two games of the end of year tour will prompt some to suggest Pollard’s recurring ankle injury, which has prompted Erasmus to admit concern about his chances of making the World Cup, is a blessing in disguise.

That though is only a statement that can come from someone who either suffers memory loss or has selective memory. The Boks would have won their showdown with the world No 1 team, Ireland, had they had the services of a reliable place-kicker. The Boks kicked a shower that day, and while the kicking from the tee was on point the following week against France, the likes of Faf de Klerk are too new to the pressure of being frontline kicker to be consistently relied upon.

WILLEMSE DOESN”T PLAY PIVOT FOR HIS FRANCHISE

Willemse was outstanding at times at flyhalf on tour, and he is a gifted player, but he does not operate as the frontline place kicker at the Stormers. And he didn’t get one start in the No 10 jersey for his franchise in the recent Vodacom United Rugby Championship.

Provided Pollard makes it through his injury and gets to play in the World Cup, the fact Pollard won’t be playing in the southern hemisphere Championship games next month might indeed be a blessing in disguise. It gives Willemse, Jantjies and Manie Libbok a chance to play there in the interim and build up more experience for a possible emergency role at the World Cup.

But emergency is what South Africans should hope it is limited to, and certainly not the entire World Cup campaign. The Boks will need the calm, steady experience of Pollard when the play-off games arrive as he has faced down that pressure before and come through it.

While Libbok was the form SA flyhalf in the recent URC, his often erratic form leaves a question over his ability to properly make the step up to international level. He suits the Stormers’ playing style and adventurous approach at URC level but can the Boks risk the kind of Libbok brain fart that gifted Munster the trophy after the Stormers had clawed their way back to take the lead?

Of course the Stormers coaches back Libbok and that is a big part of why he has been successful at the Cape franchise, but even they will admit that you can never quite be sure what to expect from him. He will win you a lot of games, but he might lose you a few too. Munster would not have been in the final had it not been for the way Libbok sprayed his kicks in the Stormers’ penultimate league game against those opponents.

As for Willemse, he showed huge potential on the last end of year tour, but when he plays there is a place kicking vulnerability that the Boks wouldn’t want to risk at a World Cup. The fact he hasn’t started at flyhalf at any level since the Boks beat England at Twickenham last November is also surely a problem too. World Cups tend to be won by teams who have flyhalves who work there in their day jobs. A World Cup is a heck of a place to be moonlighting.