If Saturday’s win in Buenos Aires over Argentina proved one thing, it is that the Springbok coaching team deserve a lot of credit when it comes to strengthening the depth of the current national squad.
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But at the same time they have created headaches for themselves as they look to put a squad of 43 into 33 ahead of Tuesday’s announcement at SuperSport of the side that will attempt to defend the Webb Ellis crown in France in September.
The luxury of some of the performances has meant that the Boks have the impossible task of who to leave out, rather than who to include in a squad where a number of players will be unlucky if they don’t make it.
But that is always the case with a World Cup announcement where irrepressible players such as Marcell Coetzee missed out in 2015 and 2019, and Heinrich Brussow also missed the cut in 2015. There will always be the player that loses out while those in the stand-bye squad may not be as unlucky as they think.
In both the Boks wins in 2007 and 2019 they suffered injuries early and called up two players to the squad. That opens doors for other players so while some players may miss out, it may not be the end of the World Cup for them.
The Boks will select a 33-man squad for the showpiece tournament, plus five travelling squad members for their final warm-up matches against Wales and New Zealand, with those players being in the standbye squad.
There is also the luxury that if a player does go down, it is a simple overnight flight to Europe to fly in a replacement, and not the long-haul that Japan was for players at the World Cup.
That being said, these are the big conundrums for the Bok management as they go into their World Cup selection meeting.
GAMBLE ON THE WALKING WOUNDED?
Key players for the Springboks such as Siya Kolisi, Handre Pollard and Ox Nche all are nursing injuries and haven’t played a part in the international season thus far. While all are on track to return from their injuries in the next few weeks, is there enough time to get them up to speed and in match form for the World Cup? The Bok management certainly believe they will be ready when the tournament starts on September 10, but have been developing back-ups along the way.
Pollard’s place has been filled by Manie Libbok - who, other than a few goalkicking woes in Buenos Aires, has done exceptionally well - well enough to see Elton Jantjies relegated to fourth choice in the squad.
Kolisi is and will be the captain - and even if he isn’t fit is likely to be in France as part of the management group but Marco van Staden has been good in his cameos for the Boks if Kolisi is unsure.
Nche’s prognosis is another week or two from the pectoral injury he picked up in training with the Boks in Pretoria, and should he be good enough in terms of recovery, the Boks will stick with him as part of their front row stocks.
VERSATILITY VS SPECIALISTS
The Boks have relied a lot on versatility over the past few seasons under Rassie Erasmus and now Jacques Nienaber and it’s easy to see why. There are countless reasons why a versatile player across the board would trump a specialist, and in many cases in the Bok squad you have players who can cover a number of positions. Willie le Roux has been playing at 10 in Japan, Damian Willemse can virtually cover almost any position in the backline while Jessie Kriel has been good wherever he is chosen for the Boks.
Up front the swinger props - Vincent Koch, Trevor Nyakane and Thomas du Toit - all can play both sides of the scrum while utility forwards like Jean-Luc du Preez, Franco Mostert and Deon Fourie can play more than one position in the pack.
The key will be to get the mix right - to get as close to the perfectly balanced squad as possible while plugging all the holes and mixing form and experience at the same time. The Boks are likely to opt for some versatility, although it will be interesting to see when it comes down to it if versatility or a specialist gets the key back-up positions in the squad.
THE KEY SPLIT - FORWARDS VS BACKS
While 2019 had teams with 31 players, the extra two players gives some interesting options when it comes to splitting the squad between forwards and backs, with the key question being if a side opts for the 18-15 split or adds an extra forward at the expense of a back with a 19-14 split. Much will depend on the options the Boks go for and whether they feel they need the luxury of an extra forward or not.
When it comes to the squad you normally start with the specialist positions - with an extra scrumhalf and hooker being essential, as well as a decision whether to take five or six props.
If Nche is fit, the prop equation becomes easier with Steven Kitshoff, Frans Malherbe, Vincent Koch, Thomas du Toit and Trevor Nyakane likely to be six, or one of the swinger props - falling away if it is just five. Given the Boks history six props are likely to go to the World Cup, while the big choices come with scrumhalf and hooker.
At scrumhalf, even though Jaden Hendrikse didn’t play a match in the international season, his form over the last year - where he displaced Faf de Klerk in the starting line-up - should be enough to see him get a place in the squad alongside the blond halfback . But if that is the case then the Boks must choose between Grant Williams, Cobus Reinach and Herschel Jantjies for the third spot - with Williams being able to double up on wing as well. Do they go for the experience of Reinach or Williams’ rising star?
?? "That is going to be the most heartbreaking job of the coaching staff!"
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) August 6, 2023
John Smit and Victor Matfield are still unsure which scrumhalves will miss out on the Springboks' Rugby World Cup squad. pic.twitter.com/rogYxi6a2r
At hooker the starting two of Malcolm Marx and last weekend’s captain Bongi Mbonambi are clearly in the squad. The choice between Joseph Dweba as a third hooker and Deon Fourie, who can play both hooker and flank, is an interesting one.
ON A WING AND A PRAYER
At the back it is the same conundrum - who would leave the 20-year old Canan Moodie out of the squad after his performance in Buenos Aires? But if the Boks are to take three wingers and a utility - or four wingers - it will also affect the decision in the midfield, where both Kriel and Lukhanyo Am can play two positions and Damian de Allende has played at 13 as well. Andre Esterhuizen’s strong performances mean he should have a good shot, but it all depends on the make-up of the side - and the balance of versatility against specialists.
And does Makazole Mapimpi make it? Do you throw away the World Cup winning experience of one of the Springboks’ biggest stars over the past few seasons? Kurt-Lee Arendse has scored 10 tries in 11 games and Cheslin Kolbe would walk into any test team in the world? There certainly is a strong case to make for taking four wingers to France.
The problem is that if you take three scrumhalves, two flyhalves and Damian Willemse as a utility and four wingers you get left with three midfield positions. Take three wingers and Esterhuizen is likely to go? Either way somewhere there will be someone who is unlucky.
LOCK IT IN
The same goes for lock - where Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager (despite not having much game time) and RG Snyman (the supersub) seem to have locked their places in. Much of this decision will come down to the fact that both Pieter-Steph du Toit and Franco Mostert can cover at lock if needed, so whether the Boks take three, four or five locks is an open secret. Jean Kleyn and Marvin Orie both have done enough to warrant selection, with Kleyn giving physicality that is more direct than the other candidates.
Again this decision will impact on the loose forwards - because if you take six props, two hookers and a versatile Deon Fourie, for instance, three locks that are locked in and Mostert as a utility that gives you 13 players, with six spots left to fill from either loose forwards or an extra lock.
Kolisi, Duane Vermeulen, Kwagga Smith, Du Toit and Jasper Wiese seem to have their spots booked, so do you take an extra lock or extra loose forward in Van Staden, Evan Roos or Jean-Luc du Preez? Whichever way the selection goes there will be a player unlucky.
With all this in mind, the Bok selectors will have a tough task, and the announcement is likely to be a strong side with good solid back-up to defend their title. But the debates will go on for days.
BOK CONTENDERS FOR THE WORLD CUP SQUAD
FORWARDS
Props: Vincent Koch, Ox Nche (both Sharks), Steven Kitshoff (Ulster/IRL), Frans Malherbe (Stormers), Trevor Nyakane (Racing 92/FRA), Gerhard Steenekamp (Bulls), Thomas du Toit (Bath/ENG)
Hookers: Joseph Dweba (Stormers), Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears/JPN), Bongi Mbonambi (Sharks)
Locks: Jean Kleyn, RG Snyman (both Munster/IRL), Eben Etzebeth (Sharks), Lood de Jager (Saitama Wild Knights/JPN), Marvin Orie (Perpignan/FRA)
Back row:Deon Fourie, Evan Roos (both Stormers), Siya Kolisi (Racing/FRA, capt), Franco Mostert (Honda Heat/JPN), Jean-Luc du Preez (Sale Sharks/ENG), Kwagga Smith (Yamaha Jubilo/JPN), Marco van Staden (Bulls), Pieter-Steph du Toit (Toyota Verblitz/JPN), Duane Vermeulen (unattached), Jasper Wiese (Leicester Tigers/ENG)
BACKS
Scrumhalves: Jaden Hendrikse, Grant Williams (both Sharks), Herschel Jantjies (Stormers), Faf de Klerk (Canon Eagles/JPN), Cobus Reinach (Montpellier/FRA)
Flyhalves: Manie Libbok (Stormers), Handre Pollard (Leicester Tigers/ENG)
Wings: Kurt-Lee Arendse, Canan Moodie (both Bulls), Cheslin Kolbe (Suntory Sungoliath/JPN), Makazole Mapimpi (Sharks)
Centres: Damian de Allende (Saitama Wild Knights/JPN), Lukhanyo Am (Sharks), Andre Esterhuizen (Harlequins/ENG), Jesse Kriel (Canon Eagles/JPN)
Fullback: Willie le Roux (Bulls)
Utility back: Damian Willemse (Stormers)