There are four big games that shape up as either Pool deciders or clashes that will plunge the loser into dire peril in their group as Rugby World Cup 2023 gets off to a blockbusting start in France this weekend.
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The France/New Zealand game that starts the show in Paris on Friday will decide Pool A, as the team that loses the opener will not lose again and neither will the winner. The next best challenger in the group is Italy, and they don’t have the firepower to match either the French or the All Blacks.
It’s a similar story for Argentina and England, who face off in Marseille on Saturday and should both be too good for the rest of their Pool. By contrast, in the two games on Sunday between South Africa and Scotland and Wales and Fiji the loser is going to find itself on the back foot in a three way fight for survival.
As we don’t really know yet what form the other teams might carry through the Pool phase, you never know what is on the line when an early game is a likely Pool decider. That’s because the importance of finishing first or second in your pool depends on the identity of your opposition in the quarterfinal.
POOL PHASE CARRIES CURVE-BALL POTENTIAL
A good example of that was 2011. Many South Africans cheered when Ireland beat Australia to ensure they, and not the Wallabies, topped their Pool. That just tends to be the way it is when the underdog beats a more favoured team, and back in those days it was the Aussies who were more favoured.
But there was a curve-ball for the Springboks. They’d worked hard to top their Pool in a quest to play the second best team in their opposite pool, which they expected to be Ireland, in the quarterfinal. Yet the Irish result meant that they had to face the Wallabies, who they were wanting to avoid. And the rest, including referee Bryce Lawrence and a clutch of Bok errors later, became an unwanted part of the Springboks’ otherwise mostly proud history at World Cups.
Would the Boks have gone better had they played Ireland in that quarterfinal 12 years ago? The chances are they would have, for there was more of a chasm in rugby strength between the respective nations back then. The divide between the Boks and the Wallabies was much smaller.
ALL BLACKS FACE SIMILAR SCENARIO TO 2019
The kind of no-man's land, or uncertainty about what you want, referenced by that 2011 example has repeated itself many times. Had Ireland put up a better challenge in their quarterfinal against New Zealand four years ago the Kiwis might have regretted finishing ahead of South Africa in their Pool.
The Pool had been decided in the first round, with the All Blacks winning 23-13 in Yokohama, but it nearly became a poisoned chalice for the Kiwis in the sense that they played Ireland, who at the start they would have considered more dangerous than Japan or Scotland.
The All Blacks face a similar scenario now. They will either face South Africa in their quarterfinal, or an Irish team that has improved so much since 2011 that they are now ranked top in the world and start this tournament as one of the favourites. Who do you choose? Which one would you rather avoid? They will probably only really know the answer once the tournament has started and they know which team is in better form and therefore more dangerous.
It will be the same for France. The hosts face the Boks or Ireland, the two teams ahead of them on the current World Rugby rankings list. It really is six of one and half a dozen of the other.
TIMES ARE CHANGING
History does reflect that all but one winner of the World Cup has been a team that has not won its group. That was South Africa in Japan in 2019, where they also made history by becoming the first team to win the Webb Ellis trophy after losing a Pool game. But times are changing, and Siya Kolisi’s team changed the trend.
A trend that is impossible to change of course is the one that has team’s knocked out of the World Cup in the group phase going home, so there shouldn’t be any debate over where the real pressure is this weekend.
The pools where there is potential jeopardy for competitors in terms of them maybe not making the cut for the playoffs though are Pool B, where only two of South Africa, Ireland and Scotland will advance, and Pool C, the so-called ‘Pool of Opportunity’, where Australia, Wales and Fiji will be involved in a bun fight. That makes Sunday night’s two games between first the Boks and Scotland and then Wales and Fiji in Bordeaux particularly important. Both carry knock-out potential.
First round previews:
Friday September 8, 2023
France v New Zealand (9pm, Paris)
These two teams met in the first ever Rugby World Cup final in New Zealand in 1987 and there will be some who might still be betting on a repeat this year. Certainly this is a repeat of the 2019 Pool opener between the All Blacks and the Springboks, in the sense that it is between two of the favourites.
There have been some great clashes between these two sides down the years at World Cup, not least the two shock French wins in the 1999 semifinal in London and the 2007 quarterfinal in Cardiff, but this time around it is France that start as favourites to win as there has been a substantial shift in the balance of power in recent years.
The All Black defeat to South Africa in their final warmup game, particularly the magnitude of it, should have sent some alarm bells clanging through New Zealand rugby. While the All Blacks were never going to start as favourites, they are even more in the underdog role now after a Bok team that has similar strengths to France was so dominant in London two weeks ago.
The last time the sides met the French won comfortably and while it is unlikely to be as one-sided this time, the same team should win that won in 2021. If you write the All Blacks completely you do so at your peril as there is too much individual talent in the team, but France shouldn’t suffer the same calamitous start that they did when Argentina were the opponents in the corresponding game in 2007.
Prediction: France to win by 8
Saturday September 9, 2023
Italy v Namibia (1pm, Saint-Etienne)
Italy completed their buildup with a comprehensive win over Japan and should be favoured to continue that winning form when they clash with a lowly ranked team that will be nonetheless be watched with interest by people from neighbouring South Africa.
Prediction: Italy to win by 20.
Ireland v Romania (3.30pm, Bordeaux)
Of all the top contenders in this year’s World Cup, Ireland have the easiest start. Romania conceded more than 50 points to Italy a few weeks back and it should be a similar score in this game.
Prediction: Ireland to win by around 50.
Australia v Georgia (6pm, Paris)
Australia have yet to win under Eddie Jones but they did show signs of growth in their most recent match, albeit a fairly big defeat to France. Georgia were competitive in the first half against Scotland a few weeks back and their improvement has been impressive in recent years but the Wallabies should have enough to give Jones his first victory.
Prediction: Wallabies to win by 15
England v Argentina (9pm, Marseille)
England have dropped so low as to be ranked eighth at present, but their clash Argentina does rival the other two mentioned games in terms of overall gravitas and potential impact on their Pool. England’s poor run of form has elicited fears among their supporters that even Samoa, who came close to beating Ireland recently, could beat them, but realistically the Marseille game does present itself as a Pool decider between two established rugby nations.
England made one surprise selection for this game, with coach Steve Borthwick opting for Alex Mitchell, who was only included in the 33-man squad belatedly as a replacement for the injured Jack van Poortvliet, at scrumhalf. There’s some optimism in the English media that the selection heralds a possible brave change of approach from Borthwick but it may be clutching at straws.
On current form it is hard to back England to go far in this World Cup, but they are the northern hemisphere nation with the most World Cup pedigree if you consider they won in 2003 and played finals in 1991, 2007 and 2019. They might just switch on now that the main event has arrived, but don’t bet on it happening. Argentina should edge this one.
Prediction: Argentina by 8
Sunday September 10, 2023
Japan v Chile (1pm, Toulouse)
Chile are the lowest ranked team at the World Cup (22nd) and their first appearance at a Rugby World Cup is likely to reflect that as they come up against the surprise package of the last two World Cups in the form of the Brave Blossoms from Japan. In many ways this is a reversal of roles for Japan, who have racked up a series of giant killing acts against more fancied opponents (South Africa in 2015 and Ireland and Scotland in 2019).
There will be a lot of eyes on Chile, who mostly hail from the same club that plays in the USA professional league. They should at least have the togetherness that comes from players knowing each other so well, but although Japan don’t look as good as they were in the past, the hgher ranked nation should be too good for the South American team.
Prediction: Japan by 20
South Africa v Scotland (5.45pm, Marseille)
The Springboks have close to the strongest team they could select from the players who have been included in the 33-man squad, with just lock Jean Kleyn and utility back Canan Moodie missing because of minor injuries. The Scots had yet to name their team at the time of writing, but there are no prizes for guessing that Richie Gray’s men will be leaning heavily on the speed with which they can get the ball back to a dangerous backline spearheaded by the mercurial flyhalf Finn Russell.
The Boks were too good for the All Blacks at forward last time out and look to be running into formidable form. This is a tricky opening game for the South Africans but they should have too much firepower up front and are likely to win with something to spare.
Prediction: Springboks by at least 10.
Wales v Fiji (9pm, Bordeaux)
Those of us who benefitted from it because of the way it suddenly cleared up hotel room space for the Marseille quarterfinal week, with Welsh supporters opting out of the trip, won’t forget in a hurry Fiji’s great win over the team from the Principality in 2007. It set up a quarterfinal between Fiji and the eventual tournament winners, John Smit’s South Africa.
This is a difficult one to call just because Fiji can be so unpredictable, but Wales have become much better at World Cups since that 2007 tournament. They were unlucky to not make the final in 2011 - remember the Sam Warburton red card early in that game - while in 2015 they got out of the so-called pool of death at the expense of England. They were only denied by a late Fourie du Preez try in their quarterfinal, while in 2019 Handre Pollard’s penalty ended their dream late in the semifinal.
Wales struggled in the Six Nations in their first campaign with Warren Gatland back as head coach but have shown signs of resurgence in the warmup phase. They might just sneak a close win in a match that should be a must watch even though it clicks off quite late for a Sunday night.
Prediction: Wales to sneak it.