The first test of the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Series at Ellis Park on Saturday is a massive moment as both the Springboks and All Blacks go all out to establish the early advantage, but the home team’s coach Rassie Erasmus doesn’t see it as a do or die juncture.
Indeed, listening to Erasmus speak on the day of the team announcement two days out from the Johannesburg battle one thing became clear - the Bok coach believes the series between the No 1 and No 2 teams in the world will be decided by which of them is the fresher when the third game at Soccer City arrives on 5 September.
And that is what he is working towards and where he backs his team to come out top in the battle for the first hold of the RGR trophy that was unveiled at a function in the Johannesburg function of Bryanston on Wednesday.
“I firmly believe that the series will probably be won in game three or four, that the decider will be match three or maybe match four, so the big challenge is keeping everyone anxious and excited and eager to play,” said Erasmus.
“We have worked out who should play when and who shouldn’t play when, and we will be making a few changes for next week (the second test in Cape Town) if this game goes our way.”
Erasmus explained that the selections were made for this week with that second game at DHL Stadium and beyond that in mind.
“Sous (Franco Mostert) is fit to play but he is under-cooked. He has had just four minutes of playing time in six weeks. He got injured very early in the one game he played (against the Barbarians in Gqeberha on 20 June). Lood de Jager has struggled with different injuries over the last seven to eight months.
“Our S and C (strength and conditioning) guys are doing a lot of work with them to make sure they are ready to play later in the series. This is not the game that will determine the outcome of the series. It is about who is standing when we get to the deciding games of the series. Siya Kolisi is the same. He probably could have played in this game, but we want him to be 100 per cent for the next game in his home town of Cape Town. We don’t want to have walking wounded later in the series.”
𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊𝐈𝐍𝐆: Rassie Erasmus names his Springbok team to face the All Blacks in Test one of #RugbysGreatestRivalry at Ellis Park, with Doogz set for his 100th cap in the Green and Gold 🇿🇦🚨 pic.twitter.com/aQPlfLvFGC
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) August 20, 2026
EXPECTING HIGH ATTRITION RATE
Erasmus says he is expecting both sides to have lost six to seven players to injury by the time the third test arrives.
And he has a fresh memory of what happened in 2021, when the Boks came from a defeat in the first test to win the series.
“A loss in the first test will obviously hurt, but we found in the Lions series that you can lose the first game and come back to win the series,” said Erasmus.
“But you can lose the first one and win the next two. Make no mistake, the pressure is certainly on. This is a massive test series. And the team that loses first will be under more pressure. But we lost the opening game of a World Cup (in 2019) and still won the trophy.
“I’ve looked at the playing minutes of each squad. From over the past six weeks. I don’t think what players have done before these six weeks building up to the series is that relevant. What is relevant is the last six weeks, and the stats there show that the All Blacks have played an average of 200 minutes a man versus 130 minutes for our players. We think it is very important to keep the guys fresh. There will be six or seven injuries in each camp by the time we reach the third test.”
EXPECT MUCH CHANGED TEAM FOR CAPE TOWN
From what Erasmus said, the smart money will be on the Boks fielding a much changed up team for the second test.
And they can do that - last year they selected a team that didn’t look that different to the one that will play at Ellis Park for the Eden Park battle in the Castle Lager Rugby Championship, but made several changes for the next game in Wellington and won 43-10.
Erasmus will be aware that the likes of Manie Libbok and Canan Moodie have thrived in the past big wins over the All Blacks - Wellington last year and in London before the 2023 World Cup when the Boks won 35-7 - and will be confident that he has depth where New Zealand, who start with a vastly less experienced bench in the first test, may not.
He says it will be “a grind” and it will - four tests in four weeks, and a flight between continents within that time-span, is brutal.
Erasmus was in a relatively under-stated mood in the final press conference before the real hostilities start, but what he said was crystal clear in intent and laid down the marker.
The first RGR trophy lift will be by the team with the freshest players and who have been best able to rotate selections when the real business end of the series arrives.